QE預期推高歐洲股市

The prospect of further stimulus measures from the European Central Bank this week helped equity bulls brush aside steep falls for Chinese stocks, renewed weakness for oil and copper prices and uncertainties about the forthcoming Greek election.

歐洲央行(ECB)本週有可能進一步採取刺激措施，這種前景幫助看漲股市的人忽略中國股市暴跌、油價和銅價再度下跌、以及即將舉行的希臘選舉的不確定性的影響。

Indeed, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 equity index rose 0.2 per cent to a seven-year closing high of 1409.92, although that was well down from the day’s high of 1,418.11. The Xetra Dax in Frankfurt climbed 0.7 per cent to a record peak of 10,242. But activity was relatively light given the closure of US markets for Martin Luther King Day.

實際上，富時Eurofirst 300指數(FTSE Eurofirst 300)收盤上漲0.2%，至7年來的最高點1409.92點，儘管這遠低於日內高點1418.11點。德國Xetra Dax指數上漲0.7%，達到創紀錄的歷史最高水平10242點。但鑑於美國市場因馬丁•路德•金紀念日(Martin Luther King DAY)休市，交投相對淡靜。

There was a near unanimous view in the markets that the ECB would announce a programme of sovereign quantitative easing on Thursday, aimed at bolstering the eurozone’s economy and reversing a slide into deflation. But plenty of questions remained over the potential size of any programme.

市場幾乎一致認爲，歐洲央行將在本週四宣佈買入主權債券的量化寬鬆項目，目的是提振歐元區經濟和扭轉通縮趨勢。但圍繞該項目的潛在規模，市場仍存在許多疑問。

Steve Barrow, head of G10 strategy at Standard Bank, argued that the only way the ECB would be likely to get inflation back to where it wanted it was by shaping any QE announcement towards a significant currency depreciation.

標準銀行(Standard Bank)的10國集團(G10)外匯策略主管史蒂夫•巴羅(Steve Barrow)辯稱，歐洲央行要讓通脹重回理想水平，唯一途徑是宣佈足以促使歐元大幅貶值的量化寬鬆計劃。

“It could do this by leaving QE open-ended, with the bank buying bonds until it has inflation back close to where it wants it,” he said. “If this plays out on Thursday we will lower our forecasts for the euro — to put parity with the dollar in the frame this year as opposed to our current forecast for next year.

他說：“它可以出臺無止境的量化寬鬆舉措，堅持購買債券，直至通脹重新接近其希望的水平。如果週四出現這種情形，我們將降低對歐元的預測——今年就可能達到與美元等值，而不是我們當前預測的明年。”

“However, if the ECB eschews this route by announcing a fixed amount of QE and ignores the chance to tie QE to achievement of the inflation target, we’d be tempted to leave our forecasts largely unchanged. Indeed, it could even create a ‘buy the fact’ rise in the euro.”

“然而，如果歐洲央行沒有走這條路，而是宣佈了固定數量的量化寬鬆舉措，並忽視將量化寬鬆與實現通脹目標掛鉤的機會，我們將傾向於基本保持預測不變。實際上，這甚至可能導致歐元出現‘在證實的時候買入’式的上漲。”

The single currency started the week on the front foot, bouncing 0.5 per cent from an 11-year low against the dollar to trade at $1.1624. It also rallied 2.8 per cent against the Swiss franc to SFr1.0192 as the dust continued to settle following the Swiss National Bank’s surprise decision to abandon its currency ceiling against the euro last week.

歐元本週開局上漲，歐元兌美元匯率從11年的低點反彈0.5%，至1歐元兌1.1624美元。歐元兌瑞士法郎上漲2.8%，至1歐元兌1.0192瑞士法郎，瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)上週意外決定放棄瑞郎兌歐元匯率上限的衝擊波逐漸平息下來。

Denmark’s central bank followed the SNB’s lead as it pushed its deposit rate further into negative territory to defend the krone’s peg to the euro, analysts said. The shared currency was flat against the krone at DKr7.4319.

分析師們表示，丹麥央行效仿了瑞士央行，將存款利率進一步下調至負利率區間以捍衛丹麥克朗與歐元掛鉤的機制。歐元兌丹麥克朗匯率保持在1歐元兌7.4319丹麥克朗。

“It is worth remembering that the Danish krone was under heavier pressure during the ERM crisis compared to currently, and is still managed as part of ERM2,” said Divyang Shah, global strategist at IFR Markets.

IFR Markets全球策略師迪夫揚•沙赫(Divyang Shah)表示：“值得記住的是，丹麥克朗在歐洲匯率機制(ERM)危機期間承受着比現在更大的壓力，而且目前仍作爲‘歐洲新匯率兌換機制’(ERM II)的一部分進行管理。”

“We do not think the krone will be depegged versus the euro.”

“我們認爲丹麥將不會放棄克朗與歐元掛鉤的機制。”

The positive start to the week for European stocks stood in stark contrast to China, where the Shanghai Composite index tumbled 7.7 per cent, its biggest one-day fall in more than six years.

歐洲股市本週開局上漲與中國股市形成鮮明對比，上證綜指大幅下挫7.7%，爲逾6年來最大單日跌幅。

The slide was triggered by an order from the securities regulator banning three large brokerages from opening new margin trading accounts, which had been a big factor in the Shanghai market’s sharp rally to a 65-month high.

中國證監會下令禁止三家大型券商新開融資融券客戶信用賬戶3個月，這引發了股市的下跌；融資交易是上海股市大幅攀升至65個月高點的一個重要因素。

Mark Williams at Capital Economics said that while the potential for further falls in Chinese equity prices was high, the direct impact of any sustained decline would be small.

凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的馬克•威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示，儘管中國股市進一步下跌的可能性很大，但持續下跌的直接影響很小。

But he added there would be implications for Chinese monetary policy. “Abrupt equity market moves complicate the job of monetary policy makers,” he said. “November’s benchmark interest rate cut added fuel to the equity rally. Fear of further stoking the mania has probably made policy makers more reluctant to follow up.

但他補充稱，這將對中國貨幣政策產生影響。“股市的驟然走勢將令貨幣政策制定者的工作複雜化，”他表示，“去年11月的降息助燃了股市的漲勢。此前對於繼續激發股市熱情的擔憂，可能讓政策制定者不願出臺跟進措施。”

“Accordingly, a sustained equity market slump, or even stabilisation in prices, would make further rate cuts and reductions in the required reserve ratio much more likely.”

“相應地，股市持續下跌，甚至股價企穩，將加大進一步降息和下調存款準備金率的可能性。”

Meanwhile, oil prices resumed their downward trend, with Brent crude falling $1.11, or 2.2 per cent, to $49.06 a barrel — but well clear of last week’s five-year low of $45.19. Copper fell 0.8 per cent in London to $5,672 a tonne after hitting $5,353 last week, the lowest since July 2009.

與此同時，油價重拾下跌趨勢，布倫特(Brent)原油價格下跌1.11美元，至每桶49.06美元，跌幅爲2.2%，但遠遠脫離上週每桶45.19美元的5年低點。倫敦銅價下跌0.8%，至每噸5672美元，上週曾觸及5353美元，爲自2009年7月以來最低。

Gold gave back some of its recent gains in spite of a broadly weaker tone to the dollar. The metal was down $4 at $1,275 an ounce after reaching a four-month high on Friday.

儘管美元走勢整體變弱，但金價抹去了最近的部分漲幅，下跌4美元，至每盎司1275美元，上週五曾觸及4個月高點。

Greece is likely to come under the spotlight ahead of Sunday’s general election, although many in the markets appeared to believe that the new government — whatever its make-up — would reach a compromise with the country’s creditors, allowing the country to remain in a bailout programme.

希臘可能會在週日大選之前受到關注，不過很多市場參與者似乎認爲，新政府（不管其構成如何）將與國際債權人達成妥協，讓該國得以繼續執行紓困計劃。

“Even under this scenario, however, negotiations may prove tough and take a long time,” said Luigi Speranza, analysts at BNP Paribas. “Moreover, the outcome of these negotiations could set an important precedent for the evolution of the political debate elsewhere.”

“然而，即便在這種情況下，談判也可能被證明是艱難且漫長的，”法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)分析師路易吉•斯佩蘭扎(Luigi Speranza)表示，“另外，這些談判的結果可能會爲其他國家政治辯論的走向確立重要先例。”