肯德基在華的黃金歲月已逝

Analysts last week descended on Yum Brands in Shanghai with a volley of tough questions after billionaire investor Dan Loebsuggested the US fast-food chain consider hiving off its Chinese operations.

在億萬富翁投資者丹•洛布(Dan Loeb)建議百勝餐飲集團(Yum Brands)考慮剝離中國業務後，分析師上週在上海向這家美國快餐連鎖集團拋出了一大堆尖銳問題。

The annual Shanghai investor conference, scheduled long before Mr Loeb’s intervention, came as the fate of the woe-laden China operations of the owner of KFC and Pizza Hut is uppermost in investors’ minds.

百勝旗下擁有肯德基(KFC)和必勝客(Pizza Hut)等餐飲品牌。在上海舉行年度投資者會議之際，其麻煩纏身的在華業務成爲投資者最關心的問題。這次投資者會議早在洛布插手經營戰略之前就已排定。

What Mr Loeb dubbed a play on a “unique open-ended middle-class growth story in China” is valued at $20bn-$22bn by analysts. But the view from the streets is rather less gung ho, with restaurants as likely to be stuffed with thrifty grannies as the upwardly mobile middle-class patrons referred to by Mr Loeb.

洛布將剝離百勝中國業務稱作一筆“利用中國中產階級獨特、無限增長題材”的交易，分析師估計其價值可達200億至220億美元。但在一般投資者看來，情況卻沒有那麼樂觀。洛布認爲百勝中國旗下餐廳接待的都是有能力攀爬社會階梯的中產階級顧客，但這些餐廳很可能坐滿了節儉的中國大媽。

For the past quarter of a century, KFC was the gold standard for foreign brands among Chinese. But now its restaurants, especially in big cities, play host to grannies entertaining an only grandchild or elderly matchmakers running impromptu dating agencies alongside the more lucrative customers.

過去四分之一世紀裏，肯德基一直是在華外國品牌的典範。但如今的肯德基餐廳，特別是大城市的肯德基餐廳，除了一部分錢包鼓鼓的顧客，還是老奶奶款待家中獨孫、或上了年紀的媒人臨時給人做媒的地方。

“I am tempted to say KFC’s best days in China are probably behind them. They are dealing with a lot of tough trends,” says James Roy, consumer analyst at China Market Research in Shanghai.

上海中國市場研究集團(China Market Research)消費行業分析師詹姆斯•羅伊(James Roy)表示：“我不得不說，肯德基在中國最好的日子很可能已經過去了。它眼下面對許多不利趨勢。”

These challenges include rising labour costs and rents, labour shortages, changing consumer tastes and increasing competition. This suggests that Yum faces more structural problems than simply a blip caused by the recent food safety scandals .

這些挑戰包括：勞動力成本和租金不斷上漲，人工短缺，消費者口味改變，競爭日益加劇。這說明，百勝所面臨的更多是結構性問題，而不止是近期食品安全醜聞帶來的暫時麻煩。

“Yum China has recovered from previous downturns in its business. However, each time the recovery has taken longer and requires more marketing expenditure,” says Li Junheng of JL Warren Capital. “Yum’s challenges in China are mostly structural, rather than one-off. These structural issues are unlikely to disappear with financial engineering that focuses on expanding the stock multiple and ignores fundamentals.”

“百勝中國從之前的多次業務低谷中走了出來。然而，復甦所花的時間和營銷支出一次比一次多，”沃倫資本(JL Warren Capital)的李君蘅說。“百勝在中國面臨的挑戰大多是結構性、而非一次性的。靠一些推高股票估值倍數而忽視基本面的財務手段，不太可能解決這些結構性問題。”

KFC faces growing competition from innovative start-up fast-dining concepts. Mr Roy says “China is evolving away from that type of restaurant. They need to do something to remain relevant — and they aren’t doing it as well as, for example, McDonald’s.”

肯德基日益面對來自創新創業型快餐概念的競爭。羅伊表示，“這類餐廳在中國越來越不流行了。他們必須採取措施避免被邊緣化，而在這方面他們沒有別的企業——比如麥當勞(McDonald's)——做得好。”

Yum recently reported a 12 per cent annual same-store sales decline in the first quarter and weaker margins. But Greg Creed, its chief executive, predicted a better second half to the year.

百勝最近的財報稱，中國市場第一季度同店銷售額同比下降12%，利潤也同比下滑。但該公司首席執行官格雷格•克里德(Greg Creed)預計今年下半年業績會有所好轉。

KFC’s decline comes at a time when foreign retail brands are struggling in China not just in the fast-food sector, but in many areas including supermarkets, electronics and home improvement retailing. Big international brands such as US retailers Best Buy and Home Depot have been forced to abandon China in recent years.

在肯德基走下坡路之際，不少外國零售品牌都在華遭遇了困難，不止是快餐業，超市、電子產品和家裝零售等許多行業也是如此。近年來，美國零售商百思買(Best Buy)和家得寶(Home Depot)等大型國際品牌都被迫退出了中國市場。

But Sara Senatore, restaurant analyst at Bernstein, who attended the conference, sees a brighter future for Yum in China. “They appear to be recovering from the supply chain scandals.

但參加了百勝上海年度投資者會議的伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)餐廳分析師薩拉•塞納託雷(Sara Senatore)，卻對百勝在華前景持較爲樂觀的看法。“他們看上去正在從供應鏈醜聞中走出來。”

“While they acknowledge the market has become more competitive  . . . because of the advantages they have always had here, scale, brand recognition and supply chain, there is every reason to believe they can retain their market share leadership,” she says.

她說：“儘管他們承認市場競爭已變得更加激烈……但由於他們在這裏一直擁有一些優勢，比如規模、品牌認知度和供應鏈，因此有充分理由相信他們能夠保住在市場份額方面的領先地位。”

Torsten Stocker, greater China retail partner at A.T. Kearney, the professional services firm, says it is too soon to predict the demise of one of the mainland’s most famous brands. “It is natural that a ‘market creator’ like Yum will have to work extra-hard to stay ahead of the competitors that it often spawns itself,” he adds

諮詢公司科爾尼(A.T. Kearney)大中華區零售業合夥人托爾斯滕•施托克爾(Torsten Stocker)表示，現在就預言一個在中國內地極爲知名的品牌將走上末路還爲時太早。他接着說：“像百勝這樣的‘市場創造者’自然必須付出額外的努力，才能一直領先於往往由它自己孕育出的競爭對手。”