歐佩克 石油需求15年內見頂

Opec has joined a chorus of energy industry voices saying oil demand might peak within 15 years, as quicker adoption of alternative fuel cars and more aggressive climate targets look set to bring more than a century of rising consumption to a halt.

石油輸出國組織（Opec，簡稱歐佩克）附和了能源行業很多人的預言，稱石油需求可能在15年內達到頂峯。替代燃料汽車的加速普及以及更激進的氣候目標，看來將終結持續了一個多世紀的石油消費增長。

The forecast is the first official recognition from the producers’ cartel that oil demand — the source of the majority of its 14-members’ revenues — may soon top out, despite predictions the global vehicle fleet could almost double in 20 years as emerging economies develop.

該預測是這個產油國卡特爾首次正式承認石油需求——其14個成員國大部分財政收入來源——可能很快見頂，儘管有預測稱，隨着新興經濟體的發展，20年後全球汽車總量可能增加近一倍。

Opec is not the first to argue oil demand might soon peak, but the forecast carries weight coming from a group that collectively pumps more than a third of world oil supplies.

歐佩克並不是首個認爲石油需求可能很快見頂的組織，但作爲一個佔世界石油供應三分之一以上的集團，其預測是有分量的。

Royal Dutch Shell said last week that oil consumption might stop growing within five to 15 years, highlighting the threat to an industry that has enjoyed almost uninterrupted demand growth since the first commercial well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859.

荷蘭皇家殼牌(Royal Dutch Shell)上週表示，石油消費量可能在5至15年內停止增長，突顯了該行業面臨的威脅；自1859年第一口商業油井在賓夕法尼亞州開鑽以來，該行業一直獲益於幾乎從不間斷的需求增長。

Predictions of a peak are predicated on the Paris climate agreement’s targets being fully implemented as well as faster adoption of alternative fuel cars.

預測石油需求見頂的假設是，巴黎氣候協議目標全面實施以及替代燃料汽車加快普及。

Opec’s prediction is only one of a range of scenarios published in its annual long-term outlook, which forecasts how the market might look over the next 25 years. Its core scenario sees oil demand continuing to expand to 2040 and beyond if countries are less aggressive in trying to curb emissions.

歐佩克的預測只是其年度長期展望中設想的一系列情形之一，該展望預測了未來25年市場可能呈現的格局。其核心情形是，如果各國不那麼積極地嘗試遏止排放，石油需求將持續擴張至2040年乃至更遙遠的未來。

“The uncertainties associated with energy and environmental policies at both national and international levels cloud the outlook for energy demand and supply, especially in the long term,” Opec said.

“國家和國際層面能源和環境政策的不確定性，使能源需求和供應的前景（特別是長期前景）被蒙上陰雲，”歐佩克表示。

Opec’s prediction on peak demand also sounds a warning to its members who have already been grappling with a prolonged price downturn. Saudi Arabia, Opec’s largest producer, has been racing to reduce its reliance on oil revenues, launching an ambitious plan to overhaul its economy including listing part of state oil giant Saudi Aramco.

歐佩克有關需求見頂的預測，聽起來也像是對其已經在應對油價持續低迷的成員國發出警告。歐佩克最大的成員國沙特阿拉伯正忙於降低其對石油收入的依賴，推出一個雄心勃勃的計劃來推動經濟轉型，包括將國有的沙特阿美石油公司(Saudi Aramco)的一部分上市。

Opec’s scenario that envisages countries hitting their Paris targets includes poorer nations whose pledges are conditional on financial support. Under that outlook, the cartel said demand peaks in 2029 at 100.9m barrels a day and then declines to 98.3m by 2040. Opec sees oil demand this year at around 94.4m b/d.

歐佩克假設各國達到巴黎減排目標的情形包括較貧窮國家，它們的承諾以財政支持爲條件。在這一前景下，歐佩克稱1.009億桶/日的需求頂峯將在2029年到來，隨後在2040年降至9830萬桶/日。歐佩克認爲今年的石油需求在9440萬桶/日左右。