阿里巴巴沒讓股東失望

At a low point last year Alibaba shareholders wondered what they had bought during the frenzy of the Chinese group’s 2014 New York listing. The shares were well beneath the flotation price. Any buyer’s remorse vanished on Thursday.

在去年的低點時，持股阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的股東們曾懷疑過，在這家中國集團2014年紐約上市引發的狂熱中，自己是不是看走了眼。阿里巴巴的股價曾跌至遠低於發行價。但在這週四，所有買家的懊悔都煙消雲散。

The online commerce group forecast revenue growth of as much as 49 per cent this coming year, reminding us of the vibrancy of China’s ecommerce market. Alibaba is flying. So are shares that rose 10 per cent in morning trading. Free cash flow is strong — and growing fast. Alibaba will likely be giving more of it to shareholders.

這家電商集團預計，2018財年的營收增長將高達49%，提醒着大家中國電商市場的活力。阿里巴巴在飛翔，阿里巴巴股價也在飛翔，在早盤交易中大漲10%。自由現金流強健，且增長迅速。阿里巴巴很可能將向股東派發更多股息。

Jack Ma is the boss who overpromises and then overdelivers. At last June’s investor day, the Alibaba founder gave guidance on revenues for the year ahead for the first time. Not only did Alibaba later lift its 48 per cent forecast, it then beat even that figure with full-year results last month. That happy surprise fanned hopes of another sales blowout this year. The latest forecast was already 10 percentage points above what analysts had expected.

馬雲(Jack Ma)是一位喜歡過度承諾、然後又能超預期兌現的老闆。在去年6月的投資者日大會上，這位阿里巴巴創始人首次給出了2017財年的營收指引。阿里巴巴後來不僅提高了48%的增長預測，而且上月發佈的全年業績還超過了這一數字。這一意外之喜激起了外界對2018財年銷售井噴再現的希望。最新的預測已經比分析師預期的高出了10個百分點。

The new guidance shows the expansion of Alibaba, excluding newly consolidated Southeast Asian ecommerce business Lazada, is proceeding at its fastest rate since the initial public offering. Not bad for a business that has already more than doubled revenues over two years to $23bn. That pace leaves its rival ecommerce peers such as Amazon and certainly eBay eating dust. Only Tencent, which also benefits from rampageous Chinese consumption growth, can keep up.

新預測顯示，阿里巴巴的擴張（不包括新併入的東南亞電商企業Lazada）正以自首次公開發行(IPO)以來最快的速度前進。這對一家已經在兩年內將營收增長一倍多（至230億美元）的企業來說，這挺不錯。這一速度讓亞馬遜、eBay等電商競爭對手望塵莫及。只有同樣得益於中國爆發式消費增長的騰訊(Tencent)能夠與之匹敵。

Alibaba may have further surprises in store, hopefully of a kind more positive than a running investigation into accounting practices by US regulators. Though all of its operating profits come from ecommerce via key units Taobao and Tmall, Alibaba notes that its Alicloud business is now near to break-even. This mostly provides storage infrastructure as a service. Though much smaller, this division’s revenues doubled last year. Group free cash flow hit new highs last year of more than $9bn. Even better, estimates rise another 40 per cent over the next two years.

阿里巴巴可能會帶來更多意外消息，希望是“好的意外”，而不是像美國監管機構正在調查其會計手法那樣的消息。儘管所有經營利潤都來自電商平臺（淘寶(Taobao)和天貓(Tmall)是其中關鍵的兩個），但阿里巴巴指出，其阿里雲(Alicloud)業務如今已接近盈虧平衡。阿里雲的主要服務是提供存儲基礎設施。儘管規模小得多，但該部門去年的收入翻了一番。阿里巴巴集團去年的自由現金流創下新高，達到逾90億美元。更好的消息是，估計未來兩年將再增長40%。

Once gasps of surprise have faded away, questions should follow about what to do with this bounty. Last month’s announced $6bn share buyback notwithstanding, expect Alibaba to pay even more cash back to shareholders.

驚喜之餘，人們應該關注這些錢會被拿來做什麼。阿里巴巴上月宣佈了60億美元的股票回購計劃，預計阿里巴巴將向股東派發更多現金。