特朗普“通俄門”恐釀憲政危機

Is this the beginning of the end for Donald Trump? Only Robert Mueller, the special counsel, is in any position to answer that, and perhaps not even then. But his target is clear.

這是唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)末日的開端嗎？只有特別檢察官羅伯特?米勒(Robert Mueller)有能力回答這個問題，也許即便是他也不能。但他的目標很明確。

The decision to indict Paul Manafort, Mr Trump’s former campaign manager, for money laundering, tax evasion, and ten other criminal counts, is dramatic enough. Never before has a presidential campaign manager been charged with laundering millions while working for a foreign agent — nowhere close.

以洗錢、逃稅和其他10項罪名起訴特朗普前競選經理保羅?馬納福特(Paul Manafort)已經足夠有戲劇性。以前從來沒有一個總統競選經理被指控洗錢數以百萬計的美元並且爲外國代理人工作——無人稍有可及。

That Mr Mueller swiftly followed up with the disclosure that George Papadopoulos, a former Trump campaign adviser, had confessed to having lied to the FBI over his contacts with Russia cemented the message. Mr Mueller could have published the Papadopolous charge sheet weeks ago. He did so within two hours of releasing the Manafort indictment.

米勒還迅速追加披露，前特朗普競選顧問喬治?帕帕佐普洛斯(George Papadopoulos)承認，他在與俄羅斯接觸一事上對美國聯邦調查局(FBI)撒謊，這強化了此次起訴傳出的訊息。米勒本可以在數週前公開對帕帕佐普洛斯的控罪書。然而，他在公開對馬納福特的起訴書後兩小時內採取了這一行動。

Three things are clear. First, Mr Mueller aims to prove that Mr Trump’s campaign colluded with Russia. We cannot know whether he will succeed. But it is clear that he is shaking every tree and pursuing every lead available.

有三件事是清楚的。首先，米勒的目的是證明特朗普的競選與俄羅斯有勾結。我們無從得知他是否能夠成功。但顯然他正在給所有人制造壓力，追查每一條可行的線索。

Papadopolous has clearly “flipped” and is co-operating with his investigation. Mr Manafort, and his business associate, Richard Gates, are now under pressure to follow suit. The multiple charges against them could result in many years behind bars. They will be highly incentivised to strike a plea deal with Mr Mueller to slim down their charge sheets.

帕帕佐普洛斯顯然已經“崩潰”，正在配合米勒的調查。馬納福特及其商業夥伴理查德?蓋茨(Richard Gates)也正承受着配合調查的壓力。針對他們的多項指控可能導致多年的牢獄生涯。與米勒達成認罪協議以縮短控罪書對兩人而言將是一個極其誘惑的選項。

Others in Mr Mueller’s sights include Michael Flynn, Mr Trump’s first national security adviser, who resigned shortly after he took the job over having failed to disclose his campaign contacts with the Russian government.

米勒的其他目標包括特朗普的首任國家安全顧問邁克爾?弗林(Michael Flynn)。弗林因爲未能公開他同俄羅斯政府與競選有關的接觸而在就任這一職位後不久辭職。

Further up the chain, Mr Mueller’s targets could include Donald Trump Jr, the president’s eldest son, and Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, both of whom joined Mr Manafort for a meeting with a Russian government-linked lawyer during the campaign.

繼續擴大範圍，米勒的目標可能還包括總統的長子小唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump Jr)以及女婿賈裏德?庫什納(Jared Kushner)，兩人都曾與馬納福特一起，在競選期間與一個與俄羅斯政府有聯繫的律師會面。

The more Mr Mueller squeezes, the more indictments are likely to follow. As the most seasoned investigator in the US, it is safe to say Mr Mueller knows what he is doing. When and how he moves will be carefully thought out.

米勒越是施壓，後續就越有可能出現更多的起訴書。作爲美國最有經驗的調查人員，可以說米勒知道自己在做什麼。他在何時、以何種方式採取行動都是經過仔細考慮的。

Second, Mr Trump is an expert at diversion. Expect dramatic fireworks in the coming hours and days. Over the weekend, Mr Trump sent a flurry of tweets about Hillary Clinton’s alleged collusion with a Russian-owned uranium company while she was secretary of state. The story has been relentlessly pursued by Fox News, Breitbart and other pro-Trump outlets.

第二，特朗普是轉移視線的專家。可以預計，接下來數小時到數天將會出現戲劇性的煙幕彈。週末，特朗普就希拉里?克林頓(Hillary Clinton)在任國務卿期間涉嫌與一家俄羅斯鈾公司勾結一事發表了一系列Twitter帖子。福克斯新聞(Fox News)、Breitbart和其他親特朗普的媒體渠道對此事大肆渲染。

Republican legislators are threatening to set up congressional inquiries into Mrs Clinton’s role in approving the sale of a controlling stake in Uranium One, a Canadian-owned company that mines roughly a fifth of US uranium extraction. That story is likely to intensify. Mr Trump urged nameless entities on Twitter on Sunday to “DO SOMETHING” about Mrs Clinton’s “crimes”. Either way, the “lock her up” mantra is back in the headlines and is directly related to Mr Trump’s sense of vulnerability.

共和黨議員們威脅要對希拉里在批准出售Uranium One公司的控股股份中的作用展開國會調查，Uranium One是一家加拿大公司，佔美國鈾礦開採的大約五分之一。這件事很可能繼續發酵。特朗普週日在Twitter上敦促未指明實體針對希拉里的“罪行”“做點什麼”。不論怎樣，“逮捕她”的口號又回到了媒體頭條，並與特朗普的無助感直接相關。

Meanwhile, Mr Trump’s 11-day trip to Asia, which is his most strategically-important since becoming president, is likely to be overshadowed, if not consumed, by the fire back in Washington. He leaves on Friday. Should we expect a new round of rhetorical salvos on North Korea?

與此同時，特朗普爲期11天的亞洲之行，可能由於華盛頓這回“後院起火”而黯然失色甚至被毀掉，而這是特朗普出任美國總統以來最具戰略重要性的一次訪問。特朗普將於週五啓程。我們該預計他對朝鮮展開新一輪喊話嗎？

Third — and most critically — the judgment that matters most is that of the Republican party. Mr Trump has made it clear he would like to fire Mr Mueller. Most people would see that as obstruction of justice, which is an impeachable offence. No court can prevent Mr Trump from firing Mr Mueller. Mr Trump can only be impeached by Congress, which is Republican controlled. Nor can any court stop Mr Trump from pardoning people whom Mr Mueller indicts. Only Republicans can hold Mr Trump to account.

第三，也是最關鍵的，最重要的裁決是共和黨的裁決。特朗普已明確表示他想解僱米勒。大多數人會認爲這妨礙司法，是可以被彈劾的過失。但任何法庭都無法阻止特朗普解僱米勒。唯一能夠彈劾特朗普的是由共和黨控制的國會。也沒有任何法庭能夠阻止特朗普赦免被米勒起訴的那些人。只有共和黨能向特朗普問責。

So far very few elected Republicans have said anything about the Manafort indictment. Nor have they drawn a red line against the firing of Mr Mueller.

到目前爲止，還沒有幾個當選的共和黨人對馬納福特被起訴說過什麼。也沒有人反對特朗普解僱米勒。

Opinion polls suggest Republican voters remain strongly behind Mr Trump, which is the number that matters most to Republican legislators. Unless that changes, Mr Trump may feel that he can get away with sacking Mr Mueller. At that point America would be plunged into a constitutional crisis. I would now put the chances of that happening at more than 50-50.

民意調查顯示共和黨的選民們仍然強烈支持特朗普，這也是共和黨議員最關心的數字。除非支持率發生變化，否則特朗普也許覺得他可以爲所欲爲地解僱米勒。那時美國將會陷入憲政危機。目前我認爲那種狀況發生的機率超過50%。