無人駕駛革命的主要阻力是人
Brilliant technologies transform the magical into the banal.
卓越的科技會把神奇的東西變得平淡無奇。
An idea that seems outlandish to one generation becomes commonplace to the next.
曾經在一代人看來稀奇古怪的想法對於下一代人卻變得稀鬆平常。
So it has been with electricity, space flight and the internet.
電力、太空航行以及互聯網都是如此。
So it is likely to prove with driverless cars.
因此無人駕駛汽車可能也會如此。
The past few weeks have seen a flurry of announcements.
近幾周這個領域接連傳出許多消息。
Singapore has launched the world’s first public trial of a robo-taxi service.
新加坡展開了全球首項無人駕駛出租車的公開測試。
Uber and Volvo announced that they would pioneer an autonomous taxi fleet in Pittsburgh within weeks.
優步(Uber)和沃爾沃(Volvo)宣佈，未來幾周內，它們將率先在匹茲堡推出一支自動駕駛出租車車隊。
Ford said it would build its first mass-market driverless car by 2021.
福特(Ford)表示，將在2021年前製造其首款面向大衆市場的無人駕駛汽車。
To their backers, autonomous cars cannot arrive quickly enough.
對於支持者而言，自動駕駛汽車越快上路越好。
Conventional cars are inefficient, dangerous and dirty.
傳統汽車低效、危險且骯髒。
They sit idle for 95 per cent of their lives, clogging up city streets and car parks.
它們有95%的時間在閒置，堵塞着城市街道和停車場。
When moving, they smash into each other, killing 3,500 people every day around the world.
在行駛中，它們會互相碰撞，全球每天有3500人死於交通事故。
Ninety per cent of accidents are caused by human error.
其中90%的事故是人爲失誤造成的。
Cars pollute the environment, accounting for 45 per cent of oil burnt.
汽車污染環境，佔石油消耗總量的45%。
The widespread adoption of fully autonomous and, still better, electric cars could therefore be a massive boon to mankind.
因此完全自動化且質量更好的電動汽車得到廣泛應用可能是人類的一大幸事。
It could lead to a far more efficient use of resources, save many lives and reduce congestion and pollution.
這可能會帶來資源的更有效利用、挽救很多生命並減少擁堵和污染。
Futurologists envisage small fleets of shareable, connected cars constantly whizzing around our cities picking up passengers on demand.
按照未來學家的構想，一些由可分享的聯網汽車組成的小型車隊將時刻不停地繞着我們的城市飛馳，按照需求搭載乘客。
McKinsey forecasts that 15 per cent of new cars could be fully autonomous by 2030.
麥肯錫(McKinsey)預測，到2030年，15%的新車可能實現完全自動駕駛。
But two obstacles block their widespread adoption.
但有兩個障礙因素阻礙着自動駕駛汽車的普及。
The first remains technological.
第一個仍然是技術上的。
For all the astonishing advances made in recent years, it is phenomenally difficult to replicate humans as sensory beings.
儘管最近幾年這方面技術取得了驚人的進步，但要模仿人類打造具有感覺能力的自動駕駛系統是極其困難的。
How does a car distinguish between a plastic bag blowing across a road and a runaway dog? How does a car nudge its way through a throng of people outside a football stadium?
汽車如何區分一個被風吹過馬路的塑料袋和一條奔跑的狗？汽車如何穿過足球場外擁擠的人羣？
Engineers argue that the genius of self-driving cars is their connectedness.
工程師辯稱，自動駕駛汽車的優勢在於聯網。
When human drivers make a mistake the individual learns from it, says one Silicon Valley pioneer. When a self-driving car makes a mistake then every other car will learn from a mistake once an engineer has fixed it.
當人類駕駛員犯錯時，這個人會從中吸取教訓，一位硅谷先驅表示，當一輛自動駕駛汽車犯錯時，一旦工程師修復了這個問題，其他所有汽車都會相應改進。
It is just a matter of time before our technology surpasses human capacity.
科技超越人類能力只是早晚的事。
But sceptics compare autonomous car technology with Zeno’s dichotomy paradox: every leap will take us halfway to our destination without ever reaching it.
但懷疑者將自動駕駛技術比作芝諾(Zeno)的二分法悖論：每一步跳躍都是向着目的地走出剩餘路程的二分之一，但永遠不可能到達終點。
No matter how hard the technology proves, it may be the easier part of the puzzle.
不管事實證明要攻克技術有多難，它也可能是這個難題中較爲容易的部分。
A stiffer challenge remains the human.
更爲嚴峻的挑戰仍然是人類。
Even when manufacturers and software engineers develop fully autonomous cars in which they have total trust, it will still take many years, if not decades, for them to be freely embraced by governments and consumers.
即便製造商和軟件工程師開發出他們自己完全信任的全自動駕駛汽車，也需要花費多年、甚至幾十年時間才能得到政府和消費者的安心接納。
First, there is the instinctive human resistance to handing over control to a robot, especially given fears of cyber-hacking.
首先，人類天生反對將控制權交給機器人，特別是在擔心黑客攻擊的情況下。
Second, for many drivers cars are an extension of their identity, a mechanical symbol of independence, control and freedom.
其次，對於多數駕駛員而言，汽車是他們身份的延伸，是獨立、控制和自由的機械象徵。
They will not abandon them lightly.
他們不會輕易拋棄汽車。
Third, robots will always be held to far higher safety standards than humans.
第三，針對機器人總是要實施比人類高得多的安全標準。
They will inevitably cause accidents.
它們將不可避免的導致意外。
They will also have to be programmed to make a calculation that could kill their passengers or bystanders to minimise overall loss of life.
它們還必須經過編程做出可能導致乘客或行人死亡的計算，以將總體人員損失降至最低。
This will create a fascinating philosophical sub-school of algorithmic morality.
這將引發一個有趣的關於算法道德的哲學問題。
Many of us are afraid that one reckless act will cause an accident that causes a backlash and shuts down the industry for a decade, says the Silicon Valley engineer. That would be tragic if you could have saved tens of thousands of lives a year.
我們很多人擔心一個冒失的行爲將導致一場事故，進而這個行業會遭到抗議並被封殺10年，那位硅谷工程師表示，如果你原本可以每年挽救數萬人的生命，那麼這種結果將是一場悲劇。
Fourth, the deployment of autonomous vehicles could destroy millions of jobs.
第四，自動駕駛汽車的使用可能會葬送數百萬個就業崗位。
Their rapid introduction is certain to provoke resistance.
這些汽車的快速引入肯定會遭遇抵制。
There are 3.5m professional lorry drivers in the US.
美國有350萬名職業貨車司機。
Fifth, the insurance industry and legal community have to wrap their heads around some tricky liability issues.
第五，保險行業和司法界必須埋頭解決一些複雜的責任問題。
In what circumstances is the owner, car manufacturer or software developer responsible for damage?
在何種情況下，汽車所有者、汽車製造商或軟件開發商要對損害負責？
Some governments, such as those of Singapore, China and the UK, as well as several states in the US are creating permissive regulatory and legal environments.
新加坡、中國和英國等一些國家的政府以及美國幾個州正在創造寬鬆的監管和法律環境。
Regulators can certainly speed adoption by approving designated lanes for autonomous cars, for example, and devising international safety rules and standards.
監管機構無疑可以加速推動自動駕駛汽車的使用，比如說通過批准建設自動駕駛汽車專用道，以及制定國際安全規則與標準。
Conversely, politicians may yet succumb to the pressure of public fears and vested interests and frustrate the roll out of self-driving cars.
相反，政治人士仍可能屈服於公衆擔憂以及既得利益羣體的壓力，阻礙自動駕駛汽車的應用。
Autonomous car visionaries may soon be able to perfect the technology.
自動駕駛汽車的夢想家們可能很快就能完善技術。
But their success may be determined by how good they are — in Stalinist terminology — as engineers of human souls.
但他們能否成功可能取決於他們作爲人類靈魂的工程師（用斯大林主義者的術語來說）有多優秀。
