世行不應向特朗普妥協

It cannot be much fun running the World Bank these days. Apart from the complaints of the institution’s perennially fractious staff, the multilateral lender has seen increased competition from other sources of finance over the past two decades. Now it faces rising criticism from its largest shareholder.

如今執掌世界銀行(World Bank)不可能很好玩。除了該機構一向難管的員工的抱怨外，這家多邊貸款機構在過去20年裏遭到了其他資金來源的更多競爭。現在它還面臨其最大股東越來越多的批評。

Donald Trump’s administration, never likely to be a great fan of a global institution that sends American money abroad, has complained that the bank lends too much to countries such as China, which can borrow elsewhere.

唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)的行政當局永遠不太可能成爲一家將美國資金輸往境外的全球機構的粉絲。特朗普政府抱怨稱，世行目前向中國這樣有能力從其他途徑獲得資金的國家放貸太多。

In the past, the response of the bank’s president, the American Jim Yong Kim, has been to roll with the punches rather than robustly standing up for the institution’s founding principles. This year he tried to win over Mr Trump by helping to create and administer a fund for women’s development set up by Ivanka Trump, the president’s daughter.

過去，世行行長、美國人金墉(Jim Yong Kim)對此類批評的迴應是大事化小，而不是堅定捍衛該機構的成立原則。今年早些時候，他爲了爭取特朗普的支持，還曾幫助創建和管理由總統女兒伊萬卡?特朗普(Ivanka Trump)設立的一隻女性發展基金。

But the charm offensive seems to have had little effect. The US is objecting to the fact the bank continues to lend a large amount of money to middle-income countries, and is threatening to withhold its contribution to a general capital increase unless changes are made.

但這場魅力攻勢似乎沒有產生什麼效果。美國反對該行繼續向中等收入國家提供大量資金的做法，並威脅稱，除非作出改變，否則美國將拒絕向該行的總體增資計劃貢獻資金。

There is a debate to be had about exactly what holes in Beijing’s financing the bank needs to fill. But Mr Trump’s objections are almost certainly motivated, at least in part, by the desire to not give money to what he sees as the US’s economic enemy number one. If the bank folds and gives Mr Trump what he wants, its credibility will be badly damaged.

對於中國在資金方面還有什麼缺口需要世行來填補，需要展開一場辯論。但是，特朗普的反對立場幾乎肯定源自這樣一個動機（至少在一定程度上）：不想向他眼裏的美國頭號經濟敵人提供資金。如果世行屈服，讓特朗普得償所願，該機構的公信力將受到嚴重損害。

In an odd twist, it is China itself that has represented the biggest threat to the World Bank’s dominance of providing subsidised credit to emerging markets. By 2010, the activities of huge institutions such as the China Development Bank and the China Export-Import Bank meant that China’s overseas development lending outstripped the World Bank’s for the first time.

弔詭的是，中國本身對世行向新興市場提供補貼性信貸的主導地位構成最大威脅。早在2010年，中國國家開發銀行(China Development Bank)和中國進出口銀行(China Export-Import Bank)等龐大機構的活動就意味着，中國提供的海外發展貸款首次超過了世行。

More recently, the advent of institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, of which China is the biggest shareholder, has raised the possibility that the centre of development finance has moved from Washington to Beijing. This puts yet more pressure on Mr Kim to secure US financing.

近年，亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（AIIB，亞投行）等機構的問世，帶來了發展融資的中心已從華盛頓轉移到北京的可能性，中國是亞投行的最大股東。這讓金墉有更大的壓力爭取美國資金。

In reality, the shift has been exaggerated. The creation of the AIIB, whose other member governments can block China from making financing decisions, involves placing Chinese money under plurilateral governance, rather than letting it roam the world at Beijing’s whim. The Chinese government has asked the AIIB to help fund the infrastructure projects in its vast Belt and Road initiative. The bank has responded that Belt and Road is a good idea, but that any lending it does will have to be subject to its standards on environmental and human rights safeguards and transparency.

現實地看，這一轉移被誇大了。亞投行的創立意味着把中國的資金放在多邊治理的框架下（其他成員國政府可以阻止中國做出融資決定），而不是讓北京方面隨心所欲地把資金投向世界上任何地方。中國政府請求亞投行幫助資助其龐大的“一帶一路”倡議下的基建項目。亞投行迴應稱，“一帶一路”是一個好主意，但該行作出的任何放貸，都必須遵守其在環境和人權保障以及透明度方面的標準。

In that context, the World Bank would do better to stick to its guns rather than start contorting itself into peculiar postures in order to please Mr Trump. In any case, official development assistance of all kinds has been supplanted by private lending and investment, and by remittances from overseas migrants. Sheer volume of cash no longer equals policy influence: the bank’s role now stands or falls on the quality of the advice it gives.

在這種情況下，世行的上策應是堅持立場，而不是開始爲了讓特朗普滿意而委曲求全。無論如何，各種官方發展援助都已經被私人貸款和投資以及海外移民的匯款所取代。資金數量本身不再等於政策影響力：世行的角色現在有賴於它給出的建議的質量。

It is hard not to feel for Mr Kim. He may not have been the best candidate for the job, but his position has been made very difficult by Mr Trump’s attitude. Yet he should not allow the institution to be pushed around by the whims of one shareholder. The bank should make its decisions on whom to lend to on the criteria it has painstakingly established, not on the basis of political expediency.

人們很容易同情金墉。他也許不是這個職位的最佳人選，但他的地位被特朗普的態度搞得非常艱難。然而，他不應該讓這個機構任由某一個股東心血來潮的念頭擺佈。該行應該根據其精心確立的標準、而不是政治權宜來作出向誰放貸的決定。