昔日霸主諾基亞欲憑廉價手機突圍

It is telling that one of the devices garnering much attention at this week's Mobile World Congress is a phone that will start at an unsubsidized price of about $122.

在本週的全球移動通訊大會(Mobile World Congress)上，一款非合約版起價只有122美元的手機引起了大家的關注。

Even more telling: the device is from Nokia, using the Android operating system that is owned by Google, rival to Nokia's soon-to-be parent Microsoft. Another twist is that smartphone buyers in established markets such as North America may never see it. The Nokia X is targeted at regions including India, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East where consumers have limited funds for wireless gizmos.

更重要的是，這款手機是諾基亞公司(Nokia Co.)推出的，採用谷歌(Google Inc.)安卓(Android)系統，谷歌是微軟(Microsoft Co.)的競爭對手，而微軟即將成爲諾基亞東家。還有一個出人意料之處，這款名爲Nokia X的手機不投放北美等成熟市場，而是面向印度、拉美、非洲和中東等手機購買力較弱的市場發售。

Microsoft may feel a bit unsettled by the move, but it is illustrative of the limited options available to companies in the smartphone business whose names aren't Apple, Google or Samsung. The Android and iOS platforms accounted for nearly 96% of all smartphones shipped last year, according to IDC. Samsung and Apple together accounted for more than 46% of global shipments by vendor, with everyone else getting single-digit market shares.

微軟或許會稍感不安，不過這說明了在智能手機市場，除了蘋果(Apple Inc.)、谷歌或三星(Samsung Electronics Co.)以外的公司選擇有限。國際數據公司(International Data Corporation, 簡稱IDC)表示，去年安卓和iOS智能手機的發貨量佔有率幾乎達到96%。三星和蘋果佔全球智能手機制造商發貨量的46%以上，所有其他品牌的市場份額均不到10%。

This is why many observers write off other companies as also-rans. But it is important to realize that smartphones are unlike the PC market that Microsoft has dominated with Windows.

這也是爲什麼許多觀察人士將其他手機公司一概歸入失敗者的行列。不過需要指出的是，智能手機市場與微軟Windows占主導地位的PC市場是有差別的。

Compared to PCs, smartphones have a shorter replacement cycle and are often not locked down by employers, which often allow staff to choose their own devices. So customers aren't permanent; they can shift to new devices and platforms.

相比個人電腦，智能手機的更換週期更短，而且一般老闆不會要求僱員必須使用哪種手機，而是允許員工自行選擇手機。因此手機用戶不是永久不變的，他們隨時可能換一部新手機或是改用別的操作系統。

In this light, a bet like the one being placed by Microsoft and Nokia isn't a surefire loser. Microsoft will try to sell Nokia X buyers on its own software and services, with hopes of converting them to a Windows Phone down the road. The dynamics of the smartphone market are also why new entrants including Lenovo and Asus still smell opportunity despite their late start.

這樣看來，微軟和諾基亞的這步棋並非註定失敗。微軟會努力向購買Nokia X手機的用戶推薦自己的軟件和服務，寄希望於有朝一日這些用戶會改用Windows Phone。智能手機市場的這種特性也說明了像聯想集團有限公司(Lenovo Group Ltd., 簡稱：聯想集團)和華碩(Asus)這種後來者爲什麼仍然能嗅到機會。

But it remains a stretch. The easy money is gone, and profits will be harder to come by. IDC forecasts the smartphone market to grow at 18.4% per year to 2017, after averaging 46.5% over the last three years. Handset average selling prices, meanwhile, are expected to hit about $265 by 2017--down 21% from 2013, IDC predicts. Apple and Samsung still claim most of the available profits given their ability to squeeze large price subsidies from wireless carriers.

不過後來者要挑戰行業巨頭也絕非易事。智能手機的暴利時代結束了，賺錢變得越來越困難。IDC預測，智能手機市場的年增長率到2017年將降至18.4%，過去三年的平均增長率爲46.5%。IDC還預計，手機平均售價到2017年將跌至265美元左右，較2013年下跌21%。蘋果和三星仍將佔據大部分利潤，因爲它們的議價能力更強，能夠從無線運營商那裏爭取到較多的價格補貼。

New entrants will need to prove their devices can sell volumes big enough to maintain support from carriers and retailers. More of those sales will be made on price rather than features--and there is no app that makes that easy.

後來者必須證明自己的手機能夠大賣，否則難免會失去運營商和零售商的支持。對這些手機生產商來說，產品能不能暢銷更多地取決於價格而不是性能，這絕不是容易做到的事。