歐洲領導人峯會受到巨大壓力須解決危機

European leaders are gathering in Brussels for a critical end-of-year summit, another attempt to resolve a sovereign debt and banking crisis threatening the very future of the euro currency union. Pressure is on for them to come out with a definitive deal this time around, after what critics claim are months of half-measures.

This is not the first time a European Union summit has been described as the last chance to save the struggling euro currency union. But the 27 EU leaders gathering Thursday and Friday in Brussels face extraordinary pressure, at home and abroad,to deliver a lasting solution to the two-year-old eurozone crisis.

一次歐盟峯會被形容爲拯救風雨飄搖的歐元聯盟的最後集會，這已經不是第一次了。但是本週四和週五聚首布魯塞爾的27位歐盟國家領導人，不僅在本國，同時也在其它國家面臨着不同尋常的巨大壓力，要求他們達成一項解決歷時兩年的歐元區危機的永久性方案。

The plan on the table is authored by Europe's two biggest economies, France and Germany. They want to overhaul EU treaties to forge a more binding and fiscally responsible eurozone. The two leaders outlined the details of their vision on Wednesday, in a letter to EU President Herman van Rompuy.

現在擺在桌上的計劃是由歐洲最大的兩大經濟體法國和德國起草制定的。他們希望全面修改歐盟各項條約，來建立一個更加緊密和財經方面更爲負責的歐元區。德法兩國領導人星期三在一封致歐盟主席範龍佩的信中透露了他們構想的細節。

At a joint press conference with his German counterpart Angela Merkel earlier this week, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the crisis has given the two countries an extra reason for unity. He said both countries envision the same kind of Europe.

本週早些時候在與德國總理默克爾舉行的一場聯合記者會上，法國總統薩科齊表示，這場危機已經賦予兩國更多理由要團結一致。他說，德法兩國對歐洲的設想一致。

But their plan must still be accepted by the other 25 EU members or at very least, the 17 members of the eurozone. And that, says analyst Philippe Moreau Defarges, of the French Institute of International Relations, is not at all certain.

但是他們的計劃還必須被其它25個歐盟成員國所接受，或者起碼也要得到17個歐元區成員國的認可。法國國際關係研究所的分析師菲利佩·莫羅·德法爾表示，這一切根本不能確定。

"There will be a very strong pressure to accept this deal. Not only from the eurozone members, but also outside the eurozone," he said. "I think the British should back this agreement. But it will be difficult. "

他說：“接受這個協議會有非常大的壓力。這些壓力不僅來自於歐元區成員國，同時也來自於歐元區之外。我想英國應當支持這項協議，但是一切會很困難。”

British Prime Minister David Cameron, whose country is not part of the euro currency union, has already expressed reservations. He told British TV his first priority at the summit will be to defend British interests.

英國不是歐元區國家，英國首相卡梅倫已經對這項協議表達了保留態度。卡梅倫在英國電視臺上表示，他在此次峯會上的首要任務是維護英國的利益。

"Eurozone countries do need to come together, do need to do more things together. If they choose to use the European treaty to do that, Britain will be insisting on some safeguards too. And as long as we get those, then that treaty can go ahead," said Cameron. "If we cannot get those, it will not."

他說：“歐元區國家確實需要在一起，確實需要在一起做更多的事情。如果他們選擇通過簽訂歐洲條約來實現自己的目標，英國將會堅持對此實行一些保障措施。只要我們得到那些保障，那麼歐洲條約就可以推進。如果我們得不到那些保障，條約就不會獲得通過。”

BNP Parisbas bank economist Shahin Vallee, a visiting fellow at Brussels economic think-tank Bruegel, does not think any deal reached will be enough.

法國巴黎銀行的經濟學家沙欣·瓦萊認爲，達成的任何協議都是不夠的。

"I think not, unfortunately. I think this proposal rests on the idea that with stronger fiscal rules and more automaticity of those rules the euro area will be stronger and financial markets will be comforted and have more belief in the long term sustainability of the euro area, and I think this is an illusion," said Vallee.

他說：“不幸的是，我認爲不夠。我認爲，這項協議計劃是基於隨着採取更強的財經制度，這些制度更強的自動性，就會使得歐元區變得更加強大，金融市場將得到安定，並且對歐元區長期的可持續性抱有更大信心的想法。而我認爲這是一種幻想。”French analyst Moreau Defarges also has his doubts about the French-German plan.

法國分析師菲利佩·莫羅·德法爾也對法德兩國的計劃表示懷疑。

"It is a very partial, a very institutional, a very budgetary and fiscal answer to the euro crisis. The euro crisis is a growth crisis, a problem of growth," said Defarges. "Will the European Union find a new path toward growth? That is the key question."

他說：“這是對歐元危機做出的非常片面，非常學究氣，非常強調預算和財經政策的迴應。歐元危機是一場增長的危機，是一個增長的問題。歐盟會找到另外一條實現經濟增長的道路嗎？這是關鍵的問題。”

Even if the other EU countries accept the French-German plan, it will take months, if not years, to fully implement it, because it may require amending EU treaties. Analysts like Vallee say Europe's crisis needs immediate action.

即使其它的歐盟國家接受法德兩國的計劃，那也需要即使不是數年，也要數月的時間來完全實施這項計劃。因爲計劃獲得通過可能需要修正歐盟多項條約。分析人士沙欣·瓦萊表示，歐洲的危機需要採取立竿見影的行動。

"I think the right solution would be to have a more ambitious treaty change, take the necessary time to negotiate the provisions of this new treaty, while at the same time doing something that is immediately operational to respond to the crisis and the urgency of the crisis," noted Vallee.

他說：“我認爲正確的解決方案是對條約進行力度更大的修改，花費必要的時間對這項條約的條文進行磋商談判，同時採取一些應對危機的立竿見影的行動。”

Adding to the pressure, ratings agency Standard & Poor's has threatened to downgrade the credit rating of 15 eurozone members, including heavyweights France and Germany. There are fears the crisis could spread overseas, slowing growth in Africa and Asia and threatening America's fragile recovery.

評級機構標準普爾已經威脅將調降15個歐元區成員國的信用評級，其中包括重量級的法國和德國。這也爲歐元區國家雪上加霜。還有人擔心這場危機會蔓延到海外，降低非洲和亞洲的增長率，並且威脅到美國脆弱的經濟復甦。

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has been meeting with top officials and heads of state in Europe this week, underscoring Washington's concern.

美國財政部長蓋特納本週已經和歐洲國家的高級官員和首腦舉行了會晤，強調華盛頓的擔憂。

"I am here in Europe, of course, to emphasize how important it is to the United States, and to the world economy as a whole, that Germany and France succeed alongside the other nations of Europe in building a stronger Europe," said Geithner.

蓋特納說：“我就在歐洲，當然要強調德國和法國和其它歐洲國家一道構築一個更加強大的歐洲，對美國乃至整個世界的經濟是多麼重要。”

The eurozone crisis has rekindled longstanding debates on whether the European Union should head toward more unity, economically and politically or does the crisis underscore the failure of European integration? Vallee believes resolving these and other EU visions is also critical to resolving the eurozone crisis.

歐元區危機已經重新點燃了長期以來有關歐盟的爭論， 那就是歐盟是否應當在經濟和政治上更加團結，或者這場危機彰顯出歐洲整合失敗。沙欣·瓦萊認爲，解決這些問題以及歐盟國家的其他設想對於解決歐元區危機也是至關重要的。