蘇富比重回古董車拍賣市場遇冷

Classic cars have a reputation for being a lucrative, if not the most lucrative “luxury investment,” but last Monday night they scraped up against some wider realities.

古董車一向被認爲是利潤豐厚（甚至是最豐厚）的“奢侈投資品”，但是上週一（9月7日）晚上，它們不得不面對更宏大的現實。

Affluent aficionados of 1960s Ferraris and 1980s Porsches filed past about 50 chanting and whistling protesters on the way to the first London sale of the newly pArtnered classic car auctioneers, RM Sotheby’s, in Battersea Park. The small demonstration was part of a campaign to reinstate two cleaners who were suspended by Sotheby’s after they had participated in a protest over salaries and sick pay before its contemporary art auction on Bond Street on July 1.

一干鍾情於20世紀60年代法拉利(Ferrari)或80年代保時捷(Porsche)的富豪車迷在前往巴特西公園(Battersea Park)參加新結盟的RM蘇富比拍賣行(RM Sotheby’s)的首屆倫敦古董車拍賣會時，遇到約50名呼喊、吹口哨的抗議者。這次小規模抗議活動旨在呼籲蘇富比公司恢復兩名清潔員的工作。7月1日，蘇富比在邦德街舉辦當代藝術拍賣會前，這兩位清潔員參加了一個要求增加薪資和病假工資的抗議活動，因此遭到解僱。

The 1,000 or so dealers, collectors, speculators and spectators who arrived on Monday concentrated on finding out whether classic cars were still a high-performance investment, despite a gloomy economy at their doorsteps and internationally, particularly in China.

包括交易商、收藏家、投機家和觀察家在內的約一千名嘉賓參加了週一的拍賣會。他們最關心的是古董車是否仍是利潤豐厚的投資優選，儘管英國以及國際（尤其是中國）經濟不景氣。

It turned out that, for the most part, the engine of growth has slowed. The 76-lot event raised 16.7 million, about $25.7 million, with most lots selling around the low estimate and 26 percent of the cars unsold.

結果證明，總的來說，增長勢頭已經放緩。這場拍賣會共有76件拍品，共拍得1670萬英鎊，約合2570萬美元，大部分拍品的售價在最低估價左右，且有26%的古董車流拍。

The total was well below the 22 million that RM Auctions of Canada achieved at its equivalent sale in London in September. (On Feb. 18, Sotheby’s paid $30.7 million for a 25 percent stake in RM Auctions, with options to increase its share.) The unsold rate could have been higher, but some sellers lowered their reserve prices before the sale began, or hadn’t demanded a reserve at all. Among 23 lots of the latter was a 1987 AC Cobra Mk IV convertible, which sold to a buyer in the room for just 61,600 with fees, against a low estimate of 120,000.

這次拍賣會的總成交額遠遠低於RM拍賣行(RM Auctions)加拿大分部去年9月在倫敦舉辦的同類拍賣會，後者的總成交額爲2200萬英鎊（今年2月18日，蘇富比以3070萬美元購得RM拍賣行25%的股權，並有權增加自己的股權份額）。本次拍賣會的流拍比例本可能更高，但是有些賣家在拍賣會前降低了保留價，或者壓根沒設定保留價。共有23輛拍品未設定保留價，包括一輛1987年的AC Cobra Mk IV折蓬車，它被現場的一位買家以區區6.16萬英鎊（含佣金）購得，而預估的最低價爲12萬英鎊。

“People are coming down to earth, even though some sellers still have their heads in the clouds,” said Simon Kidston, a dealer in Geneva who founded the classic car index last December. “Buyers are financially aware and they get spooked if there is bad news elsewhere.”

西蒙·基德斯頓(Simon Kidston)是日內瓦的一位交易商。去年12月，他創立了古董車交易指數網站。他說，“人們變得越來越現實，儘管有些賣家仍有過高的期望。買家們在價格方面很敏感，如果其他方面出現壞消息，他們會很驚慌。”

In recent years, the top level of the classic car market has been dominated by signature Ferraris from the 1950s and ’60s. A 1958 example of Ferrari’s highly successful 250 GT Berlinetta Competizione “Tour de France” coupe, with a modest racing history and restored original 263 b.h.p. engine, duly topped the sale with a price of 4.8 million against a low estimate of 4.5 million.

近些年，頂級古董車市場由20世紀五六十年代的法拉利標誌性跑車主導。比如，法拉利非常成功的1958年版250GT Berlinetta Competizione “Tour de France”轎跑車曾參與賽車，成績平平，原裝的263b.h.p.發動機也得到修復，很自然地在那場拍賣會上拔得頭籌，以480萬英鎊成交，略高於最低估價450萬英鎊。

In 2013, the HAGI (Historic Auto Group International) Top Index of auction and dealer sales of exceptional collectable cars gained 46.75 percent; in 2014, it was up 15.8 percent; so far this year (up to the end of August), it has gained 8 percent.

2013年，英國汽車市場研究公司HAGI(Historic Automobile Group International)的頂級拍賣指數和交易商頂級珍藏汽車銷售額增長了46.75%；2014年的增長比例爲15.6%；今年截至8月底，增長比例爲8%。

“It’s definitely slowing down,” said Dietrich Hatlapa, the founder of the HAGI Index, who, like many observers of the classic car market, attribute much of its top-end growth in recent years to wealthy Americans and Europeans benefiting from central banks’ quantitative easing and low interest rates. “People felt comfortable about having 10 percent of their wealth in classic cars, saw values rise and then increased the capital allocation to 15 or 20 percent. The global liquidity just isn’t there any more.”

HAGI指數創始人迪特里希·哈特拉帕(Dietrich Hatlapa)和古董車市場的很多觀察家一樣，認爲近年來高端古董車的銷售增長主要是因爲美國和歐洲各國央行推行量化寬鬆政策和低利率，富裕階層因此獲益。他說，“當前的市場確實在下滑。以前，人們願意拿出資產的10%投入古董車市場，看到價格不斷上漲後，他們又把這部分資產配置增加到15%或20%。可惜那種全球流通的局面已不復存在。”

This slowdown was also evident in the overall results at the bellwether specialist car auctions in Monterey, Calif., last month. While RM Sotheby’s led the series with $167.2 million of auction sales, including a week-topping $17.6 million for a 1964 Ferrari 250 LM Coupe, the final cumulative total of $396.8 million at auctions by RM Sotheby’s, Gooding & Co., Bonhams, Mecum, Russo & Steele and JR was 7.9 percent lower than the $428.1 million taken at the equivalent public sales in August 2014, according to data provided by Hagerty, a Michigan-based company that values and insures classic cars.

從上個月在加利福尼亞州蒙特雷舉行的領頭專家汽車拍賣會的總體行情看，這種下滑勢頭已經十分明顯。據密歇根的古董車估價兼保險公司Hagerty提供的數據，雖然RM蘇富比拍賣行以1.672億美元的總拍賣額領跑，其中一輛1964年產法拉利250LM轎跑車創造了當周最高價1760萬美元，但是RM蘇富比、Gooding&Co.、邦瀚斯拍賣行(Bonhams)、Mecum、Russo&Steele和JR舉辦的拍賣會的總拍賣額僅爲3.968億美元，比2014年8月的同類公開拍賣會的總成交額4.281億美元降低了7.9%。

Auctions of classic cars have a singular atmosphere. Crowded with middle-aged men, all of whom seem to know the exact history, condition and value of every lot, these events increasingly only have the capacity to surprise when an extreme rarity comes under the hammer.

古董車拍賣會具有獨特的氣氛。現場擠滿了中年男人，他們似乎都知道每件拍賣汽車的確切歷史、保養狀況和價值。除非出現罕見的拍品，很難有驚喜可言。

“The dynamics of the market are changing,” Mr. Kidston said. “If something is truly exceptional, buyers will pay a good price. If it isn’t, they’ll wait and know another one will come along.”

基德斯頓說，“市場的活力在變化。如果真有珍品出現，買家們願意報出高價。如果沒有，他們寧願等待，因爲他們知道會有別的車出現。”

On Sept. 5, for example, Bonhams achieved a top-estimate 3.3 million euros, about $3.7 million, for a unique surviving prototype of Maserati’s 1972 futuristic Giorgetto Giugiaro-designed Boomerang coupe. It was the stand-out lot at the company’s inaugural auction, which coincided with the Arts & Elegance concours event in Chantilly, France.

比如，9月5日，邦瀚斯以330萬歐元（約合370萬美元）的最高估計賣出了一輛現存的獨一無二的1972年版瑪莎拉蒂(Maserati)轎跑車，它是未來主義大師喬治蓋託·喬治亞羅(Giorgetto Giugiaro)設計的，是該拍賣行首場拍賣會的佼佼者。這場拍賣會與法國尚蒂伊的Arts&Elegance汽車展同時舉行。

On the same day, Bonhams also sold a 1929 Bentley 4.5-liter Sports Saloon in its annual sale of collectors’ cars at the Beaulieu National Motor Museum in Hampshire in England. Remarkably, the Bentley, one of 657 made, had been owned by the same English family since 1935 and was in original “barn find” condition, with its engine seized, having been parked in a garage since 1985. It was bought by a British collector for 695,900, more than four times the low estimate.

同一天，在英國漢普郡比尤利國家汽車博物館(Beaulieu National Motor Museum)舉行的收藏車年度拍賣會上，邦瀚斯還賣出一輛1929年產賓利(Bentley)4.5升三廂跑車。此款賓利跑車當初共生產了657輛。這輛車與衆不同的地方在於，自1935年起，它一直爲某英國家庭所有，完全是“原裝”狀態，引擎從未發動過，自1985年起一直停放在車庫內。它最終被一位英國收藏家以69.59萬英鎊收入囊中，是最低估價的四倍多。

“The value is what this is, not what it could be,” said James Knight, group director of Bonhams’s motoring department, who estimated that the Bentley could cost as much as 250,000 to restore. He added that the resultant loss of its once-in-a-lifetime originality could result in a lowering of value. “If it were put back in an auction in restored condition, we’d probably estimate it at 500,000-600,000.”

邦瀚斯汽車部主管詹姆斯·奈特(James Knight)估計，修復這輛賓利要花費25萬英鎊。他說，“古董車的價值在於它本身，而不是它所具備的潛力。”他補充說，修復後車輛將不再是原裝的，價值會下降。“如果修復後再拿出來拍賣，估價會在50至60萬英鎊之間。”

The auction price exemplified the current vogue for cars in “first paint, first trim” condition, that can compete (if the engine works) in concours beauty parades.

拍賣行情表明，當前古董車的賣點在於“原漆原配”，唯有這樣才能在競拍市場上贏得青睞（前提是車輛能夠運轉）。

An even more extreme example is the 1928 4.5-liter Bentley that the dealer William Medcalf discovered 18 months ago scattered in pieces around a house at Kew in West London. The only known survivor of eight such Bentleys made with Victor Broom “Drophead” bodywork, it still had virtually all of its original components, including a working engine with its original Bentley “five-year warranty” lead seals in place and a speedometer with 39,000 miles.

一個更極端的例子是一輛1928年產4.5升賓利，它是交易商威廉·梅德卡夫(William Medcalf)18個月前在倫敦西區基尤(Kew)的一座房子裏發現的，當時它的零件四處散落。這款賓利具有Victor Broom活頂車身，當時僅生產了八輛，這輛是現在所知的唯一留存下來的。它的所有配件幾乎都是原裝的，仍可正常運轉的發動機還保留着賓利“五年保修”的鉛封，里程儀上顯示僅跑了3.9萬英里。

“I’ve never seen a Bentley with its original seals,” said Mr. Medcalf, whose Sussex business specializes in restoring and selling vintage examples of the brand. The “Drophead” has now been reassembled to concours condition. “It’s driveable. You can go to Edinburgh in it,” added Mr. Medcalf, who is quoting an asking price of 1.2 million.

梅德卡夫在薩塞克斯郡開設了一家專門修復和銷售賓利古董車的公司。他說，“我從沒見過帶有原始鉛封的賓利。”現在，活頂車棚也被重新裝上，整輛汽車達到參展水準。梅德卡夫補充說，“這輛車還能開，開着它去愛丁堡都沒問題。”他說報價是120萬英鎊。

As growth slows in the classic car market, has Sotheby’s, who last held auto auctions in 1999, rejoined the party a little too late? Is this really a sector where it can make up ground on its bigger-grossing rival, Christie’s, who stopped selling cars in 2006?

蘇富比上一次舉辦汽車拍賣還是在1999年。如今古董車市場增速減緩，蘇富比在此時迴歸，是不是有點太晚了？競爭對手佳士得的拍賣總額高於蘇富比，前者從2006年起停止了汽車拍賣業務。蘇富比真能憑藉這一領域趕超對手嗎？

“We are actively pursuing cross-selling opportunities between the two organizations,” Tad Smith, president and chief executive of Sotheby’s, said in the company’s first-half earnings conference call on Aug. 7. “We like the collectible car business.”

8月7日，蘇富比總裁兼首席執行官塔德·史密斯(Tad Smith)在上半年收入大會上表示，“我們在積極尋找這兩個組織的交叉銷售機會，我們喜歡古董車業務。”

In other words, wealthy people buy cars, and being wealthy, they might just want to buy other luxury items that Sotheby’s also happen to sell, like art, jewels and wine.

換言之，有錢人喜歡買車，他們也喜歡買其他奢侈品，比如蘇富比碰巧在售的藝術品、珠寶和紅酒。

Moreover, classic cars — unlike art, jewels and wine — isn’t a luxury investment that has attracted much new money from Asia and Russia, and the volatility of demand that goes with it. It’s a business based on American and European men of a certain age and income level who are passionate about buying and driving old cars, albeit rather fewer when economies stall.

此外，不同於後三者，古董車對亞洲和俄羅斯的暴發戶沒有太大吸引力，因此在需求方面不會出現動盪。古董車的消費者主要是美國和歐洲的那些具有一定閱歷和豐厚收入的男人，他們熱衷於購買和駕駛古董汽車，即使在經濟停滯、古董車數量大爲減少的時候。

“Things can’t keep going up for ever, but I have done well out of my collection,” said Julian Smith, 50, a British businessman based in the Channel Islands who was bidding, but not buying, at RM Sotheby’s auction in Battersea.

50歲的英國商人朱利安·史密斯(Julian Smith)住在海峽羣島。他參與了巴特西RM蘇富比拍賣會的出價，但並未購買。他說，“沒有什麼東西能永遠漲個不停，不過我的藏品都還不錯。”

Mr. Smith owns, among other cars, a 1973 Ferrari Daytona and an Alfa Romeo 1900C Pininfarina, which he raced in the Mille Miglia competition in Italy this year. “I was more inclined to add to the collection, as all previous cars had appreciated. However, this was not my prime motivation,” he said as he set off into the night, past the Sotheby’s protest. “I just like them.”

史密斯收藏的古董車包括一輛1973年產法拉利代託納(Daytona)和一輛阿爾法·羅密歐1900C賓尼法利納跑車(Alfa Romeo 1900C Pininfarina)。今年，史密斯還駕駛後者參加了意大利的Mille Miglia賽車比賽。“我以前買的車都升值了，當然想再購置新藏品。不過這並不是我的主要動機，我就是喜歡古董車。”說完，他發動汽車，穿過抗議的人羣，消失在夜色裏。