亞洲將迎來核武對峙

Nine national leaders have the power to unleash nuclear devastation but, if it were not for the actions of a traitorous Taiwanese colonel in 1988, that number would be at least 10.

9個國家的領導人有能力啓動核毀滅，但是，如果不是因爲1988年一名臺灣叛逃軍官的舉動，這個數字至少將是10個。

Chang Hsien Yi at 73 years old enjoys a quiet life in Idaho. For years he lived in secrecy in the US because of fears he would be assassinated by Taiwanese agents for revealing the full extent of Taiwan’s secret nuclear weapons programme. His defection gave Washington the evidence it needed to force Taipei to shut down the project.

73歲的張憲義(Chang Hsien Yi)如今在愛達荷州享受着寧靜的生活。他曾經在美國隱居了很多年，因爲他當初向美國和盤托出了臺灣的核武計劃，因此害怕遭到臺灣特工的暗殺。他的叛逃向美國提供了證據，使美國得以迫使臺灣停止該項目。

After decades of silence, Mr Chang has recently written a book on his role in this fascinating and little-known chapter of history. One of the revelations is that his actions, carried out mostly for idealistic reasons, halted Taiwan’s project when it was just one or two years away from producing the bomb.

在幾十年的沉默之後，張憲義不久前寫了一本書，講述了他在那個令人神往、但外界知之甚少的歷史章節中扮演的角色。書中披露的內容之一是，他主要出於理想主義原因而採取的行動，叫停了臺灣的核武計劃，而當時臺灣還差一兩年時間就能造出核彈。

Most worrying of all is the fact that Taiwan, a self-ruled island that China has sworn to “reunify” with the mainland, by force if necessary, could secretly restart its programme at any time and probably produce a weapon within a similar timeframe.

最令人擔憂的事實是：臺灣這個自治島嶼——中國大陸誓言要將其“重新統一”，在必要情況下將使用武力——可能在任何時候悄悄重啓核武計劃，並很可能在相似的時間框架內開發出核武器。

North Korea’s sabre-rattling and headlong race to build a warhead that could reach the US has brought the modern arms race into sharp focus in recent months. Presented with the ignoble example of Muammer Gaddafi, killed eight years after agreeing to abandon his nuclear weapons, the youthful dictator Kim Jong Un is unlikely to follow suit in response to threats or bribes.

近幾個月來，朝鮮的炫耀武力以及不顧一切地開發可以打到美國的核彈頭，使這場現代軍備競賽成爲人們關注的焦點。穆阿邁爾?卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)在同意放棄利比亞核武計劃的8年後被殺，面對這個不光彩例子，年輕獨裁者金正恩(Kim Jong Un)在面對威脅或“賄賂”時不太可能仿效卡扎菲。

That means, unless the US and its allies are willing to risk a devastating war to remove Mr Kim, regional governments will soon have to ask whether America is willing to sacrifice Los Angeles for Tokyo or Seoul.

這意味着，除非美國及其盟國現在就願意爲除掉金正恩而冒險打一場毀滅性戰爭，否則地區各國政府很快將不得不問：美國是否願意爲了東京或首爾而犧牲洛杉磯？

As the Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan points out, the answer is obviously “no”. So the outcome is that Japan and South Korea will soon be forced to develop nuclear deterrents. As in the case of Taiwan, Japan has the capability to develop such weaponry very quickly — and is likely to do so even if Donald Trump does not follow through on his campaign promise to lift the US nuclear umbrella from over east Asia. Seoul will not be far behind.

正如新加坡外交官比拉哈里?考西坎(Bilahari Kausikan)所指出的，答案顯然是“不願意”。那麼結果就是，日本和韓國很快將被迫發展核威懾手段。就像臺灣的情況一樣，日本擁有很快開發出核武器的能力，並且很可能真會這麼做——即便唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)不兌現從東亞撤掉美國覈保護傘的競選承諾。韓國也將不會落後很多。

If this scenario is now unavoidable, the question is what that means for peace and stability. Under the theory of deterrence made popular during the cold war, the prospect of mutually assured destruction dissuaded all sides from acting rashly.

如果說目前這一局面已不可避免，那麼問題在於，這對和平與穩定而言意味着什麼？依據冷戰期間盛行起來的威懾理論，相互確保摧毀(MAD)的前景勸阻了各方魯莽行事。

Mr Kausikan uses this same logic to argue that a nuclear arms race in north-east Asia would lead to a similar uneasy equilibrium. He believes a nuclear balance of terror would have the added benefit (from the perspective of Washington, Tokyo and Seoul) of freezing the status quo in the region and thwarting Beijing’s revanchist goal of recreating an east Asian order with China at its apex.

新加坡的考西坎根據相同的邏輯提出，東北亞核軍備競賽將導致一種類似的不穩定均衡狀態。他認爲，一種核恐怖平衡將帶來額外的好處（從美日韓的視角看），即固化地區現狀，挫敗北京方面重建一個由中國主導的東亞秩序的復仇主義目標。

Mr Kausikan is correct that a nuclear-free North Korea is now a very unlikely prospect. The regime in Pyongyang will probably collapse — one day — in full possession of its nuclear arsenal, a terrifying prospect but one that the world has seen before with the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Unless that happens soon, nuclear build-up in the region is almost inevitable. Faced with this prospect, it is tempting to be sanguine and gamble on the logic of deterrence.

考西坎正確地認爲，朝鮮棄核現在已經不太可能。擁有完整核武庫的平壤政權有朝一日很可能會崩潰，這種前景很恐怖，但之前蘇聯的解體讓世界看到過這種局面。除非朝鮮很快崩潰，否則地區核軍備競賽幾乎是不可避免的。面對這種情景，誘惑是採取既來之則安之的態度，押注於威懾邏輯。

Taiwan’s nascent nuclear programme should make everybody pause. Beijing has sworn to carry out pre-emptive strikes if it believes Taipei is close to deploying its own weapon. But in a neighbourhood where everyone else has gone nuclear, could the world really expect Taiwan — or Singapore or Malaysia or Indonesia or Australia — to restrain themselves?

臺灣半途而廢的核武計劃應當讓所有人三思。北京方面誓言，如果其認爲臺灣接近部署自己的核武器，將發起先發制人打擊。但在其他所有人都已擁核的東亞地區，世界真的可以期待臺灣——或新加坡、馬來西亞、印尼、澳大利亞——自我剋制嗎？

Unfortunately, the days when a single idealistic traitor could halt the advance of mass destruction are far behind us.

遺憾的是，那種一名理想主義的叛變者就能叫停大規模殺傷性武器發展的日子，早已一去不復返了。