日本社會老年犯數量加速上升

Japan’s prison system is being driven to budgetary crisis by demographics, a welfare shortfall and a new, pernicious breed of villain: the recidivist retiree. And the silver-haired crooks, say academics, are desperate to be behind bars.

日本的監獄系統正因人口結構、福利缺口以及新的惡棍人羣——退休慣犯——而陷入預算危機。而學者稱，這些滿頭銀髮的壞蛋迫切希望坐牢。

Crime figures show that about 35 per cent of shoplifting offences are committed by people over 60. Within that age bracket, 40 per cent of repeat offenders have committed the same crime more than six times.

犯罪數據顯示，約35%的入店行竊罪行由60歲以上的人犯下。在這個年齡組內，40%的慣犯犯相同罪行的次數超過6次。

There is good reason, concludes a new report, to suspect that the shoplifting crime wave in particular represents an attempt by those convicted to end up in prison — an institution that offers free food, accommodation and healthcare.

一項新報告得出結論稱，有充分理由懷疑，入店行竊犯罪案件高發，尤其代表了罪犯有意進入提供免費食物、住宿以及醫療服務的監獄。

The mathematics of recidivism are gloomily compelling for the would-be convict. Even with a frugal diet and dirt-cheap accommodation, a single Japanese retiree with minimal savings has living costs more than 25 per cent higher than the meagre basic state pension of Y780,000 ($6,900) a year, according a study on the economics of elderly crime by Michael Newman of Tokyo-based research house Custom Products Research.

慣犯的盤算對於潛在罪犯來說令人沮喪地充滿吸引力。由總部位於東京的研究機構Custom Products Research的邁克爾•紐曼(Michael Newman)對老年犯罪的經濟分析所作的研究稱，即使飲食節儉、住宿非常便宜，日本單身退休人員如果存款較少，其生活成本也比微薄的基本國家養老金（每年78萬日元，合6900美元）高25%。

Even the theft of a Y200 sandwich can earn a two-year prison sentence, say academics, at an Y8.4m cost to the state.

學者們表示，即使是偷竊一份200日元的三明治，就可以換取兩年的有期徒刑，給國家帶來840萬日元的成本。

The geriatric crime wave is accelerating, and analysts note that the Japanese prison system — newly expanded and at about 70 per cent occupancy — is being prepared for decades of increases. Between 1991 and 2013, the latest year for which the Ministry of Justice publishes figures, the number of elderly inmates in jail for repeating the same offence six times has climbed 460 per cent.

老年犯罪案件高發趨勢正在加速，同時分析人士指出，最近擴大了規模、入住率約爲70%的日本監獄系統，正準備好迎接未來數十年罪犯人數增加。1991年至2013年（日本法務省已發表數據的最近一個年份）期間，重複犯相同罪行超過6次的正在服刑的老年罪犯人數攀升了460%。

The surging rates of crime among the elderly disguise a darker trend than mere contempt for the law, say economists and criminologists. Retiree crime is rising more quickly than the general demographic ascent into old age that will put 40 per cent of the Japanese population over 65 by the year 2060.

經濟學家和犯罪學家稱，老年人犯罪率上升掩飾了一個比單純蔑視法律更加陰暗的趨勢。退休人員犯罪的上升速度超過人口老齡化趨勢——到2060年40%的日本人年齡將在65歲以上。

Akio Doteuchi, a senior researcher on social development at the NLI Research Institute in Tokyo, expects the ratio of repeat offenders to continue rising.

東京日生基礎研究所(NLI Research Institute)的社會發展高級研究員土堤內昭雄(Akio Doteuchi)預計，慣犯比例將繼續上升。

“The social situation in Japan has forced the elderly into the need to commit crime,” he says. “The ratio of people who receive public assistance is highest since the end of the war. About 40 per cent of the elderly live alone. It’s a vicious circle. They leave prison, they don’t have money or family so they turn immediately to crime.”

“日本的社會形勢迫使老年人不得不走向犯罪，”他稱，“如今接受社會救助的人口比例達到戰後以來最高水平。約有40%的老年人獨自生活。這是一個惡性循環。出獄後，他們既沒有錢也沒有家人，因此他們會立即再次犯罪。”

The crime figures, he adds, expose the strained calculus of the government’s welfare spending as the world’s second-biggest economy ages. Prison, no matter how the spreadsheets are run, is a woefully inefficient way for the government to target welfare spending at those who most need it.

他補充稱，犯罪數據顯示出，隨着全球第三大經濟體人口老齡化加劇，日本政府在福利支出方面捉襟見肘。無論電子數據表如何運作，監獄都是政府把福利支出對準最需要幫助的羣體的效率極其低下的方式。

Attempts to find ways to release elderly prisoners early have encountered insurmountable legal problems, Mr Doteuchi says, and the prison system as a whole will eventually be overrun by elderly inmates.

土堤內昭雄稱，設法提早釋放老年犯的企圖遇到了難以逾越的法律問題，監獄系統作爲一個整體最終將被老年囚犯佔領。