印度人口20年超過中國
As the world hits the 7 billion population mark, much attention is focused on India, which will surpass China to become the world’s most populous country in less than two decades.
世界人口已經攀升到70億的階層，許多人把注意焦點集中於印度。印度的人口將於20年內超越中國，成爲全世界人口最多的國家。
The population growth will mean a nation full of working-age youth, which economists say could allow the already booming economy to maintain momentum. But educating this next generation, keeping it healthy and employed also could be a steep challenge.
人口的增長，意味着這個國家將充滿着年輕職工的族羣。經濟學家說，這個現象，將使它蓬勃發展中的經濟，繼續停留在優勢的狀況中。但是，對下一代的教育，以及健康的維護和工作的機會，也將成爲印度一項嚴峻的挑戰。
Thirty-year-old Ravinder Pande works as a chauffeur for a businessman in New Delhi earning $200 a month. He has migrated to the Indian capital from neighboring Uttar Pradesh state, which the United Nations believes will be home to the world’s 7 billionth baby, born on October 31st.
今年30歲的拉文德爾·潘德的工作，是新德里一名商人的司機。他月入200美元。潘德是從臨近新德里的北方邦遷來新德里的。聯合國當局認爲，世界上第70億名新生人口的嬰兒，會是於今年10月31日，誕生在北方邦潘德老家附近的村落裏。
Pande said he made virtually no money working on the small farm he owned and could not find any other work close to his village.
潘德說，他在老家自己的一塊狹小農田裏工作，根本賺不到錢。而且在他老家附近一帶，也找不到其它工作。
Need for skilled manpower
With nearly 200 million people, Uttar Pradesh is one of India’s most crowded and impoverished states, with few industries.
印度北方邦人口將近2億，是印度人口最擁擠，也是最貧困的幾個邦中之一。
Fortunately for Pande, an economy racing ahead at about eight percent is creating new jobs in emerging hubs like Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore.
幾乎沒有什麼工業。潘德算是幸運的。印度8%的經濟增長率，爲德里，孟買和班加羅爾等新興城市創造了新的工作機會。
Chandrajit Banerjee heads the Confederation of Indian Industry.
印度工業聯盟主席班納吉說：
“There will be a demand for skilled manpower in every level, starting from a white collar right down to whatever you need, be it a carpenter to an auto mechanic to a driver… you have a whole range of requirements that are coming up and shall come up over a period of time,” said Banerjee.
“我們將有技術人力方面的需求，上自白領階級，下至你需要的任何技術人工，包括木匠，汽車技術工，到司機。這整個需求的範圍，經過一段時期後，將逐漸呈現出來。”
These jobs are critically needed in a country expected to hit the one-and-half-billion mark around 2025. It will be one of the world’s youngest countries. By the end of the decade the average age of an Indian will be 29. This “youth bulge” will last until 2050.
對於一個人口預計將於2025年增加至15億的國家來說，這些工作都是非常急迫的。到這個10年結束之際，印度將是世界最年輕的國家之一，印度人口的平均年齡將是29歲。這項年輕人興起的現象，將持續到2050年。
Services versus manufacturing
Economists say this is a chance for India to reap what is called a “demographic dividend” - an opportunity to harness the skills and talents of young people in a growing economy at a time when most countries have aging populations.
經濟學家說，這正是當大部分國家面臨人口老化問題之際，印度坐收“人口利益”的時機。印度可以利用這個時機，在經濟成長中培養富有技術與人才的年輕人。
However there are huge concerns. Economists say current rates of growth, although high, may not create enough jobs. The country will add a staggering 10 million people to the workforce every year, in the next two decades.
但是，印度也面臨着一個嚴重的問題。經濟學家說，目前印度的經濟增長率固然很高，卻未必能創造出足夠的工作，以應付未來20年中，每年增長1000萬勞動人口的需要。
Well known Indian author and columnist Gurcharan Das said the farming sector, where two thirds of the country works, is in a state of decline and earnings are meager.
印度著名專欄作家古查蘭·達斯說，佔印度勞動人口三分之二的農業人口，目前正處人數下降，收入微薄的狀態。The services sector, led by information technology, is fueling India’s boom, but not adding jobs on the scale that is needed.
而服務業方面，由於資訊科技的引導，成爲印度經濟興起的助力。但是沒能夠根據發展規模的需要，增加必需的就業人數。
“What is concerning is that our economy is fired by services, not manufacturing. At least it is not the low-tech labor intensive manufacturing, which creates lots and lots of jobs, for example as China is doing or other counties in Eastern and South East Asia have done. Our real challenge is to creating a manufacturing and industrial revolution. We need to create far more jobs and you cannot expect services alone to do that,” said Das.
達斯說：“現在令人擔心的問題是，我們的經濟靠服務業成長，而不是製造業。至少現今的製造業，還不屬於低科技的勞力密集的製造業。而那種製造業創造了很多很多的工作，就像中國和其它東南亞國家一樣。我們真正的挑戰，是開啓製造業和工業革命。我們必需創造更多的工作。你不能指望單靠服務業來創造出這麼多的機會。”
Other key challenges lie ahead. The public education system is not only failing to keep pace with surging demand, but is often of poor quality. This has led to fears that much of this young workforce will not gain the skills needed to power the economy.
印度眼前還有其它挑戰。公共教育系統非但不足以跟上發展的步調，品質也很低落。這個問題使人擔心這些年輕的勞動族羣，將無法獲得推進經濟必需的技術。
For example, chauffeur Pande said he wants his two children to acquire skills that will help them do better jobs than driving. But he has left them behind in the village because he cannot afford housing for his family in the city.
例如，作爲司機的潘德說，他希望他的兩個孩子能學到技術，讓他們找到比司機更好的工作。但是他目前只有把他們留在鄉下，因爲他供不起一家人都住在城裏。
Pande is not optimistic about how they will fare in the village. He said teachers often do not take classes in the village school. He is unsure if they will achieve success in their studies or get opportunity to tap their talents.
潘德對他的家人在鄉間的境遇，不敢抱樂觀的期望。他說：教師通常不願到鄉下的學校裏教書。他不敢指望他的孩子經由那樣的學習，能有收穫。或者能發揮出他們的天賦。
Cultivating vocational skills
The Confederation of Indian Industry, with the government, is expanding programs to give vocational skills to young people. But the Confederation’s head, Banerjee, said the need is huge.
印度工業聯盟正和政府合作發展一項對年輕人提供職業訓練的計劃。但是聯盟負責人班納吉說，這方面的需求太大了。
“If you are unable to train with targets of like 500 million people, which the prime minister talked about, if you are not able to achieve that, all of this would be unemployed youth because they are unemployable in terms of today’s standards. And that can become a disaster and it could even have a huge negative social impact… so we have no choice but to focus on skilling,” said Banerjee.
班納吉說：“如果你無法根據如總理所談到的，以五億人爲目標提供訓練，如果你不能完成那個目標，以今天標準來說，所有這些年輕人都將屬於失業的一羣，因爲他們沒有就業能力。這可能成爲一大災難。甚至對社會造成巨大的負面影響。所以，我們別無選擇，只有集中朝向技能訓練方向進行。”
A 2008 report by the Boston Consulting Group has warned that failure to make India’s young people productive will mean that the country will have an army of young people left behind.
波士頓諮詢公司於2008在一項報告中警告說，如果不能使印度的年輕人具有生產力，將意味着這個國家的青年人力，被拋棄在落後中。
The other big concern is health care. In Pande’s home state, Uttar Pradesh, infant mortality and malnutrition rates are high. It is not the only region that faces this problem. Nearly half of India’s children under five are malnourished. The school dropout rate also is high.
另外一項使人關切的問題是醫療保健。在潘德的故鄉北方邦，嬰兒夭折和營養不良的比率很高。北方邦並不是印度僅有的面臨這個問題的地區。印度幾乎有一半的地區，存在着5歲以下兒童營養不良的狀況。學童輟學率也很高。
Sarah Crowe, spokesperson for the United Nations Children's Fund in New Delhi warns that these twin problems “could keep India back.”
聯合國兒童基金駐新德里的發言人沙拉·克羅警告說，這種雙重的問題，將使印度持續落後。
“That child is unable to really grow to its ability and will remain in a state of stunting, and not be able to learn when it goes to school, and indeed later earn and really pay back into the economy, and help the country and region move forward," said Crowe. "Out of 200 million children who start school, only 10 percent complete grade 12, so that again means that potential is not being fully met.”
克羅說：“這些孩子不能真正的發展潛力，停留在發育不全的狀況下。他們無法在學校中學習，來日以也無法賺錢回饋於經濟發展，也不能協助國家和地區進步。在印度2億學齡兒童中，只有10%完成12年級的學業。這又說明，根本沒有充分提供培養這個國家潛能的需求。”
Policymakers admit the clock is ticking away. Others warn that India needs to step up investments in health care and education to ensure that its demographic dividend does not turn into what some call a demographic liability.
印度政府的決策官員承認，時間正在分秒地流失。還有人警告說，印度必需在醫療保健和教育上投資，以確保人口上的優勢，而不致變成人口上的負擔。
