2030年中國投資行業將管理17萬億美元資產

Asset management in China is a relatively young industry that is on track for an extended period of strong growth, due to the country’s ageing population and the rising wealth of the expanding middle class.

資產管理在中國是一個相對年輕的行業，但是鑑於中國人口老齡化和不斷壯大的中產階層財富日益增加，該行業正處於長期強勁增長的軌道。

As a result, China’s investment industry will see its assets under management grow to around $17tn by 2030 from around $2.8tn at the end of last year, according to Casey Quick, the consultancy.

諮詢公司Casey Quick預測，其結果是，中國投資行業的管理資產將從去年底的2.8萬億美元左右，增至2030年的17萬億美元左右。

Around half ($8.5tn) of the net new inflows attracted by investment managers globally by 2030 will go to Chinese companies, helping the country to become the world’s second-largest asset management market behind the US.

到2030年，全球投資管理公司吸引的資金淨流入量中，大約一半（8.5萬億美元）將流向中國公司，推動中國成爲世界第二大資產管理市場，僅次於美國。

Casey Quick said that wealthy Chinese business owners along with retail investors would account for half of the expected asset growth by 2030.

Casey Quick稱，富裕的中國企業主和散戶投資者將佔到截至2030年的預期資產增長的一半。

Pension assets are projected to grow by around 10 per cent a year, helped by the expansion of workplace retirement savings schemes.

在工作單位退休儲蓄計劃擴大的推動下，養老金資產預計將每年增長10%左右。

Insurance companies will also outsource more business to third-party asset managers to help boost returns, but new funding for China’s two sovereign wealth funds is expected to be limited, leaving their future growth dependent on asset allocation decisions and market movements.

保險公司也將外包更多業務給第三方資產管理公司，以幫助提高回報，但中國兩隻主權財富基金的新資金預計將會有限，這意味着它們的未來增長將依賴於資產配置決策和市場變動。

Foreign managers, however, will face significant challenges in winning new business in China. Foreign managers are expected to capture just 6 per cent of the Chinese market, given the distinct home-country bias that exists among mainland investors and the strong relationships between local investment managers and product distributors.

然而，試圖在中國贏得新業務的外資管理公司將面臨重大挑戰。考慮到內地投資者存在明顯的本土偏向，以及本地投資管理公司和產品分銷商之間的密切關係，外資管理公司預計只能爭取到中國市場6%的業務。

But further measures to liberate China’s capital markets could benefit foreign managers, who will retain an advantage in international asset markets. Allocations to non-Chinese asset classes are expected to grow to around 17 per cent by 2030 for Chinese institutional investors and to 15 per cent for wealthy individuals.

但是，放開中國資本市場的進一步措施可能惠及在國際資產市場上保持優勢的外資管理公司。預計到2030年，中國機構投資者對中國以外資產類別的配置將增至17%左右，中國富人投資者的這一比例將增至15%。