巴菲特 我犯了一個1000億美元的大錯誤

Warren Buffett is worth more than $70 billion. But in this year’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett writes that he made a business mistake that may have cost him and his investors much more than that.

沃倫o巴菲特的身家已經超過700億美元。然而，在今年寫給伯克希爾哈撒韋公司股東的信中，巴菲特說他犯過一個商業錯誤，他本人和投資者因此蒙受的損失可能遠遠超過自己擁有的財富。

This year marks the 5oth anniversary of Buffett and his investment partners’ decision to take control of Berkshire Hathaway. In this year’s letter to shareholders, Buffett takes a stroll down memory lane and recalls how he took over Berkshire Hathaway, which at the time was a struggling textile manufacturer based in Bedford, Mass. Along with that story, Buffett shares what he says were two of his biggest business and investment mistakes, one of which he claims cost him and his investors $100 billion.

今年是巴菲特及其投資合夥人決定獲取伯克希爾哈撒韋控制權50週年。在今年的股東信中，巴菲特講述了往事，並且回憶了自己收購這家公司的歷程。當時，這是一家陷入困境的紡織企業，總部設在馬薩諸塞州貝德福德。除了講述這段經歷，巴菲特還透露了自己的兩大商業和投資錯誤，還說其中一個錯誤讓自己和投資者損失了1000億美元。

The first mistake Buffett mentions is, surprisingly, buying Berkshire. Buffett calls the actions that led up to his purchase of Berkshire a “monumentally stupid decision.” He says he knew Berkshire was a troubled company and that he had only bought into it because he thought it was cheap. Buffett expected to make a quick profit and get out. And he almost did.

讓人意外的是，巴菲特提到的第一個錯誤是買下伯克希爾哈撒韋。他說這次收購是個“極爲愚蠢的決定”。巴菲特表示，當時自己知道這家公司陷入了困境，而他進行收購只是因爲覺得後者很便宜。在那個時候，巴菲特的計劃是迅速鎖定收益並退出，而且他差點這樣做。

But when, in May 1964, Berkshire CEO Seabury Stanton offered Buffett slightly less than what he had promised to repurchase his stake in the company, the 34-year old investor bristled, even though the price Stanton offered would have given Buffett a 52% return for his two-year investment. Instead, Buffett launched a takeover campaign. By the following May, Buffett and his partners had taken control of the company.

1964年5月份，時任伯克希爾哈撒韋首席執行官的西伯裏o斯坦頓提出，以稍低於承諾價格的水平回購自己在這家公司的股份。這讓當時34歲的巴菲特很生氣，儘管斯坦頓的報價仍能讓這筆爲期兩年的投資給他帶來52%的回報率。巴菲特反其道而行之，開始着手收購這家公司，並於第二年5月和自己的合夥人控制了伯克希爾哈撒韋。

It was a bad move.

這是一招錯棋。

Berkshire continued to struggle. And Buffett threw good money after bad trying to turnaround the company’s textile mills. He eventually closed Berkshire’s operations two decades later.

伯克希爾哈撒韋繼續苦苦掙扎。爲了讓這家紡織公司扭虧，巴菲特投入了大量資金，但最終在20年後結束了伯克希爾哈撒韋的紡織業務。

But Buffett claims his biggest mistake came two years later. In early 1967, he bought the business that would eventually be the seed of Berkshire’s insurance, investment, and, eventually, conglomerate empire. Buffett bought and merged it into Berkshire, the publicly traded company that he still runs today.

然而，巴菲特說自己最大的錯誤出現在兩年後。1967年初，巴菲特收購了一項業務，後者就是伯克希爾哈撒韋保險和投資業務的雛形，並最終讓這家公司發展成爲一個綜合商業帝國。巴菲特把這項業務併入了伯克希爾哈撒韋，也就是目前依然由他掌管的上市公司。

Buffett says if he had bought the insurance business through his investment partnership hedge fund, which he still ran at the time, he and his investors would have captured all of the investment gains he has created over the past 50 years. Instead, he has shared those gains with the public shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway.

巴菲特說，當時自己仍然經營着投資合夥對衝基金，如果通過這支基金收購此項業務，50年來自己創造的投資收益就會統統進入他和投資者的囊中。現在，他卻要和伯克希爾哈撒韋的流通股股東分享這些收益。

But it’s hard to consider this a mistake that Buffett truly regrets. It’s odd to imagine what Buffett would be like now or, indeed, what the world would be like if the legendary investor had remained a hedge fund manager and not the head of what became the most successful publicly traded investment partnership in history, into which anyone, who had the money, could buy into and become rich. And there likely wouldn’t have been 50 years of investment letters and Buffett wisdom for all to read. This year’s letter, like the others, is great.

但人們很難將其看做是一個錯誤，也很難相信巴菲特真的對此感到後悔。如果這位投資界傳奇當時去做了對衝基金經理，那麼他現在會是什麼樣？這個世界又會是什麼樣？這很難想象。而現在，他是伯克希爾哈撒韋的掌門人，後者已經成爲歷史上最成功的上市合夥投資公司。只要有錢，任何人都能購買這家公司的股份並因此致富。而且，如果巴菲特只是經營對衝基金，就可能不會有這50封年度致股東信，巴菲特的智慧可能也不會呈現在衆人面前。與往常一樣，今年這封信的內容依然十分精彩。

There are plenty of other gems in the special section of this year’s letter titled, “Berkshire – Past, Present and Future,” particularly if you are a Buffett fan. And if not for Buffett’s $100 billion mistake, there would probably be a lot fewer of those.

今年的股東信題爲《伯克希爾——過去、現在和將來》，其特別章節中還有頗多的驚喜，特別是對巴菲特的粉絲而言。如果不是巴菲特犯了這個1000億美元的錯誤，可能人們就難以讀到如此多的精彩信件了。