亞洲力量平衡變化 加劇地區領土爭端

The late-summer flare-up in territorial tensions between Japan and three neighbors has been stoked by a shift in the balance of power in Northeast Asia, as well as leadership changes or contests in all four countries that complicate the impact of domestic politics on foreign policies.

日本與三個鄰國間的領土爭端在今年夏末升溫，並因東北亞地區力量平衡的變化以及四國領導層換屆和權力爭奪而愈演愈烈。這四個國家的領導層換屆和權力爭奪加大了國內政治形勢對外交政策的影響。

The passions recently inflamed in Japan, China, South Korea, and Russia over the disputed areas are striking in part because of the seeming insignificance of the stakes: largely uninhabited islands with few natural resources, decent fishing rights and mostly modest strategic value.

日本、中國、韓國和俄羅斯國內最近因領土爭端而高漲的情緒令人震驚，部分原因在於所爭之物似乎無關緊要：除了捕魚權，這些爭議島嶼基本上無人居住，幾乎沒有自然資源，而且戰略價值也不是很大。

But the spats aren't just about the islands. They are rooted in long, complex histories between Japan and its neighbors, particularly an ill-fated imperialistic expansion in the first half of the previous century, and Tokyo's inability to resolve fully lingering tensions in the following decades of peace. Now the still-simmering disagreements appear to have become opportunities for those nations to test the resolve of a Japan seen weakening economically and politically.

但是，這些國家的爭議不只關乎島嶼。爭議源自於日本與其鄰國漫長而複雜的歷史，尤其是日本上世紀上半葉十惡不赦的軍國主義擴張行爲，在接下來幾十年的和平時期裏，日本政府未能徹底消除日本與這些國家之間遺留的緊張關係。如今，這些仍在發酵的爭議似乎爲這些國家提供了試探日本決心的機會。在外界看來，如今的日本無論是經濟上還是政治上都在每況愈下。

'The shift in power balance resulting from China's rise is pushing Japan into a defensive position,' said Makoto Iokibe, former president of the National Defense Academy of Japan. 'Countries that engage in power politics are taking advantage of the situation, confident that they can push further and still get away with it.'

日本防衛大學校(National Defense Academy of Japan)前任校長五百旗頭真(Makoto Iokibe)說，中國崛起導致的力量平衡的轉變正將日本推向防禦姿態。捲入強權政治的國家正在利用這一形勢，他們自信可以在推波助瀾之後全身而退。

In just in a matter of days this month, Tokyo found itself grappling with new tensions on three fronts. The Aug. 15 landing of Chinese activists on one of the contested islands-called Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in Chinese-was countered by a similar landing by a group of Japanese nationalists a few days later. Tokyo and Seoul have been caught in an escalating tit-for-tat since early August when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak visited Korea-controlled islets known as Dokdo in the Koreas and Takeshima in Japan; they are also known as the Liancourt Rocks. Russia, meanwhile, threatened to send naval ships to Moscow-controlled islands north of Japan that Tokyo has long claimed. That came a few weeks after Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev visited the territory called the Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan.

本月，在短短几天時間，東京發現自己同時陷入了與三個國家的爭議之中。8月15日，中國活動人士登上日中爭議島嶼。這些島嶼在日本被稱作尖閣列島(Senkaku)，在中國被稱作釣魚島。幾天後，一組日本民族主義者以同樣的方式登島。自8月初韓國總統李明博(Lee Myung-bak)登上了由韓國控制的日韓爭議島嶼之後，日本和韓國的口水戰日益升級。這些島嶼在韓國被稱作獨島(Dokdo)，在日本被稱作竹島(Takeshima)，在其他一些國家也被稱作利揚庫爾巖(Liancourt Rocks)。同時，俄羅斯威脅稱，將派海軍軍艦到日本以北由俄方控制的日俄爭議島嶼。日本長期以來一直聲稱對該島擁有主權。幾周之前,俄羅斯總理梅德韋傑夫(Dmitry Medvedev)登上了這些島嶼。這些島嶼在俄羅斯被稱作南千島羣島(Kurils)，在日本被稱作北方四島(Northern Territories)。

On Thursday, the spat between Japan and South Korea turned nastier. In a highly contentious diplomatic gesture, Seoul tried to send back a letter of protest that Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda had written to Mr. Lee. The attempt failed as security guards at Tokyo's Foreign Ministry refused to let cars carrying South Korean diplomats enter its grounds. The South Korean government later returned the letter by registered mail. At a parliament session, Mr. Noda said Japan has demanded Mr. Lee apologize for remarks deemed offensive to the Japanese emperor.

週四，日本和韓國的爭執變得越發嚴重。韓國方面試圖退回日本首相野田佳彥(Yoshihiko Noda)寫給李明博的一封抗議信，這種做法在外交上非常具有爭議。由於日本外務省的安保人員拒絕讓韓國外交官的車輛進入，韓國此舉未能成功。韓國政府後來以掛號信的方式退回了這封信。野田佳彥在一次國會會議上說，日本已經要求李明博爲被指冒犯了日本天皇的言論道歉。

Government officials and analysts say Japan and South Korea will be careful not to let the political tensions damage their significant bilateral economic ties. Still, worrying signs are emerging. Anti-Japan protesters in South Korea have called for a boycott of Japanese products. Japan has cancelled a bilateral meeting of finance ministers this month and threatened to shelve the expansion of a foreign-exchange swap deal agreed to last year as a contingency measure to cope with a potential financial crisis. Some in Japan are concerned that Seoul may try to shut Japan out of trade talks with China that had been intended to lead to a three-way pact.

政府官員和分析人士說，日韓雙方都會小心行事，爭取不讓政治上的緊張局勢破壞重要的雙邊經濟關係。但令人擔憂的跡象還是出現了。韓國的反日示威者呼籲國人抵制日本商品，日本則取消了原定於本月舉行的一場日韓雙邊財長會議，並威脅說可能不再延長日韓兩國去年達成的一項貨幣互換協議。這項協議原本是作爲一種應急措施，以應對可能發生的金融危機。日本也有人擔心首爾方面可能試圖阻止日本參加中日韓之間旨在達成一項三方協議的貿易會談。

The concern not to let the spat escalate is felt on both sides. 'We have never tried to link issues of history with other important issues for the future of our countries,' one of Mr. Lee's aides said.

日韓雙方都已經感到不能讓口角進一步升級。李明博的一位幕僚說，我們從來沒有試圖把歷史問題與事關兩國未來的其它重要問題聯繫在一起。

Some experts also see the tiffs being stoked by new questions about the strength of the half-century-old U.S.-Japan military alliance. While the two governments are taking many steps to deepen defense ties, rising grass-roots opposition in Japan to Marine bases and the deployment of U.S. military aircraft has complicated cooperation efforts.

一些專家同時認爲，外界對持續了半個世紀之久的美日軍事同盟的實力產生新的質疑也令日本和鄰國之間發生的口角進一步升級。雖然美日兩國政府都採取了許多措施來深化兩國間的防務聯繫，但日本民間日益反對美國在日本設立海軍基地部署美軍戰機也令兩國間的合作努力進一步複雜化。

'The U.S.-Japan alliance remains strong, but it has weakened a bit─in the parlance of S&P, it has been downgraded and is not triple-A anymore,' said Ryozo Kato, a retired diplomat who served for seven years as Japan's ambassador to the U.S. 'Once we show signs of weakness in the alliance, that would tempt China, Russia, and Korea.'

曾擔任七年日本駐美大使的退休外交官加藤良三(Ryozo Kato)說，美日同盟仍然強大，但實力略有削弱；套用標準普爾的評級標準，可以說美日同盟的“實力評級”遭降級，已經不再是AAA了，一旦美日同盟表現出被削弱的跡象，中國、俄羅斯和韓國可能會有所動作。

The growing animosities in the region also create new challenges for the U.S., as it shifts its focus to Asia to counter China's dramatic rise. In particular, the increasingly raucous row between Tokyo and Seoul could undermine Washington's efforts to enlist the unified help of its two closest allies in deterring aggressive action by Beijing.

隨着美國將重心轉移至亞洲以應對中國的迅速崛起，這一地區國家間日益增長的敵意也給美國帶來了新的挑戰。美國原本打算在日韓這兩個最親密盟友的幫助下牽制北京的激進舉動，但日韓間日益嚴重的分歧可能令美國的如意算盤落空。

In their report on the U.S.-Japan alliance published this month, Richard Armitage, a former U.S. deputy secretary of state, and Joseph Nye, a former assistant secretary of defense, urged Tokyo and Seoul to 'resist the temptation to resurrect deep historical differences and to utilize nationalist sentiments for domestic political purposes.' The called strong U.S.-Japan-South Korea relations 'absolutely critical to the alliance and the regional stability and prosperity.'

美國前副國務卿阿米蒂奇(Richard Armitage)和前國防部助理部長約瑟夫•奈(Joseph Nye)在本月發表的一份討論美日同盟的報告中呼籲日本和韓國抵制誘惑，不要重新攪動兩國間在歷史方面由來已久的巨大差異，不要利用民族主義情緒爲各自的國內政治服務。報告認爲，美日韓之間牢固的關係對於三國同盟以及該地區的穩定和繁榮至關重要。

Fueling the contentions is rising nationalism sweeping the region at a time when countries jockey for leadership positions in the new regional order, while fighting the pressure of global economic competition that has left many citizens falling behind. The resulting anxiety carries particular political weight this year across the region. China faces a leadership transition. Russia had a presidential election this year, and South Korea has one at year's end. In Japan, Mr. Noda faces mounting pressure to call a snap election in coming months-a contest he is seen as likely to lose unless he can quickly seize on a winning political issue.

眼下，爲了在新區域秩序中爭取領導地位，有關國家可謂不遺餘力，而席捲該地區的民族主義浪潮則令相關國家間的分歧進一步加深。同時，這些國家還在對抗全球經濟競爭的壓力，這場競爭已經令該地區不少國家落後。從整個地區來看，因此產生的焦慮在政治上有着很重要的意義。中國正面臨着高層領導換屆，俄羅斯今年已經舉行過總統選舉，韓國在今年年末將舉行總統大選。在日本，首相野田佳彥面臨着越來越大的壓力，要求他在未來數月提前舉行選舉的聲音越來越多。除非他能迅速抓住一個能給他帶來勝利的政治問題，否則外界認爲他可能在競爭中落敗。

Japan's standoff with China centers around a chain of East China Sea Islands. Japan gained control of them at the end of its 1894-95 war with China, but China and Taiwan also claim sovereignty, citing historic association with the islands. The dispute has intensified in recent years with China's rapid naval expansion.

日本與中國的對峙主要圍繞東中國海(East China Sea, 中國稱東海)上的一系列小島展開。日本在1894年至1895年的戰爭結束後獲得了對這些小島的控制權。但中國大陸和臺灣地區也以與這些小島的歷史聯繫爲由，宣稱對這些小擁有主權。隨着中國的海軍實力迅速提升，中日兩國間的爭端近年來愈演愈烈。

Chinese civilian leaders are wary of appearing weak on territorial issues with Tokyo that have an intense resonance with the public, especially as the sensitive once-a-decade leadership change is expected to begin in Beijing in coming months. While Japan and China are increasingly entwined economically and Japanese pop culture is popular among Chinese youths, long-standing mistrust remains, rooted in Japan's brutal occupation of large parts of China during World War II.

中國文職領導人小心翼翼地避免在引發公衆強烈反響的中日領土問題上表現得軟弱，特別是在預計未來幾個月內北京將開始10年一次的領導人換屆這一敏感時刻。儘管中日在經濟上日益密不可分，且日本流行文化在中國年輕人中間也頗受歡迎，但雙方間久已存在的不信任依然難以消除，這種不信任源於二戰期間日軍對中國大片國土的殘酷佔領。

In response to Japan's expulsion this month of the Chinese activists who landed on the Senkaku, violent anti-Japanese protests erupted in a number of Chinese cities over the weekend. Photos posted online showed protesters smashing Japanese-brand cars. Analysts and diplomats said the anti-Japanese protests-China's worst since October 2010-underscored how intense public nationalism threaten leaders' control if they are perceived by the public as weak. In one of the most striking images, a mob of young men in Shenzhen overturned a Japanese-brand police car as officers stood helplessly by.

日本本月驅逐了登上釣魚島的中國活動人士，中國對此的反應是，多個城市上週末爆發了激烈的反日抗議活動。此次反日抗議活動是2010年10月以來最嚴重的一次。網上發佈的照片顯示，抗議者砸了日本品牌的汽車。分析人士和外交人士說，反日抗議活動凸顯出，如果領導人在民衆眼裏顯得軟弱，民衆強烈的民族主義情緒將威脅到領導人對局面的掌控。一張非常令人震驚的圖片顯示，深圳的一羣年輕人掀翻了一輛日本品牌的警車，警察則無能爲力地站在一旁。

Japan's dispute with South Korea centers around the Liancourt Rocks, a set of islets halfway between the two countries, named after a French whaling ship that plied those waters in the 1840s. The islets have appeared on maps in both countries going back to the 1600s. Japan claimed control of them in 1905, shortly before its 1910 colonization of the Korean peninsula.

日韓爭端的焦點是利揚庫爾巖(Liancourt Rocks)。這組日本稱“竹島”、韓國稱“獨島”的島嶼位於日韓兩國之間，利揚庫爾巖這個名字來源於19世紀40年代在此作業的一艘法國捕鯨船。早在17世紀初，獨島就已經出現在日韓兩國的地圖上。1905年，日本聲稱對獨島擁有主權。之後不久，日本在1910年開始了對朝鮮半島的殖民統治。

Since taking office in 2008, Mr. Lee has endured criticism that he treats South Korea's historical disputes with Japan too lightly. His Aug. 10 visit to the islets came after a public outcry in June over historical issues between the two countries forced his office to scrap a deal with Japan that provided a working framework for sharing military secrets.

自2008年就任韓國總統以來，李明博一直飽受批評，外界批評他不夠重視日韓歷史爭端問題。今年6月，韓國公衆對日韓歷史問題的不滿迫使政府取消了與日本的一項協議，之後不久李明博於8月10日視察了獨島。取消的協議原本將爲日韓分享軍事祕密提供工作框架。

Some analysts in the two countries believe that Mr. Lee's decision to visit the islets was aimed at countering low approval ratings, shifting attention from scandals-and showing that he still holds agenda-setting power even though he has just six months left in office before the December presidential election. In a recent speech, Mr. Lee vowed to keep working 'until the last day of my term in office.'

日韓兩國的一些分析人士認爲，李明博視察獨島的決定旨在提高其低迷的支持率，轉移公衆對各種醜聞的注意，同時希望表明，儘管他的總統任期只剩下12月份舉行總統選舉之前的這六個月時間，但政府的工作安排依然由他說了算。李明博近日在一次講話中承諾，他將堅持不懈地工作，直至任期的最後一天。

Japan claims the four Kuril Islands controlled by Russia and located off Hokkaido based on the 1855 Treaty of Shimoda, the first Russo-Japanese agreement addressing the area. Moscow argues that the islands became part of the Soviet Union following Japan's World War II defeat.

日本聲稱，根據日俄1855年簽署的《下田條約》(Treaty of Shimoda，即《日俄和親通好條約》)，北方四島是日本領土。《下田條約》是日俄之間有關北方四島的首份協議。北方四島位於北海道附近，目前在俄羅斯的控制中。莫斯科方面稱，二戰日本戰敗後，這些島嶼就成了蘇聯的一部分。

Some trace Russia's recent visible reminders of its control over the islands to the country's changing image of itself, and efforts by President Vladimir Putin to reassert Moscow's global influence.

一些人認爲，俄羅斯最近明確提出對北方四島的領土主張，其根源在於該國正努力改變自己在外界眼中的形像，以及俄羅斯總統普京(Vladimir Putin)重申莫斯科全球影響力的舉措。

Moscow has been especially worried about its image in Asia, where China's burgeoning economy and growing cities along the Russian-Chinese border have eclipsed Russia's own deteriorating economy and dwindling population. Mr. Medvedev's first visit to the Kurils in 2010 was choreographed to show that 'the country's leadership takes care of even its remotest regions,' wrote Fyodor Lyukanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine.

莫斯科一直特別擔心在亞洲的形像。相比中國蓬勃發展的經濟以及中俄邊境附近日益擴大的中國城市，俄羅斯國內不斷惡化的經濟和日益減少的人口顯得相形見絀。《全球事務中的俄羅斯》雜誌(Russia in Global Affairs)的主編柳卡諾夫(Fyodor Lyukanov)寫道，2010年，梅德韋傑夫首次視察北方四島，意在顯示俄羅斯領導層就連最偏遠的地區也照顧到了。