阿里巴巴發佈樂觀增長預測

China’s Alibaba is forecasting annual revenue growth of 45 to 49 per cent this year, a target that exceeds analysts’ estimates by 10 percentage points and elicited gasps of “wow” and loud clapping from investors at the ecommerce group’s Hangzhou headquarters.

中國的阿里巴巴(Alibaba)預測2018財年將實現45%至49%的全年營收增長，這個目標比分析師們的估計高出10個百分點，讓聚集在這家電商集團杭州總部的投資者發出驚歎聲和響亮的掌聲。

Analysts had been expecting revenues this year to come in at $31.42bn, according to Bloomberg. Alibaba’s forecast implies sales of up to $34.3bn in the year to the end of March.

彭博(Bloomberg)數據顯示，此前分析師們預計2018財年營收將達到314.2億美元。阿里巴巴的預測表明，其在截至明年3月底的一年裏營收將高達343億美元。

The bullish call highlights the rise of Alibaba, founded by former teacher — and now China’s richest man — Jack Ma. The ecommerce group has spawned an entire ecosystem comprising logistics, payment and cloud data centres which has made the company, along with fellow tech titans Baidu and Tencent, a big part of daily life in China.

這一樂觀預測突顯了阿里巴巴的崛起，其創始人馬雲(Jack Ma)曾經是一名教師，現在是中國首富。這家電商集團已經催生了一個完整的生態系統，包括物流、支付和雲數據中心，使該公司和另外兩家科技巨擘——百度(Baidu)和騰訊(Tencent)——成爲中國日常生活的重要組成部分。

The guidance puts Alibaba, which in May recorded its biggest quarterly rise in revenues since its blockbuster initial public offering in 2014, on track for its biggest annual underlying rise so far, said Maggie Wu, chief financial officer, addressing analysts at the company’s investor day.

首席財務官武衛(Maggie Wu)在該公司的投資者日對分析師們表示，這一指引意味着阿里巴巴將實現迄今最大幅度的年度基礎業績增長。今年5月，阿里巴巴報告了自2014年進行鉅額首次公開發行(IPO)以來最大的季度營收增長。

Last year revenues increased by 56 per cent, but that included Lazada, the Southeast Asian ecommerce group that was consolidated into Alibaba’s numbers from April. Stripping that out, said Ms Wu, would have whittled last year’s growth of 56 per cent back to 44-45 per cent.

2017財年營收增長了56%，但那包括東南亞電商集團Lazada，其數字從去年4月份起合併至阿里巴巴的業績數字。武衛表示，剔除這一因素後，2017財年的增幅將從56%降至44%至45%。

“[This] means by having such a big business, a larger business, we continue to accelerate revenue growth,” she said.

她表示：“這意味着擁有如此大的業務，更大的業務，我們在繼續加快營收增長。”

The Securities and Exchange Commission last year launched an investigation into how Alibaba accounts for its Cainiao Network logistics business and into the massive, and previously unaudited, gross merchandise volume (GMV) numbers. That investigation focused on the GMV metric used for all items that are bought and sold on that group’s network.

美國證券交易委員會(SEC)去年對阿里巴巴展開調查，目標是該公司對旗下物流業務菜鳥網絡(Cainiao Network)的會計處理方式，以及此前未經審計的龐大的商品交易總額(GMV)數字。那項調查針對用來覈算在該集團網絡上買賣的所有商品的GMV計算方法。

Alibaba no longer announces these figures on a quarterly basis, and Ms Wu did not discuss gross merchandise volume numbers in her presentation.

阿里巴巴不再每季度公佈這些數字，武衛在她的陳述中也沒有討論GMV。

The company’s shares have been on a roll this year, along with tech stocks across China and the US, and are up 43 per cent so far this year at $125.64. With a market capitalisation of $317.8bn, it is among the top 10 largest companies globally by equity value.

與中國和美國的其他科技股一樣，該公司今年以來股價漲勢迅猛，今年迄今已上漲43%，至125.64美元。市值達到3178億美元，這意味着它是全球股本價值排名前10的公司之一。

Growth this fiscal year will continue to be driven by the core retail business, including in newer areas such as physical supermarkets and international businesses. Last year that business generated adjusted margins of 59 per cent on the basis of earnings before interest, tax and amortisation.

2018財年的增長將繼續受核心零售業務的推動，包括實體超市和國際業務等較新領域。2017財年，這塊業務在稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)基礎上的調整後利潤率達到59%。

“We are willing to invest that money into expansion of the consumer business,” said Ms Wu. “And to make that very clear, we are going to invest that to gain B2C [business-to-consumer] market share.”

“我們願意將這些錢用於擴大消費者業務，”武衛表示。“明確地說，我們將投資以增加B2C（企業對消費者）市場份額。”

While Alibaba has powered ahead on ecommerce, gobbling up Yahoo’s China operations and driving eBay out of China in the process, it is increasingly rubbing against its domestic peers — Baidu and Tencent, which make up the BAT trinity with Alibaba — in other areas.

儘管阿里巴巴在電子商務方面領先，在此過程中把雅虎(Yahoo)的中國業務收入囊中，並把eBay趕出中國，但它在其他一些領域與國內同行百度和騰訊的競爭日趨激烈。三家巨擘被統稱爲BAT。

Tencent’s Weixinpay has been narrowing the gap in payments with Alipay, run by Alibaba affiliate Ant Financial. Alibaba-owned live-streaming site Youku Tudou has also lost some luxury advertisers to other platforms like Weibo, though Weibo is 31 per cent owned by Alibaba.

騰訊的微信支付(Weixinpay)在支付方面不斷縮小與支付寶(Alipay)之間的差距，後者是由阿里巴巴的關聯公司螞蟻金服(Ant Financial)運營的支付服務。阿里巴巴擁有的視頻網站優酷土豆(Youku Tudou)也被微博(Weibo)等其他平臺奪走了一些奢侈品廣告客戶，儘管阿里巴巴持有微博31%股份。