《穹頂之下》的影響不止於環保

A Chinese documentary critical of the country's dense smog has made waves online, but could augur positive economic benefits.

批評中國濃重霧霾的紀錄片《穹頂之下》在網絡上引發了多輪討論熱潮。不過，該片還可能預示着積極的經濟影響。

The absence of negative ramifications for Under the Dome's producer, Chai Jing, has been widely interpreted as a sign of greater official tolerance for discussion of China's devastating pollution problems. Government censors have permitted the 104-minute film to stream on major internet portals while Chen Jining, environmental protection minister, said on Sunday he had texted Ms Chai to thank her for a film "worthy of admiration". Indeed, it is being compared to Rachel Carson's seminal work 'Silent Spring,' widely regarded as educating a generation of Americans in the 1960s about the importance of protecting the natural environment.

《穹頂之下》製作者柴靜並未因此受到處理，這一現象已被廣泛解讀爲中國官方對污染問題相關討論將持更寬容態度。目前，中國政府的審查機關允許這部時長104分鐘的影片在主要互聯網門戶網站上在線播放。此外，中國環保部長陳吉寧週日曾表示，他已給柴靜發過短信，感謝她製作了一部“值得敬佩”的影片。事實上，這部紀錄片正在被與雷切爾•卡森(Rachel Carson)的開創性著作《寂靜的春天》(Silent Spring)相提並論。後者曾被廣泛視爲在1960年代教育了一代美國人，讓他們認識到了保護自然環境的重要性。

But Zhiwei Zhang, chief China economist at Deutsche Bank, argues that the video could also have macro implications, both in terms of environmental regulation and protection as well as the media sector: “It was reported by Xinhua that the Minister of Environment Protection personally texted Chai Jing to thank her for the effort. This suggests to us that the government will likely take environmental protection more seriously, rebalancing the economy from merely concentrating on an investment-intensive model.

德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)首席中國問題經濟學家張智威稱，該視頻還可能在宏觀層面產生影響，這種影響不僅涉及環境監管和保護方面，還包括媒體部門。他說：“據新華社報道，環保部長曾以個人名義給柴靜發短信，讚揚她的努力。這一點暗示我們，中國政府可能會更嚴肅地對待環保問題，令經濟擺脫投資密集型增長模式。

“Another important implication is the potential benefits of reforms in China. The media sector has been heavily regulated with little space for independent producers like Chai Jing. The popularity of her video shows that there is significant room for productivity growth if the government allows more private investment to enter sectors currently monopolized by the SOEs. As monopolized sectors are typically service oriented, such reform would channel more investment into environmental-friendly business, and help to contain pollution.

“另一個重要影響是，它可能爲中國改革帶來潛在好處。在中國，媒體部門始終受到嚴格監管，柴靜這樣的獨立製作人沒有什麼發揮的空間。她的視頻的熱播，表明政府只要允許更多私人投資進入目前被國企壟斷的部門，就能爲提高生產率創造巨大空間。由於壟斷部門通常是服務業的，這種改革將把更多投資導向對環境有益的企業，從而有助於遏制污染。”

Before getting ahead of ourselves, the steps - particular in the latter scenario - are likely to be small. Ms Jing financed the film herself and it already seems like the authorities are clamping down discussion of the film. As the FT reported earlier, the official Xinhua News Agency has deleted at least two original articles on the documentary from its website, including one about the environment minister's praise for the film.

不過，對此也不要高興得太早了，上述影響的顯現可能會十分緩慢——尤其是在後一個方面。事實上，柴靜這部影片是她自籌資金製作的。此外，似乎當局正在打壓對該片的討論。正如英國《金融時報》此前報道的，中國官方的新華社(Xinhua)已從其網站上刪除了至少兩篇有關該紀錄片的原創報道，其中一篇還曾提到環保部長對該片的讚揚。

Whatever is going on behind the scenes, however, nobody can deny the severity of the pollution issue in China - not least the officials in Beijing this week for the NPC meeting.

不過，不論幕後發生了什麼，沒人能夠否認中國污染問題的嚴重性——本週參加人大會議的北京官員也同樣不能否認這一點。