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應對全球化挑戰沒有統一模式

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應對全球化挑戰沒有統一模式

As befits a gathering deservedly known for having a high ratio of words to actions, the G20 wrapped up its meeting last weekend with a strong but ill-defined call to make globalisation and capitalism work for the good of all.

週一閉幕的20國集團(G20)峯會發出了強烈但含混的呼籲:全球化和資本主義應造福所有人。這很襯一場有着言多於行之名的盛會。

Malcolm Turnbull, the Australian prime minister, spoke of the need to civilise capitalism; Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, said that growth had been too low for too long for too few.

澳大利亞總理馬爾科姆•特恩布爾(Malcolm Turnbull)談到了使資本主義文明化的必要性;國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示,全球經濟太長時間以來增長太慢,而且惠及的人太少。

They were reflecting a concern that the insecurities wrought by globalisation, particularly trade and migration, were fuelling populist sentiment and with it a flight towards protectionism and xenophobia.

他們所表達的是這樣一種擔憂,全球化——尤其是貿易和移民——造成的不安全感正在加劇民粹主義情緒,隨之興起了一股轉向保護主義和排外主義的潮流。

But few universally applicable solutions were offered.

但他們沒能提出普遍適用的解決方案。

In a way, that is not surprising.

從某種程度上講,這並不奇怪。

Not only are such concerns largely limited to a set of rich countries, but the answers that they demand will vary from nation to nation.

不僅此類擔憂大都侷限於一些發達國家,而且各國所需的解決方案也各不相同。

The globalisation of trade, technology and to some extent migration are widespread challenges, but there are no universal international solutions.

貿易、技術以及(某種程度上)移民的全球化是普遍存在的挑戰,但對此沒有國際通用的解決方案。

The response to globalisation must begin at home.

應對全球化挑戰必須從各國國內做起。

To much of the world, the obsession with rising inequality and populism must look like western solipsism.

在許多國家看來,死揪住不平等加劇和民粹主義興起的問題肯定很像一種西方唯我主義。

Thanks to the rise of emerging markets, modern globalisation has produced the first worldwide fall in inequality since the west’s industrial revolution.

得益於新興市場的崛起,現代全球化帶來了西方工業革命以來首次全球範圍內不平等程度的下降。

There is little sign of a general shift towards populism across emerging markets, albeit many of them are starting off at a pretty high level.

幾乎沒有跡象表明新興市場正在普遍轉向民粹主義,儘管其中許多國家成立之初民粹主義高漲。

Even within the rich countries, the links between trade, technology and migration on the one side, and inequality and populism on the other, are by no means clear.

即便在發達國家,貿易、技術、移民與不平等、民粹主義這兩組元素之間也不存在明確的關聯。

In the UK, for example, migration and the hollowing-out of traditional manufacturing have widely been cited as reasons for the Leave vote in the Brexit referendum.

例如,在英國,移民與傳統制造業空心化被廣泛認爲是人們在公投中選擇退出歐盟的原因。

Yet income inequality in the UK has been pretty much flat since the early 1990s.

然而,英國的收入不平等程度自上世紀90年代初以來變化不大。

Still, the rise in inequality in many countries, in wealth as well as income, is incontrovertible.

然而,不能否認許多國家的不平等程度(包括財富和收入)正在加劇。

The problem is that it usually has a lot more to do with technology than trade, and not much at all with immigration.

問題在於,這通常更多是由技術而非貿易造成,與移民也關係不大。

Yet while politicians can address the latter two, they cannot do much about the first, unless they actually manage to ban automation or digitisation in their economies.

然而,雖然政客們可以解決後兩個問題,但他們對技術卻無能爲力,除非他們能設法禁止本國經濟中的自動化和數字化。

Moreover, the tools that bear directly on trade and movement of people, such as protectionism and strict limits on immigration, tend to do more harm than good.

此外,直接針對貿易和人口流動的措施——比如保護主義和嚴格限制移民措施——通常弊大於利。

Protecting one sector exposed to international competition tends to reduce efficiency and redistribute the pain elsewhere.

保護一個面臨國際競爭的行業,往往會降低效率,並將危害轉嫁到其他地方。

Each country’s solution must be tailored to its own conditions and what is politically possible.

每個國家的解決方案必須根據本國國情及政治可行性來具體制定。

But there are some useful principles to bear in mind.

但應牢記一些有益的原則。

Government policies towards the labour market are best directed at equipping workers for new occupations and cushioning the income impact of structural changes rather than trying to preserve all current jobs through stultifying regulation.

勞動力市場政策最好應着眼於培訓工人適應新崗位,緩解經濟結構調整對收入的影響,而不是試圖通過廢除規章來維護當前所有工作崗位。

Rather than blocking immigration, help should be directed at local areas absorbing large numbers of new migrants, to ease the social impact.

不應阻止移民,而應把重點放在幫助本地區吸收大量新移民,以減緩對社會的衝擊。

Complementing money and legislation must come a new honesty among politicians about the nature of the problem and what can be done.

除了資金和立法,政客們必須拿出新的誠意,坦率說明問題的性質以及能夠採取的措施。

Promising massive import tariffs or a wall with Mexico is easy.

誓言徵收高額進口關稅或者在美國與墨西哥之間修建隔離牆很容易。

Explaining that technology cannot be uninvented and that adjustment can be eased but not wished away is much harder.

但要說明已發明的技術抹殺不掉、經濟結構調整能夠加以舒緩但不會隨主觀願望消失就不那麼好解釋了。

The G20 did not and will not produce a universal model for inclusive capitalism.

G20過去沒有、將來也無法拿出一種包容性資本主義的通用模式。

But raising the issue at an international level may encourage individual governments to think harder about what they can achieve at home.

但在國際層面提出這一問題,或許能鼓勵各國政府進一步思考本國能實現的目標。