中國房價延續下跌趨勢 體現羣體效應
The decline in China’s housing sector continued in September, with prices for new homes falling in all but one of 70 major cities surveyed.
今年9月份，中國房地產行業的下滑勢頭仍在延續。在統計覆蓋的70個城市中，有69個城市的新建商品住宅價格出現下降。The National Bureau of Statistics said that prices for new homes fell by up to 1.9% in the cities surveyed, with drops of 0.7% in Beijing and 0.9% in Shanghai. Prices for existing homes fell in all 70 cities, with drops of between 0.5% and 2.0%.
據中國國家統計局（National Bureau of Statistics）稱，受訪城市中，新建商品住宅價格最大環比降幅爲1.9%，其中北京和上海環比跌幅分別爲0.7%和0.9%。與上月相比，70個受訪城市的二手住宅價格環比全部下降，最小降幅爲0.5%，最大降幅爲2.0%。
The figures suggest that recent measures by the People’s Bank of China to support the market haven’t succeeded in turning it round, at least yet. The central bank recently cut downpayment requirements for those buying a second property to 30% from over 60%, the same level as first-time buyers enjoy.
這些數字表明，最近中國央行推出的救市措施至少到目前還未能成功地扭轉房地產市場的頹勢。近期，中國人民銀行（People’s Bank of China）將居民第二套住房首付比例要求從60%以上，下調至30%，執行與首套房房貸一樣的首付比例要求。
The numbers add to unease about the unwinding of a speculative bubble in the country’s real estate sector, which analysts fear may lead to a big rise in bad loans among its banks.
最新房價數據加劇了圍繞中國房地產市場去投機泡沫化進程的不安情緒。分析師們擔心，泡沫破裂可能導致銀行不良貸款大幅上升。China Construction Bank Corp CICHY 0.17% said Thursday bad loans rose to 1.13% of its total portfolio in the third quarter, from 1.04% at the end of the second quarter. While that’s still well below the level that analysts would consider stressed, the increase of 0.09% was faster than the 0.02% reported in the previous three months. Overall bad loans in the sector were at their highest in three years in June, according to the PBoC at 1.08%.
中國建設銀行股份有限公司（China Construction Bank Corp）上週四稱，截至第三季度末，該行不良貸款率升至1.13%，高於第二季度末的1.04%。雖然這仍遠低於分析師們眼中的警戒線水平，但0.09%的增幅比前三個月0.02%的增幅要迅猛。根據中國人民銀行公佈的數據，6月份銀行業總體不良貸款率達到1.08%，爲三年來最高水平。Analysts worry, however, that official data may not capture the full picture, as much of the credit to the real estate sector goes through the informal, or shadow, banking sector.
但分析師們擔心，官方數據可能沒有反映房地產信貸的全貌，因爲許多信貸來自非正規渠道或所謂的“影子銀行”。New loans through such shadow banks have fallen sharply in recent months, as most regions struggle with excess supply after years of over-building.
影子銀行提供的新增貸款在近幾個月大幅下滑，因爲大部分地區經過多年的過度建設後均面臨住房供給過剩的困局。A survey by China’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in June said that more that 20% of homes in urban areas were actually vacant, while as of August, around $674 billion was owed on empty properties.
中國西南財經大學（Southwestern University of Finance and Economics）6月份的一項調查報告顯示，2013年中國城鎮地區整體住房空置率超過20%，而截至今年8月份，空置住房佔據了4.2萬億元（約6740億美元）的住房貸款餘額。In the last six weeks, the PBoC has injected an extra $100 billion in liquidity to the country’s largest banks in the form of three-month loans to ensure that a slowdown in the real estate sector doesn’t make credit markets seize up.
在過去六週，中國央行已經通過向大型銀行提供3個月期貸款的形式向銀行業新注入了1000億美元流動性，以確保地產業的放緩不會導致信貸市場凍結。The real estate slowdown has contributed to the economy’s overall growth rate falling to its slowest in five years. The government said earlier this week that gross domestic product grew only 7.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, short of the government’s 7.5% target.
受房地產市場減速拖累，中國經濟整體增速已經降至五年來最低水平。上週早些時候公佈的最新官方數據顯示，今年第三季度，中國國內生產總值（GDP）僅同比增長7.3%，低於政府7.5%的全年增速目標。
