蓋茨提醒短期內小心獨角獸企業
Investors need to become more discriminating when investing in start-up technology start-ups, following recent “over-enthusiasm” in Silicon Valley, according to Bill Gates.
微軟(Microsoft)創始人比爾•蓋茨(Bill Gates)表示，近來硅谷“過度熱衷”於投資科技初創企業，投資者們在投資這類企業時應提高識別力。
The Microsoft co-founder said he would bet on valuations of so-called “unicorns” — the 150 or so private companies that have been valued at more than $1bn — falling over the next two years, but that venture capital remains an attractive long-term asset class in an era of ultra-low interest rates.
蓋茨表示他打賭所謂的“獨角獸”企業——約150家估值超過10億美元的私人公司——未來兩年其估值將出現下降，不過在一個超低利率時代，風險投資仍是一個有吸引力的長期資產類別。
The valuations of unicorns have come under pressure after disappointing stock market flotations by some of their number, including payments company Square and Box, a cloud storage company. CB Insights, the research group, has identified seven unicorns that are now worth less than their peak valuation. That, plus wider concerns about the global economy, has led to a sense of a Silicon Valley boom cooling.
隨着部分獨角獸企業上市後表現令人失望，包括支付公司Square和雲存儲公司Box，此類企業的估值已面臨壓力。研究公司CB Insights已確定有7家獨角獸企業目前價值低於其最高估值。這個因素再加上對全球經濟的擔憂，已使人們對硅谷投資熱的期待降低。
“If you gave me a basket of unicorns, I wouldn’t know right now whether to go long or short,” Mr Gates said. “I might go short in the two-year timeframe, but not in the longer timeframe because all it takes is for one or two of those to join the pantheon and your short would make you go bankrupt.”
蓋茨表示：“如果你給我一籃子獨角獸企業，我不知道現在該選擇買進還是賣出。如果以兩年爲期，我可能會選擇賣出，但長期來說則不會，因爲裏面只要有一兩家企業日後飛黃騰達，賣空就會讓你破產。”
He added: “Something that has a chance of 10 per cent-plus returns, even if it comes with a lot of variance, is very attractive in a period where the German long bond has a 1.2 per cent return.”
他還表示：“在這個德國長期債券回報率也僅爲1.2%的時期，如果某資產的回報率有機會達到10%以上，即使伴隨有大量變動，這一資產還是非常有吸引力的。”
Energy start-ups, Mr Gates said, had not enjoyed the same frothiness in valuations as IT companies, largely because of the much larger sums needed before a company can prove that the technology works.
蓋茨表示，能源初創企業的估值並未出現IT企業估值一樣的泡沫化，這多半是因爲，能源企業需要更多資金才能證明其技術可行。
