“瘦身”世行對美國不利

Barack Obama missed the chance to renew the World Bank’s global legitimacy, by failing to give up the American monopoly on its leadership. Donald Trump risks further weakening America’s influence on the global financial architecture by cutting the bank’s funding, as his so-called skinny budget proposes.

巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)錯失了重新確立世界銀行(World Bank)全球合法性的機會，因爲他未能放棄美國對世行領導層的壟斷。唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)有可能進一步削弱美國對全球金融架構的影響力，因爲按照他的所謂“瘦身預算案”(skinny budget)，他將削減世行的資金。

Reinforcing the world economy’s recovery is the top priority of central bank governors and finance ministers, who are gathering in Washington for the spring meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. But Mr Trump’s hostility to both Bretton Woods institutions, embodied by plans to cut the World Bank’s funding by $650m over three years, has shaken confidence.

加強世界經濟復甦是各國央行行長和財長的首要任務，他們正匯聚華盛頓參加世行和國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的春季會議。但是，特朗普對這兩家佈雷頓森林(Bretton Woods)機構的敵意——正如他在三年期間削減6.5億美元世行資金的計劃所體現的——動搖了各方的信心。

Although tensions between Washington and the IMF are acute, the World Bank has the most to worry about. Ordinarily, Jim Yong Kim, its US-nominated president who last year was elected to a second term unopposed, would have used this week’s meetings to lay the groundwork for the first replenishment of bank capital since 2010. Given the signals from Washington, bank staff fear its most powerful shareholder will be in opposition, complicating the task of rallying support for the capital increase from others. For now, it is on hold.

儘管華盛頓與IMF之間的緊張很嚴重，但世行有最多的事情需要擔心。通常情況下，美國提名、去年在無人反對的情況下獲得連任的世行行長金墉(Jim Yong Kim)，會利用本週的會議爲2010年以來首次補充世行資本進行準備工作。鑑於華盛頓發出的信號，世行員工擔心其最強大的股東將採取反對立場，使動員其他國家支持增資的任務變得複雜化。就現在而言，這件事被擱置了。

The timing is unfortunate for the bank. Unless it increases its wherewithal it will have to halt its recent surge in low-cost lending just as emerging market borrowing costs look set to rise. This would mark a further retreat from its central development role.

對世行來說，時機有點不幸。除非世行增加自己的財力，否則就在新興市場借款成本看起來將會上升之際，它將不得不叫停近期激增的低成本放貸。這將標誌着從它在發展事務上的中心角色進一步後退。

It would also mark a further dilution of American soft power. This was already less effective under Mr Obama, whose imposition of Mr Kim over more qualified developing-world candidates weakened the bank’s credibility among poorer nations and drew US leadership into question. This provided more justification for China to usurp the bank’s role by launching competing institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

這也將標誌着美國的軟實力遭到進一步稀釋。這種軟實力的有效性在奧巴馬時期已經有所降低：奧巴馬欽點金墉出任世行行長，而排除更加合格的發展中世界候選人，這種做法削弱了世行在較貧窮國家中的可信度，並使美國的領導地位受到質疑。這爲中國提供了更多理由，讓中國通過發起亞洲基礎設施投資銀行(AIIB)等競爭機構，來爭奪世行的角色。

Mr Trump has rowed back from his rhetorical hostility to other linchpins of the global rules-based system, softening, for example, his antipathy to Nato. It is to be hoped that he will do the same with the World Bank. It is an institution that needs reform, but emasculating it would only cede yet more ground to China.

特朗普對基於規則的全球體系的其他重要支柱已經收回了一部分批評語調，比如軟化了他對北約(NATO)的反感。希望他對世行也會這樣。這個機構需要改革，但是削弱它只會讓中國奪走更多地盤。

The days when the US could explicitly dominate the World Bank may be drawing to a close. But the cheapest way of projecting power in any case is through consensus, where others pay in too. Multilateral agencies have the added benefit of disguising where true power lies. China has learnt that fast, and is drawing other nations into its own development financing initiatives. Mr Trump’s hostility to the World Bank threatens to move the US in the opposite direction.

美國可以公然主宰世行的日子也許行將結束。但無論如何，投射力量的最廉價方式是通過共識，讓別人也掏錢做出貢獻。多邊機構還有一個額外好處，那就是掩蓋真正的強權在哪裏。中國已經很快學到了這一點，它正在吸引其他國家加入其發展融資舉措。特朗普對世行的敵意可能把美國推向相反的方向。