馬克龍改革成敗的意義

As Emmanuel Macron savours his victory in the French presidential election, he might consider the words of John Maynard Keynes in an open letter, written to Franklin Roosevelt in December 1933. The British economist told the US president: “You have made yourself the Trustee for those in every country who seek to mend the evils of our condition by reasoned experiment within the framework of the existing social system. If you fail, rational change will be gravely prejudiced throughout the world, leaving orthodoxy and revolution to fight it out.”

當埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)回味此次法國總統大選勝利時，他或許會思考約翰?梅納德?凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)在1933年12月寫給富蘭克林?羅斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)的一封公開信中的話。這位英國經濟學家對美國總統說：“您已經使您自己成爲各國有志於在現行社會制度的框架內進行合理的實驗以改正我們所面臨的弊端的受託人。如果您失敗了，合乎理性的變革將在全世界蒙受嚴重的損失，而聽任正統力量與革命去一決雌雄。”

France does not have a global role comparable to the US. But it is certainly true that the success or failure of the new president will matter well beyond France — and even well beyond Europe. If Mr Macron succeeds, the forces of nationalism and political extremism — represented in France by his defeated opponent, Marine Le Pen — will suffer a setback around the world. But if he fails, populism, nationalism and protectionism will soon be resurgent.

法國在全球的角色無法與美國相提並論。但毫無疑問，法國新總統的成敗帶來的影響將遠遠超出法國，甚至遠超出歐洲。如果馬克龍成功了，各種民族主義、政治極端主義勢力——在法國以被他打敗的對手馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)爲代表人物——將在世界各地遭遇挫敗。但如果他失敗的話，民粹主義、民族主義和保護主義很快將再度泛起。

For while Mr Macron can savour a crushing victory over Ms Le Pen, he also knows that 35 per cent of French voters have just voted for a far-right candidate. The cumulative vote for extremists of the far left and the far right in the first round of the presidential election was closer to 50 per cent. That means that almost half of French voters want to smash “the system”.

因爲，雖然馬克龍可以得意於對勒龐的壓倒性勝利，但他也深知，35%的法國選民剛剛把票投給了一位極右翼候選人。在首輪總統選舉投票中，極左和極右翼候選人合計得票接近50%。這意味着，幾乎一半的法國選民希望砸爛“體制”。

It is Mr Macron’s job to show that the system can work better. If he fails, then, as Keynes put it in the 1930s, “rational change will be gravely prejudiced throughout the world”.

馬克龍肩負着如下責任：向民衆證明這一體制能夠運行得更好。如果他失敗了，那麼——正如凱恩斯在上世紀30年代所言——“合乎理性的變革將在全世界蒙受嚴重的損失”。

The chances of failure are quite high. Mr Macron has simultaneously to reinvigorate the French economy and the “European project”. Both are notoriously difficult to reform and face deep structural challenges that might defeat even the most imaginative and dynamic politician.

馬克龍失敗的可能性相當高。馬克龍必須同時重振法國經濟和“歐洲計劃(European project)”。兩者都是出了名的難以改革，還面臨着深層結構性挑戰，這些挑戰甚至可能讓最具想象力、最有活力的政治家沒招。

The tasks of reform at home and in Europe are linked. Unless he can demonstrate to the German government that France is genuinely changing, then the Germans are unlikely to take the risk on the much-deeper EU integration that Mr Macron thinks (probably correctly) is necessary to make the European single currency work.

法國國內改革與歐洲改革的任務是相互關聯的。除非馬克龍能夠向德國政府證明法國真的正在變革，否則，德國人不大可能冒險推進更深層次的歐盟一體化，而馬克龍認爲（他很可能正確）只有這樣做才能使歐洲單一貨幣成功。

At home, the challenges he faces are pretty obvious. The French state is abnormally large, with government spending accounting for 56 per cent of gross domestic product. The private sector is over-regulated and the public finances are over-stretched. Reducing the size of the state and making the labour market more flexible should help to generate jobs and economic growth. But any efforts at neoliberal reforms will inevitably face passionate resistance from the far left, the far right, the unions and a large part of the political establishment. Street demonstrations have stopped previous efforts at economic reform in their tracks for 20 years and more.

在國內，馬克龍面臨的挑戰更顯而易見。法國政府異常龐大，政府支出佔國內生產總值(GDP)的56%。私營部門受到過度監管，公共財政不堪重負。縮小政府規模、讓勞動力市場更具彈性應該有助於創造就業和推動經濟增長。但是，任何新自由主義改革努力都將不可避免地遭到來自極左、極右、工會以及大部分政治建制力量的強烈抵制。在不止20年時間裏，街頭示威已經一次次扼殺此前的經濟改革努力。

Mr Macron’s domestic political base is also fragile. He is, in some ways, an accidental president whose victory was achieved partly because the traditional centre-right and centre-left parties chose unelectable candidates, hamstrung either by extremism or by personal scandal. There is a strong chance that Mr Macron’s new political movement, En Marche!, may not gain enough seats in parliamentary elections in June to allow the new president to get his agenda through, without forming an unstable coalition.

馬克龍在國內的政治基礎也比較脆弱。在某些程度上，他是一位意外當選的總統，他的勝選部分是因爲傳統的中右翼和中左翼政黨選出了不太可能當選的候選人——要麼是因爲秉持極端主義，要麼是因爲個人的醜聞。馬克龍的新政治運動“前進”(En Marche!)很可能無法在6月的議會選舉中贏得足夠席位，除非他組建聯合政府（聯合政府是不穩定的），否則他將無法讓議會通過他的議程。

But Mr Macron’s position as a political newcomer could also be an advantage if he can carve out a new space in the political centre-ground. As a former minister in a Socialist government, Mr Macron could send a bold signal by appointing a prime minister from the opposite political tribe, the centre right. If he can pull in enough support from the right, while retaining the support of the reformist wing of the Socialist party, he could yet create the backing he needs to push through reforms — for example to the country’s 35-hour working week.

但如果馬克龍可以爲中間派開拓出一塊新空間，他作爲政治新手的角色可能也是一項優勢。曾經在社會黨政府擔任部長的他，可能通過從對立的中右翼陣營中任命一位首相來發出一個大膽的信號。如果他可以從右翼獲得足夠支持，同時依然擁有社會黨改革派的支持，他可能會贏得推動改革（比如改革法國的35個小時工作制）所必需的支持。

The problem of opposition on the streets will be real and will have to be faced down. An early pay increase for the police, many of whom will have voted for Ms Le Pen, might be advisable.

反對者走上街頭的問題是切實存在的，必須強硬麪對。提早爲警察加薪（很多警察可能把票投給了勒龐），或許是明智之舉。

If Mr Macron can demonstrate that he is really reforming France, he might then gain the credibility to go to Berlin and demand reforms to the EU. The government of Angela Merkel has been understandably wary of French calls for a loosening of austerity in Europe or for the issuing of common EU debt, believing that they ultimately come down to a desire that thrifty German taxpayers should fund the profligate French state. But there is also a growing awareness in some parts of the German government (the foreign ministry more than the finance ministry) that a failure to give some ground to France and Italy could ultimately prove disastrous for Germany itself, if it means that reformists like Mr Macron fail, and are replaced by radical populists such as Ms Le Pen.

如果馬克龍可以證明他真的在改革法國，那他可能得到足夠的可信度，能夠前往柏林，要求對歐盟進行改革。出於可以理解的理由，安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)政府一直對法國的如下呼籲心存警惕：在歐洲放鬆緊縮；發行歐盟共同債務。默克爾政府認爲，這些呼籲歸根結底是希望節儉的德國納稅人來資助肆意揮霍的法國政府。但德國政府部分部門也日益認識到（外交部的體會比財政部更深），如果不向法國和意大利做出一些讓步——如果這意味着像馬克龍這樣的改革派失敗了，被勒龐這樣的激進民粹主義者取而代之——可能最終對德國本身帶來災難性後果。

The election of Mr Macron will also be greeted warily in London, where it is feared that his passionate defence of the EU will translate into a particularly tough line on Brexit. But a more confident France and a revived EU might be less inclined to see Brexit as a mortal threat, and so more willing to strike a win-win deal that keeps markets open and alliances intact.

倫敦方面也將謹慎地歡迎馬克龍的當選，前者擔心馬克龍保衛歐盟的熱情可能轉化爲對英國退歐的強硬立場。但一個更自信的法國和一個復興的歐盟，可能會不那麼傾向於把英國退歐視爲致命威脅，因而更願意敲定一份雙贏的協議，來保持市場的開放和聯盟關係的完好無損。

There really is a lot riding on the success of President Macron — and not just in France.

法國總統馬克龍的勝利確實關係着很多事情——不只是在法國。