羅傑斯:買黃金不如投資農業

Renowned American investor Jim Rogers has attracted global attention with his prediction that gold prices will fall to $900 an ounce. His words carry weight not just because of his years in the industry, but because two years ago the retired hedge fund manager, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, correctly said that gold – then hitting peak prices – would drop to $1,200 an ounce.

著名的美國投資者吉姆•羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)因其有關黃金價格將跌至每盎司900美元的預測吸引了全世界的注意力。他的講話具有市場影響力不僅僅是由於他深厚的行業歷練，還因爲兩年前這名退休的對衝基金經理（他曾與喬治•索羅斯(George Soros)共同創立量子基金(Quantum Fund)）成功地預測到了當時漲至峯值的黃金價格將跌至每盎司1200美元。

Gold, he repeatedly warns, is not a mystical commodity and its real bottom will not be reached until those investors who think it cannot fall have all left the market.

他不斷地警告稱，黃金並不是一種神祕的商品，只有當那些認爲黃金價格不會下跌的投資者全部退出市場以後，金價纔有可能真正觸底。

Mr Rogers is on a mission to convince the investment world to look seriously at agriculture. He explains to Elaine Moore why he thinks it will be a source of profit for years to come.

羅傑斯力圖說服投資界認真考察農業領域。他向伊萊恩•摩爾(Elaine Moore)解釋了自己爲何認爲農業在未來幾年將成爲一大投資收益來源。

Why do you think gold prices are going to keep falling?

問：你爲何認爲黃金價格將持續下跌？

Gold has gone up 12 years in a row, which is terribly unusual for any asset, so it would be an anomaly if there was not a correction.

答：黃金價格已經持續上漲了12年，這對任何一種資產來說都是極其罕見的，因此市場若不出現一次回調的話將會非常反常。

I am terrible at market timing but I expect gold to go down 50 per cent from its peak, which would take it to about $900. I’m not selling gold at the moment but if it falls or if it gets down there, then I hope I will be smart enough to buy more.

我並不善於找準市場時點，但我預計黃金價格相對於其峯值將下跌50%，也就是說跌至約每盎司900美元的水平。現階段我並沒有賣出黃金，但如果黃金價格下跌或者跌至上述水平，那我希望自己到時能夠足夠明智地購買更多黃金。

Why does gold attract so much attention?

問：爲什麼黃金會引發如此強烈的關注？

I can’t tell you why, but I always have the same experience. When I speak at investment events there is always someone asking about gold. I’d rather talk about agriculture.

答：我無法告訴你原因何在，但我對此有着切身感受。當我在投資界的活動上發言時，總會有人問起黃金。而我更願意談談農業。

What do you want to say about agriculture?

問：關於農業你想談些什麼？

I think there is more money to be made in agriculture. I don’t think we’ve had the final bottom in gold but we must be nearing it in sugar. Sugar is down 75 per cent from its all-time high – there’s not much in the world that’s down 75 per cent.

答：我認爲農業領域更具獲利前景。我認爲黃金價格還沒有跌至終極低點，但蔗糖價格已經接近底部。蔗糖價格相對於其歷史最高水平已經下跌了75%——世界上很少有什麼資產的價格跌幅達到了75%。

I think that farming is going to become one of the most exciting professions in the next 20 years. The average age of a farmer in the US is 58, in Korea it’s 65. It is an old profession and the people in it are dying out or retiring. In the US, more people study public relations than agriculture.

我認爲，農業將成爲未來20年中最激動人心的職業發展領域之一。目前美國農民的平均年齡爲58歲，韓國則爲65歲。農業是一個老齡化的行業，從業者要麼臨近退休，要麼衰老死去。在美國，學習公共關係的人比學習農業的人更多。

The world is facing a serious demographic and production problem. If something doesn’t change then we won’t have food at any price. Prices will have to go up a lot to attract labour and the Food and Agriculture Organisation has tried to get people to see this crisis. They see what I see. What more do you need to know?

目前全球面臨着嚴峻的人口結構及糧食生產問題。如果不做出改變，那麼無論支付怎樣的高價，我們也買不到糧食。糧食價格必須大幅上漲才能吸引到進行生產所需的勞動力，聯合國糧農組織(UN Food and Agriculture Organisation)爲使人們認識到這場危機做出了努力。他們已經看到了我所看到的問題。你還需要再知道些什麼呢？

People blame it on speculators but it isn’t about them – it’s about the fact that inventories are now at the lowest they’ve been in recorded history and even though we have had good crops in the past decade, production cannot keep up with demand. In the past if we had problems with the weather, then we had huge inventories. But now we don’t have inventories and we don’t have farmers.

人們把糧食漲價的責任歸咎於農產品投機者，但問題並不是由他們造成的——問題的根源在於，農產品儲備量現已跌至歷史低點，雖然近十年來我們的糧食收成不錯，但產出跟不上需求的增長。過去如果我們遇到了天氣問題，我們尚且有大規模的糧食儲備應急。而現在我們既缺乏糧食儲備，又缺少種糧的農民。

Why isn’t there more interest in this sector?

問：爲什麼對農業感興趣的人不多？

We’ve had long cycles where the financial sector was in charge, followed by times when the people who make things were in charge. We’re at a midpoint now.

答：我們經歷了金融行業占主導地位的長週期，隨後又經歷了製造業人士引領潮流的時期。現在我們正處於一箇中間點。

When I was at college [Mr Rogers was born in 1942] people used to talk about the City and Wall Street as backwaters. Now the kids at Oxford all want to start hedge funds. But the fundamentals have changed so much. There is so much competition in finance and banking in the rest of the world, we have gigantic leverage in the industry and now every government is coming down hard against financial types. I think finance is going to be a terrible place to be for the next 10, 20, 30 years.

當我還在大學讀書的時候（羅傑斯生於1942年），人們習慣於將倫敦金融城以及華爾街稱爲死水一樣的落後地方。現如今，牛津大學(Oxford University)的學生們都想要成立對衝基金。但這個行業的基本狀況已經發生了很大變化。世界其他地區的金融與銀行業競爭非常激烈，行業內的槓桿水平很高，並且現在每個國家的政府都在嚴加管束金融業人士。我認爲在未來的10年、20年甚至30年中，金融都將是一個糟糕的職業方向。

You set up the RICI [Rogers International Commodity Index] in the late 1990s, how are you investing in agriculture?

問：你在二十世紀九十年代晚期創立了羅傑斯國際商品指數(Rogers International Commodity Index)，你在農業領域是如何進行投資的呢？

I mainly buy agricultural products – farms. I buy publicly traded farms in Australia and Indonesia and Africa. But you can invest in tractors and fertilisers and seeds – there are lots of ways into this.

答：我主要購買的是農產品——還有農場。我在澳大利亞、印度尼西亞以及非洲收購公開交易的農場。你也可以投資於拖拉機、肥料以及種子——有很多投資農業領域的途徑。

What else are you currently investing in?

問：目前你還投資於其他哪些領域？

Well, apart from agriculture I’m looking at the US dollar because there will be more currency turmoil in the future and I think a lot of people are going to flee to the US dollar as a haven. The Chinese currency will also continue to be strong, and sugar, which I’ve mentioned. I’m also buying shares in airlines and I’m looking at Russia, which I’ve been pessimistic about since 1966, but which I’m now changing my views on.

答：除了農業以外，我還關注美元走勢，因爲未來匯率市場還將出現更多的動盪，而我認爲將有很多人大規模買入美元作爲避險資產。人民幣匯率也將繼續走強，還有我之前提過的蔗糖。此外我還購買航空公司的股票，並關注俄羅斯局勢，自從1966年以來我對該國一直持悲觀態度，但我正在調整自己的這一觀點。

What are your views on passive investment?

問：你對被動投資模式怎麼看？

There are plenty of studies that show that index investing outperforms 80 per cent of active managers, so passive investing is the best way for most investors. If you are a good stock picker then, sure, do that, but the evidence is so strong that basically most people should use passive investments.

答：大量研究顯示，指數化投資的收益高於80%的主動型投資經理。因此被動投資對於絕大多數投資者而言是最佳選擇。如果你善於挑選股票，那麼你當然可以這麼做，但相關研究證據極具說服力地表明，基本上，大多數人都應採用被動投資。