油價下跌推動歐元區首季增長0.4%
A spending spree triggered by the plunge in energy prices helped boost eurozone growth to 0.4 per cent in the first quarter, as the region made further strides towards a meaningful recovery after years of near stagnation.
能源價格暴跌引發的消費熱潮幫助歐元區第一季度增長率升至0.4%。經歷了多年近乎停滯後，該地區朝着有意義的復甦取得進一步進展。
The strong start to 2015 means the eurozone grew at a faster pace than the US and UK economies, reversing the trend seen in recent years when the region was one of the world’s economic laggards.
2015年的強勁開端意味着，歐元區的增長比美國和英國更快，扭轉了近年來歐元區落後於世界其他經濟體的趨勢。The flash estimate for gross domestic product, produced by Eurostat, was broadly in line with economists’ expectations and beat the 0.3 per cent expansion recorded for the final quarter of last year. The US and UK economies expanded by 0.2 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively over the same period.
歐盟統計局(Eurostat)對國內生產總值(GDP)的初步估測與經濟學家的預期基本一致，並超出了去年末季0.3%的增長率。一季度美國和英國的增長率分別爲0.2%和0.3%。
A sturdier performance from France and Italy lifted the single currency area and fuelled hope that confidence was increasing in weaker parts of the region, though Greece returned to recession.
法國和意大利更爲穩健的經濟表現提振了歐元區，並且助燃了歐元區經濟較弱地區信心正在增強的希望，儘管希臘再度陷入衰退。France’s economy smashed expectations, expanding at the fastest pace in nearly two years as falling prices helped consumer spending lift growth by 0.6 per cent, a sharp rise from the stagnation in the fourth quarter. Italy’s 0.3 per cent expansion also beat forecasts and was the fastest in four years, bidding farewell to nearly three years of stagnation and recession.
法國的經濟表現遠遠超出預期，油價下跌提振了消費者支出，使增長率從去年第四季度的近乎停滯大幅提升至0.6%，實現近兩年來的最快增速。意大利0.3%的增長率也超出了預期，而且是近4年來最快增速，告別了持續近3年的停滯和衰退。But the mood was more sombre in Germany, where growth dipped to
但德國的氣氛更爲陰暗，其一季度增長率從上一個季度的0.7%下跌至0.3%，遜於共識估計。0.3 per cent from 0.7 per cent, missing consensus estimates.
德國放緩使圍繞歐元區最大經濟體的樂觀情緒受到質疑。這種樂觀情緒導致柏林方面將2015年的增長預測上調至1.8%，而私營部門經濟學家預測增長率達到2%甚至更高。The German slowdown raised doubts about the optimism over Europe’s largest economy, which has led Berlin to raise its 2015 forecast to 1.8 per cent and seen private economists target growth of 2 per cent and higher.
“遜於預期的增長支持我們的警告，即許多經濟學家已變得過於樂觀，”德國商業銀行(Commerzbank)首席經濟學家約爾格•克拉默(Jörg Krämer)說，“目前來看超過2%的預測值過高。就連本行1.8%的保守預測也面臨下行風險。”“The weaker than expected rise supports our warnings that many economists have become over-optimistic,” said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank. “Forecasts in excess of 2 per cent now look too high. We even see downward risks to our conservative 1.8 per cent estimate.”
同時，歐元區增長對低油價的依賴也引發了更大範圍的憂慮。美國和中國的增長放緩跡象已拖累出口，抵消歐元走弱帶來的積極效應。
