著名學者加里•貝克爾的經濟學智慧

University of Chicago economist Gary S. Becker died on Saturday at age 83. He was a frequent contributor to these pages, including the excerpts below. A related editorial appears nearby:

上週六，芝加哥大學經濟學家、1992年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主加里•S•貝克爾(Gary S. Becker)逝世，享年83歲。貝克爾生前筆耕不輟，以下是他爲《華爾街日報》撰寫的部分文章節選。

'Prosperity Will Rise Out of the Ashes,' with Kevin M. Murphy, Oct. 29, 2001:

2001年10月29日發表的和凱文•M•墨菲(Kevin M. Murphy)共同撰寫的《灰燼中升起的繁榮》(Prosperity Will Rise Out of the Ashes)：

In the 19th century, John Stuart Mill commented on the rapidity of economic recovery from national disasters and wars. He recognized that nations recover quickly as long as they retain their knowledge and skills, the prime engines of economic growth. America retains its vast supply of both, which suggests that, contrary to fears, the Sept. 11 attacks are unlikely to worsen the medium- to long-term economic outlook.

Bloomberg News加里•S•貝克爾在19世紀，約翰•斯圖爾特•穆勒(John Stuart Mill)對國家經歷災害和戰爭後經濟的快速復甦做了解析。他認識到，只要這些國家保留了知識和技能，經濟就能快速復甦，知識和技能是推動經濟增長的主要引擎。美國在這兩方面做得很好，這意味着，美國在經歷了9/11恐怖襲擊後，其中長期經濟前景不太可能會像一些人擔心的那樣惡化。

The effects of the earthquake that hit the Japanese city of Kobe in 1995 illustrate Mill's conclusion. This quake destroyed more than 100,000 buildings, badly damaged many others, and left hundreds of thousands homeless. Over 6,000 people died. Estimates place the total loss at about $114 billion (more than 2% of Japanese GDP at the time). Yet it took only a little over a year before GDP in the Kobe region returned to near pre-quake levels.

日本神戶市1995年發生的地震帶來的影響證明了穆勒得出的上述結論。那場地震摧毀了超過100,000棟建築，其他許多建築也嚴重受損，致使數十萬人無家可歸，6,000多人在地震中喪生。當時估計的損失總額約爲1,114億美元，佔當時日本國內生產總值(GDP)的2%還多。然而神戶地區的GDP僅用了一年多一點的時間就恢復至接近震前的水平。

'The Double Benefit of Tax Cuts,' with Edward P. Lazear and Kevin Mr. Murphy, Oct. 7, 2003:

2003年10月7日發表的和愛德華•P•拉齊爾(Edward P. Lazear)以及墨菲共同撰寫的《減稅的雙重益處》(The Double Benefit of Tax Cuts)：

Our second point, that human as well as physical capital is key, derives from two pieces of evidence. Human capital--the skills embodied in individuals--accounts for about 70% of the total capital of the U.S., and a country's economic growth is closely tied to the human capital of its population. Countries that invest heavily in educating their citizens are also those that tend to experience high economic growth following such investments. For these reasons, it is important that tax policies encourage investment in human capital. Investment in human capital is responsive to take-home pay and therefore to tax rates, with the most direct effect coming from income tax.

相關閱讀專欄：悼念加里•貝克爾：爲中國人口改革建言我們的第二個觀點是，人力資本和實物資本一樣都非常重要，這個觀點源自以下兩個證據。人力資本、即每個人所體現出來的技能佔美國總資本的比例約爲70%，而一個國家的經濟增長和這個國家人口的人力資本密切相關。那些在公民教育方面大量投入的國家在進行這些投資後往往也會實現較高的經濟增速。正是因爲這些原因，實施能夠鼓勵人力資本投資的稅收政策非常重要。人力資本投資受到稅後工資影響，因此也受到稅率影響，其中最直接的影響來自所得稅。

A highly progressive income tax structure tends to discourage investment in human capital because it reduces take-home pay and the reward to highly skilled, highly paid occupations.

高累進所得稅結構往往會阻礙人力資本投資，因爲這一稅制會降低高技能、高薪職業人羣的稅後薪酬。

'Give Us Your Skilled Masses,' Nov. 30, 2005:

2005年11月30日發表的《美國應放開技術工人移民政策》(Give Us Your Skilled Masse)：

Other countries, too, should liberalize their policies toward the immigration of skilled workers. I particularly think of Japan and Germany, both countries that have rapidly aging, and soon to be declining, populations that are not sympathetic (especially Japan) to absorbing many immigrants. These are decisions they have to make. But America still has a major advantage in attracting skilled workers, because this is the preferred destination of the vast majority of them. So why not take advantage of their preference to come here, rather than force them to look elsewhere?

其他國家也應該放開針對技術工人的移民政策。我認爲日本和德國尤其應該如此。這兩國的人口都在迅速老齡化，而且很快將會出現人口下降，但兩國民衆（尤其是日本）都不贊同吸收大量移民。放開針對技術工人的移民政策是日本和德國不得不做出的決定。但美國在吸引技術工人方面仍具有很大的優勢，因爲美國仍然是絕大多數移民的首選目的地。因此，我們應該利用他們對移民到美國的偏愛，而不是逼着他們尋求移民到別的國家和地區。

'The Great Recession and Government Failure,' Sept. 2, 2011:

2011年9月2日發表的《大蕭條和政府失靈》(The Great Recession and Government Failure)：

The origins of the financial crisis and the Great Recession are widely attributed to 'market failure.' This refers primarily to the bad loans and excessive risks taken on by banks in the quest to expand their profits. The 'Chicago School of Economics' came under sustained attacks from the media and the academy for its analysis of the efficacy of competitive markets. Capitalism itself as a way to organize an economy was widely criticized and said to be in need of radical alteration.

人們普遍將金融危機和大蕭條的起源歸因於“市場失靈”。“市場失靈”主要指不良貸款以及銀行業爲尋求增加利潤所冒的過度風險。芝加哥經濟學派(Chicago School of Economics)對市場競爭功效的分析不斷受到媒體和學術界的攻擊。作爲一種經濟組織形式的資本主義廣受詬病，並被呼籲需要徹底改變。

Although many banks did perform poorly, government behavior also contributed to and prolonged the crisis. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates artificially low in the years leading up to the crisis. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two quasi-government institutions, used strong backing from influential members of Congress to encourage irresponsible mortgages that required little down payment, as well as low interest rates for households with poor credit and low and erratic incomes. Regulators who could have reined in banks instead became cheerleaders for the banks.

雖然許多銀行的表現的確很糟糕，但政府的行爲也是導致危機爆發且持續較長時間的原因。在危機爆發前的幾年裏，美國聯邦儲備委員會一直人爲將利率維持在較低水平。聯邦國民抵押貸款協會(Fannie Mae, 房利美)和聯邦住房貸款抵押公司(Freddie Mac, 房地美)這兩個準政府機構利用國會成員的有力支持鼓勵不負責任的抵押貸款行爲，當時人們所需繳納的首付款非常低；信用記錄不良以及收入較低且來源不穩的家庭也享有低貸款利率政策。那些原本應該控制銀行行爲的監管機構反而鼓勵銀行這麼做。

This recession might well have been a deep one even with good government policies, but 'government failure' added greatly to its length and severity, including its continuation to the present. In the U.S., these government actions include an almost $1 trillion in federal spending that was supposed to stimulate the economy. Leading government economists, backed up by essentially no evidence, argued that this spending would stimulate the economy by enough to reduce unemployment rates to under 8%.

就算政府實施了恰當的政策，這場經濟衰退的影響也可能是較爲深遠的，但“政府失靈”延長了危機的持續時間、加深了危機的嚴重程度，包括危機的影響一直持續到現在這一後果。在美國，這些政府行爲包括將近一萬億美元應用於刺激經濟增長的聯邦支出。政府的頂尖經濟學家聲稱這些支出能夠刺激經濟增長，足以讓失業率降至8%之下，但這些經濟學家的觀點根本沒有任何證據作支持。

Such predictions have been so far off the mark as to be embarrassing.

這樣的預測錯得離譜，達到了讓人難堪的程度。

' 'Basically an Optimist'--Still,' a Wall Street Journal Weekend Interview, March 27, 2010:

《華爾街日報週末版》(The Wall Street Journal Weekend) 2010年3月27日刊登的題爲《根本上是一個樂觀主義者》(Basically an Optimist)的專訪：

'But when Milton [Friedman] was starting out,' [Becker] continues, 'people really believed a state-run economy was the most efficient way of promoting growth. Today nobody believes that, except maybe in North Korea. You go to China, India, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, even Western Europe. Most of the economists under 50 have a free-market orientation. Now, there are differences of emphasis and opinion among them. But they're oriented toward the markets. That's a very, very important intellectual victory. Will this victory have an effect on policy? Yes. It already has. And in years to come, I believe it will have an even greater impact.'

（貝克爾）繼續說道：“然而在米爾頓•弗裏德曼(Milton Friedman)還沒出道時，人們真以爲計劃經濟是最有效的促進增長的方式。如今沒人這麼想，也許朝鮮除外。你到中國、印度、巴西、阿根廷、墨西哥甚至西歐去看看，年齡在50歲以下的多數經濟學家都擁護自由市場。現在這些經濟學家中間有着不同的理論重心和觀點，但他們都是支持以市場爲中心的。這是一個非常、非常重要的知識上的勝利。這個勝利會給政策帶來影響嗎？會的，政策已經受到影響了。我認爲未來幾年這種影響會變得更大。”

The sky outside his window has begun to darken. Mr. Becker stands, places some papers into his briefcase, then puts on a tweed jacket and cap. 'When I think of my children and grandchildren,' he says, 'yes, they'll have to fight. Liberty can't be had on the cheap. But it's not a hopeless fight. It's not a hopeless fight by any means. I remain basically an optimist.'

窗外天色開始變暗，貝克爾這時站起身來，把一些文件裝進公文包，然後穿上他的斜紋軟呢外套，帶上帽子。他說：“每當我想到自己的孩子和孫輩時，是的，他們都得努力鬥爭。自由不是輕易得來的，但這場鬥爭並非無望，無論如何都不會無望，從根本上來說我仍然是一個樂觀主義者。”