達沃斯和新興市場的美好理想終結了嗎
Ever since emerging markets became a major asset class in the early 1990s, a parade of potentates, policy makers and corporate chieftains have flocked to the stylish village of Davos in the Swiss Alps in the hope of becoming the latest global meme.
自從新興市場在90年代初成爲一項主要資產類別以來，許多當權者、決策者和企業負責人蜂擁前往瑞士阿爾卑斯山區的時髦小鎮達沃斯，希望成爲全球最新的米姆(meme)。
The growth revolution in China, the emergence of oil-driven sovereign wealth in the Middle East and Brazil’s economic miracle have all been celebrated, one time or another, by the global elites who gather at the World Economic Forum in Davos each January to ponder the world.
每年1月份全球精英都會聚集在達沃斯參加世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)，對世界大事進行思考。而中國的增長革命、中東地區由石油驅動的主權財富的崛起，以及巴西的經濟奇蹟都曾得到過他們的歡慶。
From 2000 on, the Davos boom and the emerging markets boom have been pretty much one and the same, a living ideal of globalization helped by central banks that have printed trillions of dollars of new money.
從2000年以來，達沃斯的紅火和新興市場的繁榮幾乎完全是一回事，代表了一種由印製了數萬億美元新鈔票的各國央行幫助實現的全球化生活理想。
But now, as interest rates in the United States begin to rise, these dollars have begun to flow out of China, the Middle East and Latin America. Growth rates are stumbling, debt levels rising and geopolitical fears spreading.
但現在，隨着美國利率開始上升，這些錢開始從中國、中東和拉丁美洲流出。新興市場增長率受挫，債務水平上升，而地緣政治的擔憂也在蔓延。
Over the last year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed by worries that China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to $20 a barrel and Brazil’s problems will worsen.
過去一年中，大批資金加快了外流的步伐，而這一現象主要由幾點擔憂引發：中國將失去對貨幣的控制力、油價將下降到每桶20美元、巴西的問題將更爲惡化。
And many now say that this rosy, Davos-fueled notion of a world powered by emerging-market growth and innovation needs to be reconsidered.
現在許多人提出，需要重新考慮一下這種達沃斯倡議的由新興市場增長和創新驅動的美好世界的概念。
“I have long maintained that the emerging-market hype was oversold when it was clear that what was going on was high commodity prices and cheap money,” said Dani Rodrik, an expert on globalization at the Harvard Kennedy School.
“我一直堅持認爲，新興市場熱太過頭了，很明顯不過是大宗商品價格高企、信貸寬鬆，”哈佛大學肯尼迪學院的全球化問題專家丹尼·羅德里克(Dani Rodrik)說。
As for the World Economic Forum in Davos, he said that over the last 10 years it had become an echo chamber of sorts.
至於達沃斯世界經濟論壇，他認爲，在過去10年中，它已成爲某種自說自話的迴音室。
“What we are seeing now is lower growth and policy conflicts between the emerging and the developed world,“ said Mr. Rodrik, who will not be making the trip this time around. “It is going to be a different type of Davos this year.”
“我們現在看到的是更低的增長率，以及新興經濟體和發達國家之間的政策衝突，”羅德里克說。這一次他不會去達沃斯參加論壇。“今年的達沃斯將會與往年不同”。
Actually, the echo chamber has not been working as advertised. Since January 2010, emerging markets as an investment have produced a poor return. BlackRock’s benchmark exchange traded fund for emerging market stocks is down 25 percent, and most of that decline came in the last year.
事實上，這座迴音室一直沒有達到宣傳中的效果。自2010年1月以來，新興市場的投資回報率相當糟糕。貝萊德集團(BlackRock)的新興市場股票交易所基準指數基金下跌了25%，而且大部分下跌是在去年發生的。
Perhaps the biggest sign that global investors have lost faith is that for the first time since 1988 (when only the bravest souls invested in these countries), investors have pulled more money out of emerging markets than they have put in, according to research by the Institute of International Finance.
全球投資者失去信心的最大跡象或許是，根據國際金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)的調查，自1988年（當時只有最膽大的人才敢投資這些國家）以來，投資者在新興市場撤離的資金首次超過了投入的資金。
In an unusually blunt speech in Paris this month, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said that emerging nations needed a new model for growth after years of relying on easy money and high commodity prices.
本月在巴黎的一次異常直白的講話中，國際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)總裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，在經過多年的寬鬆貨幣政策和高企的大宗商品價格後，新興國家需要一種新的增長模式。
“Growth rates are down, and cyclical and structural forces have undermined the traditional growth paradigm,” Ms. Lagarde said. Moreover, she warned, the dollar’s continued strength against just about all emerging-market currencies could well result in a new round of financial uncertainty, pushing commodity prices and global growth forecasts even lower.
“增長率在下降，而週期性和結構性力量削弱了傳統的增長範式，”拉加德說。此外她還警告，美元對幾乎所有新興市場貨幣的繼續走強很可能導致新一輪的金融不確定性，進一步壓低大宗商品價格和全球經濟增長預期。
Since mid-2011, the dollar has gained more than 100 percent against emerging-market currencies in Turkey, Brazil and South Africa. And over the last six months, following China’s decision to depreciate the renminbi, previously robust monetary units in Singapore, Korea and Taiwan have also started to lose value against the dollar.
自2011年年中以來，美元對土耳其、巴西和南非等新興市場貨幣的匯率漲幅超過了100%。而在過去的六個月中，在中國決定讓人民幣走低後，此前新加坡、韓國和臺灣等地穩健的貨幣也紛紛開始對美元貶值。
“Our own estimates show that a slowdown of 1 percent in the emerging world would lower growth in advanced countries by at least about 0.2 percentage points,” Ms. Lagarde said.
“我們自己的估計顯示，新興市場經濟增長每放緩1%，將降低發達國家至少約0.2個百分點的經濟增長速度，”拉加德說。
Still, even with the gloom and doom surrounding emerging markets these days, there is little sign that standard bearers are forgoing their annual week in the Swiss mountains.
不過，儘管如今新興市場前景暗淡，但幾乎沒有跡象表明領軍人物們會放棄他們每年在瑞士山區度過的爲期一週的會議。
This year, more than 320 representatives from Brazil, Russia, India and China — the so-called BRIC community of emerging nations — will be in Davos — compared with 237 from these countries in 2010.
今年，來自“金磚四國”(BRIC)——巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國——的320多名代表將出現在達沃斯，而2010年這些國家派出的代表爲237人。
None of these representatives will be heads of state, though. In the past, Brazilian presidents and Vladimir Putin of Russia have led their countries’ delegations. This year, Russia is sending a deputy prime minister, Yury Trutnev, while China is sending a vice president, Li Yuanchao.
不過，這些代表中並沒有國家元首。過去，幾任巴西總統和俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)曾帶領本國代表團參會。今年，俄羅斯派出的是副總理尤里·特魯特涅夫(Yury Trutnev)，而中國帶隊的則是副主席李源潮。
Two large emerging markets that have been under significant stress of late will be sending their leaders. Turkey, recently rocked by terrorist attacks, will be represented by its prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. And the South African president, Jacob Zuma, who has gone through three finance ministers in the last five weeks, is also planning to show up.
近來承受着嚴重壓力的兩個大型新興市場將派出他們的領導人。最近遭受了恐怖襲擊的土耳其，將由其總理艾哈邁德·達武特奧盧(Ahmet Davutoglu)帶隊參加。而在過去五週換了三任財長的南非總統雅各布·祖馬(Jacob Zuma)，也計劃在論壇上露面。
The president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, whose popularity polls have sunk to single digits, will not be making an appearance, but her recently appointed finance minister, Nelson Henrique Barbosa-Filho, is scheduled to attend.
巴西總統迪爾瑪·羅塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)在民意調查中受歡迎度已降到個位數，不會在論壇上露面。但她新近任命的財政部長小納爾遜·恩裏克·巴博薩(Nelson Henrique Barbosa-Filho)計劃出席。
Ready to engage in some damage control will be the top executives at BTG Pactual, the Brazilian investment bank whose former chief executive, André Esteves, is under investigation for corruption.
巴西投資銀行百達集團(BTG Pactual)的高層管理人員們做好了控制損失的準備。該行的前首席執行官安德烈·埃斯特維斯(André Esteves)正在接受腐敗調查。
In terms of panels themed for developing nations, the World Economic Forum will be serving up the usual fare this year. One will explore how companies in emerging markets cope with laws that discriminate against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender workers. Another is more straightforward: What will the impact of higher interest rates in the United States be on emerging market growth?
在爲發展中國家設立的全會方面，世界經濟論壇將在今年呈上平常的討論主題。有一個將探討新興市場的企業如何應對歧視男女同性戀、雙性戀和跨性別員工的法律。另一個更直接：美國利率的提高對新興市場的增長有何影響？
But, as is always the case at the World Economic Forum, the meetings of genuine consequence will be the ones that you do not know are happening.
不過，真正重要的，是人們不知道的那些會晤。在世界經濟論壇上，向來如此。
That could mean Laurence D. Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, the world’s largest money management firm, sitting down with Jean-Paul Villain, an executive at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, or Fahad al-Mubarak, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s central bank and overseer of the country’s $650 billion foreign reserve stash.
這可能意味着，世界最大的資產管理公司貝萊德的首席執行官勞倫斯·D·芬克(Laurence D. Fink)和阿布扎比投資局(Abu Dhabi Investment Authority)高管讓-保羅·維蘭(Jean-Paul Villain)，或沙特阿拉伯央行行長、負責着該國6500億美元外匯儲備的法赫德·穆巴拉克(Fahad al-Mubarak)會坐下相商。
As oil prices sink, rumors have been rife that Middle East sovereign wealth funds — and Saudi Arabia in particular — have been calling in the billions of dollars of cash that they have allocated to global investment firms such as BlackRock. And traders say that the withdrawal of these funds, much of which has been invested in American stocks and bonds, has been a contributing factor to recently volatile markets.
隨着石油價格下跌，傳言四起，宣稱中東的主權財富基金，尤其是沙特阿拉伯，在收回投給貝萊德等全球投資公司的數十億美元。交易人員稱，這些基金撤資是導致市場最近不穩定的原因之一。它們當中很多投資了美國的股票和債券。
Or the chief executives of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase could wind up huddling with Fang Xinghai, the vice chairman of the China securities regulatory commission. The sharp swings in China’s stock market are having an outsize effect on markets in the United States, and the big American investment banks will want to hear what Mr. Fang’s strategy is for 2016.
或者，高盛(Goldman Sachs)和摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的首席執行官可能會和中國證監會副主席方星海碰頭。中國股市的劇烈波動極大地影響着美國的市場，而美國的大投行會想聽聽方星海爲2016年謀劃的策略。
But as central bankers, prime ministers and chief executives wrestle this week to make sense of it all, Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, has a fairly simple explanation: The impact on the developed world of a slowdown in China and other emerging markets is going to be greater than most people realize.
不過本週，在各大央行高管、政府部長和企業首席執行官努力想要弄明白一切時，摩根士丹利投資管理公司(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)的新興市場部門負責人魯吉·夏爾馬(Ruchir Sharma)卻給出了一個相當簡單的解釋：中國等新興市場放緩對發達國家的影響，會比大部分人認識到的更大。
“In 1997, the emerging world’s share of the global economy was 20 percent — now, it’s nearly 40 percent,” he said. “This is a big deal. What happens in China has an effect on the wider world, and I think that the Davos crowd has been slow to recognize this.”
“1997年時，新興市場在全球經濟中佔的份額是20%，現在則近乎40%，”他說。“這舉足輕重。中國發生的事情會影響外部世界，我認爲，達沃斯的與會者沒有及時意識到這一點。”
