迪拜房價爲什麼連續七個季度下跌

Property in Dubai has fallen in price for seven consecutive quarters. Prime prices in July were 10 per cent below levels from two years ago. In the second quarter of this year, home sales slumped almost a third on the previous year. The Gulf city-state’s recent travails would have most high-end estate agents crying into their champagne cocktails.

迪拜的房產價格已經連續七個季度下跌了。今年7月份的高端住宅價格與兩年前相比下降了10%。今年第二季度的住宅銷量則較上年同期猛跌了約三分之一。這座海灣城邦型國家近期經歷的陣痛應該會讓絕大多數高端地產經紀人哭暈在他們的香檳雞尾酒裏。

David Godchaux, who runs local agent Core, source of the sales figures, is having none of it. “Over the past 18 months, the market has lost between 6 per cent and 15 per cent, depending where you look,” he says. “But this is Dubai’s first really healthy correction.”

但大衛.戈德肖(David Godchaux)並不感到悲觀。他經營着迪拜本地經紀公司Core，該公司主要提供房產銷售數據。“在過去的十八個月中，迪拜房地產市場的跌幅在6%至15%之間，這取決於你所關注的方面。但這是迪拜房市首次真正意義上的健康調整。”

His point is that Dubai has seen much worse. In the wake of the financial crisis, following a furious speculative boom, property prices slumped, losing 40 per cent in the first three months of 2009 alone, according to the agency Knight Frank. By November that year, helped by huge losses at Nakheel, its property division, the government-owned investment vehicle Dubai World announced it would delay repayment on $59bn of debts, raising the spectre of the largest sovereign default since that of Argentina in 2001.

在他看來，迪拜經歷過遠比這更糟的情況。在金融危機爆發初期，迪拜房產價格大幅下挫，來自房地產經紀公司萊坊(Knight Frank)的數據顯示，僅2009年頭三個月內的跌幅就達到了40%，而在此之前迪拜剛經歷了一輪洶涌的地產投機熱潮。到了2009年11月，迪拜國有投資公司迪拜世界(Dubai World)宣佈將延期償還590億美元的債務，受旗下房地產分支Nakheel的大規模損失影響，這是自2001年阿根廷事件以來規模最大的主權債違約。

Indebted property owners, who had bought multiple properties with wafer-thin deposits, fled the country, fearing jail for missed mortgage repayments. Newspaper articles carried pictures of abandoned supercars at Dubai airport.

負債累累的房產所有者——他們靠着像威化餅乾一樣薄弱的儲蓄基礎購買了多套房產——紛紛逃離迪拜，因爲擔心無法按期償還抵押貸款會導致他們被投入監獄。新聞報道中常有超級跑車被遺棄在迪拜機場的圖片。

By contrast, the recent price falls feel benign. To Godchaux, they demonstrate an economy that is more diversified, a mortgage industry that has learnt its lesson — a 25 per cent minimum deposit, increasing for second and more expensive homes, has been introduced — and a banking industry that is better regulated. “Buyers haven’t all left at the same time. Fewer of them are speculators, and those that are have deeper pockets,” he says.

與之形成對比的是，近期房價下跌給人的感覺較爲良性。在戈德肖看來，這些現象表明，迪拜作爲一個經濟體已變得更加多元化，抵押貸款行業也已吸取了經驗教訓——引入了25%的首付比例要求，該比例在個人購買下一套或者更加昂貴的住宅時還會進一步上浮——對銀行業的監管也有所加強。“買家們並未全部同時離場。買家中的投機者變少了，而且如今的投機者也擁有更強的資金實力。”他表示。

Dubai may have weathered this price fall better than the last, and it may be one of the world’s top five cities for individuals with a net worth of more than $30m, according to Knight Frank’s 2016 survey of the super-rich. Yet the lesson of the parlous performance of Dubai property since 2014 is that this is very much an emerging market, at the whim of outside influences that drive global capital flows.

迪拜或許能比上一次更好地應對此輪房價下跌，據萊坊2016年的超級富豪調查顯示，迪拜或許是淨資產超過3000萬美元的個人在全球範圍內最青睞的五座城市之一。迪拜房地產市場自2014年以來的危險走勢所帶來的啓示是，這在很大程度上仍是一個新興市場，受制於驅使全球資本流動的外部影響。

“The real estate sector, in particular, depends on a number of global and regional fundamentals,” says Maria Morris, who runs Knight Frank’s Dubai prime business.

負責管理萊坊在迪拜高端住宅業務的瑪利亞.莫里斯(Maria Morris)表示：“房地產行業尤其取決於全球和地區範圍內的一系列基本面因素。”

A sudden sell-off by Russian investors, following sanctions imposed early in 2014 by the EU and the US, was one factor behind the price falls this time, say agents. The recent strengthening of the dollar, to which the UAE dirham is pegged, was another. To foreign buyers, property looked pricey. To foreign owners, it looked like time to cut losses.

地產經紀們表示，在2014年初歐盟和美國對俄羅斯實施制裁之後，俄羅斯投資者突如其來的拋售潮是導致此次房價下跌的因素之一。近期美元匯率走強則是另一個原因——阿聯酋貨幣迪拉姆實行相對於美元的盯住匯率制度。對於外國買家來說，迪拜房產的價格看起來很貴，而對外國的住宅所有者而言，這似乎是止損的好時機。

Dubai’s sensitivity to countries beyond its shores extends to the workers its economy relies on. Fewer than 12 per cent of those who live in the UAE are citizens, according to the UN. The majority of non-citizens work in low-paid jobs, and are a group the government is increasingly keen to cater for in order to combat the risk of their sudden departure. Half of UAE expats polled by YouGov last year said they would consider leaving because of the high cost of living. Efforts to provide affordable housing — which include a proposal for new residential projects to contain a mandatory quota of low-cost homes — may struggle, say agents.

迪拜對其他國家的敏感性還進一步表現在它的經濟對外來勞工的依賴上。來自聯合國(UN)的數據顯示，在阿聯酋的常住人口中，只有不到12%的人爲本國公民，而非公民中的絕大部分人都在從事低薪工作。阿聯酋政府正在越來越重視迎合這一羣體的需要，以防範他們突然離去的風險。去年YouGov調查了阿聯酋外籍人士，半數受訪者表示他們會考慮離開，因爲阿聯酋的生活成本高昂。地產經紀人表示，政府正努力提供經濟適用住房，比如，政府推出了一個要求新建住宅項目必須包含某一強制比率的低成本住宅的提案，但這個提案或許會遇到很大阻力。

With a 25 per cent deposit required and buying costs of 6.5 per cent, according to Savills, buyers must raise almost a third of the value of a new home. Even the cheapest of these under the proposed quota system will cost about Dh500,000 ($136,000), says Godchaux. “Most will struggle to save what they need for these homes, even if they save for 10 years,” he says. In addition, most local mortgage lenders require incomes of at least Dh15,000 to Dh20,000 a month before granting mortgages, he adds. Lower-paid workers might get Dh10,000 per month, perhaps less.

第一太平戴維斯(Savills)表示，因有25%的首付要求，以及6.5%的購房費用，買家們在購房時必須預先籌得約佔新房價三分之一的資金。戈德肖表示，按照目前提出的比例要求，即便購買最便宜的房產也要花費約50萬迪拉姆（合13.6萬美元）。“絕大多數人爲了支付購買這些住宅所需的金額將會拼命存錢，即便他們需要存上十年。”除此之外，絕大多數迪拜本地的抵押貸款商要求貸款人的月收入至少達到1.5萬至2萬迪拉姆纔會批准貸款，戈德肖補充說。而低收入工人的月收入或許只有1萬迪拉姆，甚至可能更少。

For affluent buyers from abroad, who dominate Dubai’s prime market, there is no problem of affordability. Average prime prices are 60 per cent lower than average prime New York homes; 75 per cent cheaper per sq ft than prime London; and 85 per cent less than top-end prices in Hong Kong, according to Core.

對於來自國外的富有買家來說——這一羣體主宰了迪拜的高端住房市場——償付能力不成問題。來自經紀公司Core的數據顯示，迪拜高端住宅的平均價格比紐約高端住宅的平均價格低了60%；與倫敦高端住宅每平方英尺的價格相比便宜了75%；與香港頂級住宅的價格相比則便宜了85%。

Savills is selling a five-bedroom house with a pool in Arabian Ranches, south of Downtown, for Dh6.2m ($1.68m), roughly what you would pay for a two-bedroom flat in a good spot in New York, London or Hong Kong. For buyers who want something a little plusher, the same agent has a large house with lake views and parking for six cars in Emirates Hills, for just under Dh22m ($6m).

第一太平戴維斯正在出售一棟帶有游泳池的五臥室住宅，該住宅位於迪拜市中心以南的阿拉伯牧場(Arabian Ranches)，售價620萬迪拉姆（合168萬美元），這差不多是在紐約、倫敦或香港的優質地段購買一套兩臥室公寓的價錢。對於品味更加奢華的買家來說，第一太平戴維斯還有一套位於酋長山莊(Emirates Hills)住宅區的豪宅可供選購，該豪宅可觀湖景，擁有六個停車位，售價不到2200萬迪拉姆（合600萬美元）。

Recent price drops have meant bargains for even the best stock. At Palm Jumeirah — the distinctive, palm-shaped artificial archipelago completed in 2009 — prices of apartments dropped 7 per cent year on year in June. Downtown, prices have fallen off 12 per cent, according to Core. In the downtown Burj Khalifa building, the tallest in the world, Knight Frank has a four-bedroom apartment for sale for Dh70m ($19m).

近期的房價跌勢意味着即便是最優質的存量住宅現在也在降價出售。在朱美拉棕櫚島(Palm Jumeirah)——這座獨一無二、棕櫚葉形狀的人工羣島於2009年完工——今年6月的公寓價格較上年同期下跌了7%。而來自Core的數據顯示，迪拜市中心的房價已經下跌了12%。在市中心的哈利法塔(BurjKhalifa)——這是目前全球第一高建築——萊坊正在以7000萬迪拉姆（合1900萬美元）的價格出售一套四臥室公寓。

However, strong underlying rental demand has kept prices from dropping further in the flagship developments, say agents, and the growing rental yields occasioned by falling capital values could yet provide the silver lining to Dubai’s current property cloud. Research by Savills puts the average 2016 yields for Dubai homes a shade under 4.5 per cent. At the best units this can reach 6 per cent, with occupancy levels close to 90 per cent, says Core.

但地產經紀們表示，強勁的潛在租房需求使得旗艦房地產開發項目的房價免於進一步下跌，而由固定資本價值下降引起的租賃收益率上升或許會給目前烏雲籠罩的迪拜地產市場帶來一線曙光。據第一太平戴維斯的研究估算，2016年迪拜住宅的平均租金收益率或略低於4.5%。Core則表示，對於最好的房源來說，租金收益率可以達到6%，而且入住率接近於90%。

Buying guide

購房指南

● All buyers pay a 4 per cent transfer fee; those from abroad are restricted to freehold purchases

● 所有買家須支付4%的轉讓費；來自海外的買家僅限於購買可終身保有的不動產

● An average prime home costs $2.1m

● 高端住宅的平均價格爲210萬美元

● The city-state of Dubai is the most populous of the seven emirates that comprise the United Arab Emirates

● 迪拜作爲一個城邦型國家，是組成阿聯酋的七個酋長國中人口最多的那一個

What you can buy for . . .

你能買到什麼樣的房子. . .

$1m A three-bedroom apartment in City Walk, a new-build development in the Jumeirah area with pool, gym and porter

● 花100萬美元可以在City Walk買一套帶三個臥室的公寓，這是朱美拉(Jumeirah)地區新建的一個帶游泳池、健身房以及門童服務的房地產開發項目。

$2m A four-bedroom house with a pool close to the beach on Palm Jumeirah

● 花200萬美元可以在靠近朱美拉棕櫚島沙灘的地方買一棟帶有四個臥室的住宅

$3.5m A seven-bedroom house in Emirates Hills, with staff quarters

● 花350萬美元可以在酋長山莊住宅區買一棟帶傭人房的七臥室住宅。