普京重拾冷戰式諜戰

I’ve just finished writing a book that took me into the world of Russian-British double agents during the cold war. I watched these people hop between countries, haunt British prime ministers and (if they were Russians) get killed. (British traitors, especially posh ones, usually walked away scot-free.)

我剛寫完一本書，這本書把我帶回了冷戰時期俄英雙面間諜的世界。我看着這些人穿梭於各國之間，令英國曆任首相感到苦惱，並遭到殺害（如果他們是俄羅斯人的話）。（而英奸們，尤其是上流社會人士，通常可以逍遙法外。）

Little has changed today. Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia are lying critically ill in Salisbury, weeks after being attacked with a Soviet-era nerve agent. The former Soviet secret policeman Vladimir Putin is recreating the world that shaped him: cold-war spying. Putin can manipulate us because he has learnt that in espionage, it’s not generally the secrets that matter. It’s the reaction of the public, media and politicians whenever spies are exposed to the light.

如今，一切似乎都沒變。俄羅斯雙面間諜謝爾蓋?斯克裏帕爾(Sergei Skripal)和女兒尤利婭(Yulia)仍處於病危之中，兩人幾周前在索爾茲伯裏遭到一種蘇聯時期神經毒劑的襲擊。蘇聯祕密警察出身的弗拉基米爾?普京(Vladimir Putin)正在重建那個曾經塑造了他的世界：冷戰式諜戰。普京之所以能夠操縱我們，是因爲他明白，諜報活動中最重要的通常不是那些機密，而是每當間諜暴露在聚光燈下時，公衆、媒體和政客們的反應。

For two countries that didn’t have much to do with each other until rich Russians colonised central London this century, Russia and the UK have long engaged in vast mutual spying. But most of it was useless. British double agents such as Kim Philby and Guy Burgess often complained that the Soviets ignored their finds. Many of the British documents that Burgess gave the KGB weren’t even translated into Russian.

雖然俄英兩國之間沒有太多打交道的地方——直至本世紀衆多俄羅斯富豪移居倫敦市中心——但兩國相互進行大規模情報刺探由來已久。然而，這些諜報活動大部分都沒什麼價值。英國雙面間諜，如金?菲爾比(Kim Philby)和蓋伊?伯吉斯(Guy Burgess)，經常抱怨蘇聯方面無視他們的發現。伯吉斯發送給克格勃(KGB)的許多英國文件甚至都未翻譯成俄文。

One problem was paranoia. You can recruit a traitor, but you can never trust him. The KGB always suspected a golden double agent like Philby of being a British plant.

問題之一是多疑。你可以招募一名叛國者，但你永遠不能信任他。克格勃總是懷疑菲爾比這樣有前途的雙面間諜是英國人設的圈套。

Even when the Soviets believed a piece of intelligence, it tended to get lost. Sometimes the suitcases full of British secrets were too overwhelming. Sometimes intelligence got fragmented or distorted as it was passed up the KGB’s hierarchy. And if the information displeased the boss, it was usually ditched.

即便蘇聯方面相信某條情報，這條情報也常常不知所終。有時，裝滿英國機密信息的手提箱信息量太大，蘇聯方面實在處理不過來。有時，情報會在克格勃內部層層上報的過程中變得不完整或被傳變了樣。而且，如果情報令老大不悅，通常會被棄用。

Most fatefully, in 1941, Richard Sorge, a Soviet agent in Tokyo, repeatedly warned the Kremlin that Germany would soon invade the USSR. On May 15 he predicted that the invasion would come on June 20-22. But Sorge’s information displeased the boss: Stalin was then still in alliance with Germany. (Famously, Hitler was said to be the only person he trusted.) Stalin dismissed Sorge as “a little shit who has set himself up with some small factories and brothels in Japan”. The German invasion on June 22 stunned the USSR.

最致命的一例是，1941年，駐東京的蘇聯特工理查德?佐爾格(Richard Sorge)屢次提醒克里姆林宮，德國很快將進攻蘇聯。那年5月15日，他預測進攻將在6月20日至22日發起。但佐爾格提供的情報惹惱了老大：當時斯大林(Stalin)仍與德國保持聯盟關係。（希特勒(Hitler)據稱當時是他唯一信任的人。）斯大林不屑地形容佐爾格是“一個混跡日本小工廠和妓院的人渣”。結果，德國6月22日發起的進攻打得蘇聯措手不及。