股市看點:蘋果的股票如何"保鮮"?

Apple's shares are famously, and somewhat mysteriously, cheap. The company has doubled its earnings per share over the past year but the stock has a below-market valuation. The discount may have to do with consumer technology companies' tendency to enjoy rapid rises and equally fast declines.

蘋果(Apple)的股票（在某種程度上很蹊蹺地）便宜得出名。該公司每股盈利在過去一年翻了一番，但股價估值卻仍低於市場平均水平。該折價可能與消費者科技公司傾向於大起大落的趨勢有關。

But one Apple product line seems eternally young: Macintosh computers. Thirty years on, it is still growing. Annual revenue has reached $23bn. Computer prices always drop but Macs drop the slowest. Unit sales are marching up. Contrast the product that sparked Apple's renaissance: the iPod. Apple has protected its price but volumes are now in steady decline.

但有一個蘋果的產品線似乎永遠年輕：Mac電腦。30年來一直在增長。年營收已達230億美元。電腦價格一直在下降，但Mac電腦下降得最慢。銷量正穩步上升。形成反差的是，曾引發蘋果復興的產品：iPod。蘋果已對其實施價格保護，但銷量持續下降。

One might sum up the debate about Apple's prospects and valuation like this: will the iPhone and the iPad (two-thirds of Apple's sales) drink from the fountain of youth, as the Mac has, or prove mortal, like the iPod? Admittedly, Apple has not lost iPod customers, but upgraded them to pricier iPhones. But it is not written that this upgrade pattern is repeatable.

人們可能會將有關蘋果公司前景和估值的辯論總結爲：蘋果iPhone手機和iPad平板電腦（佔蘋果銷售的三分之二）能否像Mac電腦一樣，飲取青春不老之泉；還是像iPod那樣終會老去？誠然，蘋果公司並未失去iPod用戶，而是讓他們升級爲昂貴的iPhone用戶。但這種升級模式能否複製，卻沒有定數。

What gives the Mac line legs? Computers have a slow replacement cycle, making it easier to justify buying a premium product such as a Mac. More important, users get dug in with operating systems, so it is costly to switch.

是什麼讓Mac產品線長了腿？電腦的更換週期比較緩慢，這更容易讓人有理由購買像Mac這樣的高端產品。更重要的是，用戶一旦熟悉此套操作系統，更換別的就代價高昂了。

The trick is to increase switching costs. It used to be that iTunes kept users where their music was. But now Apple, Google, Amazonand others offer cloud storage services and ways to move files from others' platforms. A strategy of ever-tightening integration between one company's devices may be more promising. If your PC, tablet, phone or whatever is an interoperative bundle, you will tend to replace it with one of the same make (and keep using the services from that manufacturer). Apple is nearly there but it will need to keep pressing: Googlejust rolled out a tablet and home media hub, and made much of how well they work together.

關鍵就是要增加更換成本。以前是由iTunes來保管用戶的音樂文檔，但現在蘋果、谷歌(Google)、亞馬遜(Amazon)和其它公司都提供雲存儲服務，以及從其他平臺轉移文檔的方式。不斷加深同一公司各個設備之間整合度的策略，可能更有前途。如果你的個人電腦、平板電腦、電話和其他什麼設備，都屬於一個可以互操作的整體，你會更傾向於將它們換成同一生產商的設備（並繼續使用這個生產商的服務）。蘋果幾乎已做到了這一點，但仍需繼續推進：谷歌剛剛推出平板電腦和家庭媒體中心，並在兩者配合默契方面大做文章。