內外交困 歐洲陷入三大危機

There are three crises afflicting Europe. Two are on the borders of the EU: a warlike Russia and an imploding Middle East. The third emergency is taking place inside the EU itself — where political, economic and diplomatic tensions are mounting.

目前有三場危機困擾着歐洲。其中兩場危機發生在歐盟(EU)邊上：好戰的俄羅斯和內亂的中東。第三個危機情況正在歐盟內部上演——政治、經濟和外交緊張與日俱增。

The past month has seen all three crises facing Europe intensify. The terrorist attacks in Paris heightened fears about the potential spillover of violence and religious tensions from the Middle East. Russian-backed separatists have renewed their offensive in Ukraine. And Syriza’s victory in Greece means that — for the first time since the euro crisis broke out — a radical left party has won an election in an EU country.

在過去一個月裏，歐洲面臨的這三場危機均有所加劇。襲擊巴黎的恐怖分子，加深了人們對中東暴力和宗教緊張產生溢出效應的擔憂。俄羅斯支持的分裂勢力在烏克蘭再度發起進攻。激進左翼聯盟(Syriza)在希臘大選中獲勝意味着，極左政黨在一個歐盟國家贏得選舉——自歐元區危機爆發以來，這還是頭一回。

The problems in Russia, the Middle East and theeurozone have very different roots. But, as they worsen, they are beginning to feed on each other.

俄羅斯、中東以及歐元區危機的根源差異很大。但是，隨着形勢惡化，它們開始相互助燃。

The economic slump in much of the EU has encouraged the rise of populist parties of the right and left. The sense of insecurity on which the populists feed has been further encouraged by the spillover from the conflict in the Middle East — whether in the form of terrorism or mass illegal migration. In countries such as Greece and Italy, the inflow of migrants from (or through) the Middle East has heightened the atmosphere of social crisis, making immigration almost as controversial as austerity.

歐盟大部分國家出現經濟低迷，促進了右翼和左翼民粹主義政黨的崛起。民粹主義者賴以壯大的不安全感，受到中東衝突溢出效應（無論是恐怖主義還是大規模非法移民）的進一步推動。在希臘和意大利等國，來自（或經由）中東地區的移民大量涌入，強化了社會危機氛圍，使得移民問題幾乎與緊縮政策一樣備受爭議。

Meanwhile, Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine presents the EU with its biggest foreign policy challenge since the cold war. Mishandled, it could lead to military conflict. The EU, marshalled by Germany, has managed to unite around a reasonably toughpackage of sanctions. But the rise of the political extremes within Europe threatens EU unity on Russia — making it more likely that the Kremlin will be emboldened and that the crisis will escalate.

與此同時，俄羅斯對烏克蘭的軍事幹預，給歐盟帶來冷戰結束後最嚴峻的外交政策挑戰。若處置不當，可能會導致軍事衝突。在德國的推動下，歐盟迄今成功地團結起來，對俄羅斯實施了一套合理嚴厲的制裁方案。但是，歐洲內部政治極端主義的崛起，對歐盟在俄羅斯問題上的團結構成威脅——使克林姆林宮更有可能壯膽，也使危機更有可能升級。

One emotion that seems to unite the far-left and the far-right in countries such as Greece, Germany and France is a soft spot for Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The far-right likes Mr Putin’s social conservatism, his emphasis on the nation state, his authoritarianism and his hostility to America and the EU. The extreme left seems to have retained its traditional affinity for Moscow.

對弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)領導的俄羅斯抱有好感，似乎是希臘、德國和法國等國極右翼和極左翼的共同情結。極右翼欣賞普京的社會保守主義、他對民族國家的注重、他的威權主義以及他對美國和歐盟的敵意。極左翼似乎保留着對莫斯科的傳統親切感。

It makes perfect sense for Russia to cultivate the political extremes inside the EU. If the unity of the EU breaks down, the sanctions regime that has helped to isolate Russia will also begin to dissolve. Mr Putin has fostered ties with the far-right National Front in France, as well as Syriza in Greece. The first foreign dignitary received by Alexis Tsipras, the new Greek prime minister, was the Russian ambassador. Athens immediately voiced its opposition to further EU sanctions on Russia.

俄羅斯完全有理由煽動歐盟內部的政治極端主義。如果歐盟的團結瓦解，有助於孤立俄羅斯的制裁機制也將開始解體。普京已經與法國的極右翼政黨國民陣線(National Front)和希臘的激進左翼聯盟加強了聯繫。希臘新總理亞歷克西斯•齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)會見的首位外賓便是俄羅斯大使。希臘隨即表明反對歐盟對俄羅斯出臺進一步制裁措施。

For Angela Merkel, the German chancellor and Europe’s dominant political figure, the problems are crowding in. She is under domestic pressure to be tough with Greece — but under international pressure to cut a deal. Greece’s flirtation with Russia has added a geopolitical angle to the euro crisis, making it likely that the Americans will press Germany to keep the Greeks within the EU family. (Historians might recall that the Truman doctrine of containment of the Soviet Union was rolled out in 1947, as Washington moved to keep Greece from falling into Moscow’s orbit.)

對於歐洲領頭的政治人物、德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela Merkel)而言，麻煩正接踵而至。她面臨的國內壓力要求她對希臘採取強硬態度，但國際間的壓力要求她達成某種交易。希臘與俄羅斯之間的曖昧關係，給歐元區危機添加了一個地緣政治維度，可能會促使美國施壓德國，要求讓希臘留在歐盟大家庭內。（歷史學家也許會回想起1947年爲遏制蘇聯而推出的“杜魯門主義”(Truman doctrine)，當時華盛頓努力確保希臘不落入莫斯科方面的軌道。）

The intensification of the fighting in Ukraine presents the German chancellor with another set of stark choices. The clamour to arm the Ukrainians is growing in the US and parts of the EU. But the Russians are issuing dire warnings about the consequences of such a decision that are likely to alarm the pacifistic German public. The rightwing German parties that are calling for toughness towards Greece and softness towards Russia, are also linked to the “anti-Islamisation” demonstrations that have broken out in German cities.

烏克蘭衝突加劇給德國總理帶來又一波嚴峻的選擇。在美國，在歐盟一些地方，向烏克蘭方面提供軍火的呼聲日益高漲。但是俄羅斯對此類決定的後果發出嚴重警告，很可能讓和平主義的德國民衆震驚。呼籲強硬對待希臘、溫和對待俄羅斯的德國右翼政黨，還與德國多座城市爆發的“反伊斯蘭化”遊行有牽連。

Ms Merkel’s government at least has the advantage of reasonably favourable economic conditions at home. Unemployment is low and Germany can borrow at rock-bottom rates. By contrast, there is a strong sense of social and economic crisis in other key EU countries. Unemployment is in double-digits in Spain, Italy and France — and Greek-style revolts against economic austerity and the EU are distinctly possible.

默克爾領導的政府在國內至少具備經濟狀況相當有利的優勢。失業率維持低位，德國能以極低利率借款。相比之下，歐盟其它大國充滿強烈的社會和經濟危機感。西班牙、意大利和法國的失業率盤踞在兩位數高位，完全可能出現針對經濟緊縮政策和歐盟的希臘式反抗。

Worryingly, none of Europe’s three crises look like improving. In the Middle East, Syria and Libya are in a state of near-collapse and the situation is also bleak in Yemen and Iraq. Russia’s behaviour is becoming more, not less, threatening. And although optimists continue to argue that it is inevitable that Greece and the EU will strike a debt deal, the early signs are unpromising — and confrontation is looming.

令人擔憂的是，歐洲的三場危機似乎沒有好轉跡象。在中東，敘利亞和利比亞正處於瀕臨崩潰的狀態，也門和伊拉克的形勢也十分黑暗。俄羅斯的行爲正變得更具威脅性，而沒有放緩的意思。儘管樂觀主義者仍然認爲，希臘和歐盟難免會達成債務協議，但早期跡象不容樂觀——對抗的烏雲正在聚集。

All of this looks like a formula for a further fracturing of the political centre in Europe. Loose parallels are being made with the politics of the 1930s when economic depression, combined with an unstable international political environment, led to the rise of political extremism — and, ultimately, war.

這一切看上去都可能導致歐洲的政治版圖進一步破裂。有人將現在的格局與20世紀30年代進行粗略類比：當時經濟蕭條，加上不穩定的國際政治環境，導致政治極端主義興起，最終引發戰爭。

Fortunately, comparisons with the interwar years still seem far-fetched. Europe back then was a continent still traumatised by the mass killing of the first world war. European states lacked welfare systems — which meant that a prolonged slump quickly translated into mass destitution.

幸運的是，與兩次世界大戰之間那個時期的類比似乎仍然牽強。那時的歐洲尚未從一戰的大規模殺戮恢復元氣，而且歐洲各國缺少福利體系——這意味着持續低迷很快轉化爲大規模貧困。

Modern Europe has an economic and political resilience, as well as a bedrock of wealth, that was simply not there in the 1930s. All the same, the current atmosphere in the continent is as unstable and unpredictable as anything that I can remember in my adult lifetime.

現代歐洲擁有經濟和政治上的韌性，也擁有財富基礎，這些都是20世紀30年代根本不存在的。不過在我的記憶中，目前的歐洲大陸，正處在自我成年以來最不穩定，且最難以預料的氛圍之中。