摩蘇爾大壩可能隨時坍塌殺死150萬人

Engineers and other experts have warned that the collapse of an eight mile (13 kilometre) long dam on the Tigris River in northern Iraq is just a “matter of time”, triggering an environmental disaster which could leave 1.5 million people dead and millions more as far away as Baghdad without food or electricity.

工程師和其他專家們已經對位於伊拉克北部底格里斯河上一座8英里長（13公里）的大壩可能坍塌發出了警告，稱這只是“時間問題”。這可能引發一場環境災難 ，導致150萬人喪生並且使在巴格達的數百萬人面臨食物短缺和電力匱乏。

The Mosul Dam, 40 miles (60 kilometres) away from the Isis-controlled city of the same name, holds 11.1 billion cubic metres of water, and has been plagued by problems since its construction in the 1980s thanks to the fact it was built on soluble ground.

摩蘇爾大壩和40英里（60公里）外伊斯蘭國所控制的城市同名，存有110億立方米的水，建立於20世紀80年代。由於建立於可溶性地面之上，建成以來一直被各種問題所困擾。

It has required constant maintenance to fill the cavities that form underneath the concrete to stop it collapsing ever since.

從那時到現在，這個大壩需要不斷的進行灌漿填補以防止坍塌。

A 2006 US Army Corps engineering report found the “Mosul Dam is the most dangerous dam in the world” - but the situation has become more precarious since Isis took control of the area in 2014, including, briefly, the dam itself. Many of the 1,500 workers stationed there fled, and the extremists damaged much of their equipment.

美國陸軍工程兵團在一份2006年的報告裏表示“摩蘇爾大壩是世界上最危險的大壩”，但是在2014年伊斯蘭國控制了包括大壩的這片區域以後，情況變得更加危險。配置在這裏的1500名工人的大部分已經逃走，激進分子們破壞了大部分的設備。

“It is just a matter of time. It will be worse than throwing a nuclear bomb on Iraq,” Professor Nadhir al-Ansari of the Environmental Engineering Department at Lulea University in Sweden, who inspected the initial construction, told Al-Jazeera.

監督過大壩最初建設的瑞典呂勒奧大學環境工程系教授Nadhir al-Ansari表示：“這只是時間問題，這比用原子彈轟炸伊拉克還糟糕。”

A 2015 study from the European Commission's Science Centre found that even a partial breach of 26 per cent would unleash a flood of catastrophic proportions.

歐盟委員會下屬的科學中心所發佈的一份2015年的研究表明，即使只有26%左右的不分被破壞，這一樣會引發一場大面積的洪災。

A wave of water up to 100 feet (30 metres) high would engulf Mosul in two hours, taking with it people, unexploded bombs, buildings and cars, as well as toxic substances from oil refineries and human waste.

高達100英尺（30米）的巨浪將在兩小時內吞沒摩蘇爾，帶走那裏的人們、還沒爆炸的炸彈、建築物和車輛，同時還有煉油廠的有毒物質和人類的排泄物。

The surrounding flood plains are already home to more than one million people living in tents after being displaced by fighting who would struggle to find protection from the water.

在經歷了一番躲避水災影響的爭鬥以後，上百萬人被趕到了周圍的洪泛區，他們居住在帳篷裏並以此地爲家。

Within four days, both the EU and US experts predict, a wave between six - 36 feet (two - eight metres) high would reach Baghdad, 250 miles (400 kilometres) away.

歐洲和美國的專家們預測，一波6-36英尺（2-8米）高的巨浪將在四日內抵達250英里（400公里）外的巴格達。

The UN predicted last year that in any flooding scenario, up to four million people will be left homeless, and aid will take up to two weeks to reach those in need if airports, electricity grids and roads are knocked out. Iraq’s oil refineries and up to two thirds of its wheat fields would also be affected.

聯合國去年預測，如果出現了洪災的情況，多達400萬人將無家可歸，而在機場、電網和道路不能正常使用的情況下，援助將花費兩週時間才能到達。伊拉克的煉油廠和2/3的麥田也將會受到影響。

New ￡234 million ($300 million) World Bank funded repairs are being carried out by an Italian engineering company, but the fragile security situation in the area is making completion of the work difficult.

一家意大利工程公司獲得了一份由世界銀行出資的的2.34億英鎊（3億美元）的維修合同，但是該地區險惡的安全局勢令這項工作開展起來非常困難。

Millions in need of aid as Iraqi forces advance on Mosul

數百萬人需要援助，伊拉克軍隊向摩蘇爾推進

Kurdish and Italian soldiers remain on constant guard for extremist attacks. In October, an Isis convoy armed with explosives tried to approach the dam but were killed by Kurdish missiles before they reached it.

庫爾德和意大利士兵在此警戒以防備激進分子的攻擊。在10月，一個伊斯蘭國攜帶爆炸物的車隊試圖衝進大壩，但是在抵達目標前就被庫爾德人的導彈所消滅。

A better and more permanent solution would be to build a second dam - but the political and military instability and lack of funds mean this option is highly unlikely.

一個更好的永久性解決方案是再修一個壩，但是政治層面和經濟層面的不穩定，以及資金的匱乏意味着這基本不可能成行。

Iraqi officials have tried to downplay scientists’ and the international community's fears of an imminent disaster, but Professor Ansari remains sceptical the problem will be solved in time.

伊拉克官員試圖將科學家以及國際社會對於這個即將到來的災難的恐懼輕描淡寫，但是Ansari教授仍然對問題將得到及時解決表示懷疑。

“I am convinced the dam could fail tomorrow,” he said.

他表示：“我相信這大壩明天就可能坍塌。”