信任在分享經濟時代的意義大綱

I am on holiday in Bavaria, where, in between the beer and schnitzels, I have been contemplating the nature of trust. A rather old-fashioned guest house happily took our reservation and let us run up a bill of nearly Euro1,000 without ever demanding more than a signature. Not for the Bavarians the pre-authorised credit card. Our room keys were stored in an unlocked cabinet in a quiet corridor, along with the keys of every other guest in the place. It made me wonder why anyone was bothering with keys in the first place. Nevertheless, our belongings were not stolen and we paid our bill when we left. The trust had been justified.

我正在德國巴伐利亞州度假，在享用啤酒和炸肉排的間隙，我思考起信任的本質。一家相當老式的旅館欣然接受了我們的預定，只讓我們簽了個名，就允許我們欠下快1000歐元的房費，看來預授權信用卡在巴伐利亞州毫無用武之地。我們的房間鑰匙與其他所有客人的鑰匙都放在一個櫃子裏，櫃子沒上鎖，置於一條僻靜的走廊裏。我不禁好奇：大家還需要鑰匙幹嘛？儘管如此，我們的隨身物品沒有被盜，我們離開時也付清了房款。這份信任沒有被辜負。

Since Germany is one of the most successful economies in the world and Bavaria is one of the most successful economies in Germany, the thought did cross my mind that trust might be one of the secrets of economic success. Steve Knack, an economist at the World Bank with a long-standing interest in trust, once told me that if one takes a broad enough view of trust, “it would explain basically all the difference between the per capita income of the United States and Somalia”. In other words, without trust — and its vital complement, trustworthiness — there is no prospect of economic development.

鑑於德國是全球最成功的經濟體之一，而巴伐利亞州又是德國經濟最成功的行政區之一，我腦子裏確實冒出了這樣一個想法：信任或許是經濟成功的祕訣之一。世界銀行(World Bank)經濟學家史蒂夫•克納克(Steve Knack)長期思考信任這件事，他曾告訴我如果以足夠廣的角度看待信任，“信任基本能解釋美國與索馬里人均收入的全部差距。”換句話說，沒有信任——以及它的關鍵補充，守信——經濟就不可能發展。

Simple activities become arduous in a low-trust society. How can you be sure you won’t be robbed on the way to the corner store? Hire a bodyguard? (Can you trust him?) The watered-down milk is in a locked fridge. As for something more complex like arranging a mortgage, forget about it.

在一個低信任度的社會裏，簡單的活動都會變得很費力。你怎麼能確定去街角商店的途中不會被搶劫？僱保鏢嗎？（這個保鏢可信嗎？）這就像把兌了水的牛奶放在上鎖的冰箱裏，再怎麼謹防都無濟於事。至於安排抵押貸款這種更復雜的事，乾脆就別想了吧。

Prosperity not only requires trust, it also encourages it. Why bother to steal when you are already comfortable? An example of poverty breeding mistrust comes from Colin Turnbull’s ethnographic study The Mountain People (1972), about the Ik, a displaced tribe ravaged by Ugandan drought in the 1960s. If Turnbull’s account is itself trustworthy (it may not be), in the face of extreme hunger, the Ik had abandoned any pretence at ethical behaviour and would lie, cheat and steal whenever possible. Parents would abandon their own children, and children betray their own parents. Turnbull’s story had a horrific logic. The Ik had no hope of a future, so they saw no need to protect their reputation for fair dealing.

經濟繁榮不僅需要信任，也促進信任。一個人要是生活優渥，幹嘛費那個勁去偷？科林•特恩布爾(Colin Turnbull)在1972年出版了一本關於Ik部落的人種志研究著作——《山民》(The Mountain People)。這本書提供了一個“貧窮滋生懷疑”的例子。20世紀60年代，烏干達旱災重創這個流離失所的部落。如果特恩布爾的描述本身可信（可能並不），面對極端飢餓，Ik人拋棄了一切道德僞裝，只要有機會就撒謊、矇騙和偷竊。父母會拋棄子女，孩子會背叛雙親。特恩布爾的故事有個可怕的邏輯：Ik人對未來不抱希望，因此他們認爲沒必要維護自己公平處事的名聲。

One of the underrated achievements of the modern world has been to develop ways to extend the circle of trust by depersonalising it. Trust used to be a very personal thing: you would trust your friends or friends of friends. But when I withdrew Euro400 from a cash machine, it was not because the bank trusted me but because it could verify that my bank would repay the money. This is a cold corporate miracle.

現代社會一項一直被低估的成就是，想出各種方法，通過去除信任的私人屬性，來擴大信任圈。信任曾是件非常私人的事，人們只會信任自己的朋友或朋友的朋友。但當我從一臺取款機提取400歐元時，並不是因爲這家銀行信任我，而是因爲它可以證實我的銀行會償還這筆錢。這是個冰冷的企業奇蹟。

Over the past few years, people have been falling in love with a hybrid model that allows a personal reputation to work even between strangers. One example is Airbnb, which lets people stay in the homes of complete strangers, a considerable exercise of trust on both sides. We successfully used it on another stop in our Bavarian holiday. Airbnb makes personal connections but uses online reviews to keep people honest: after our stay, we reviewed our host and he reviewed us.

過去幾年，人們喜愛上了一種混合模式，它讓個人信譽在陌生人之間也能夠發揮作用。一個例子就是Airbnb，它讓人們住進陌生人家中，這需要房東和房客雙方都付出極大的信任。我們在巴伐利亞度假時，順利地用Airbnb在另一處落腳點訂到了房間。Airbnb上的聯繫是私人之間的，但它用在線點評來讓人守信——退房後我們點評了房東，他也點評了我們。

To enthusiasts for “collaborative consumption”, the next step is to develop systems that allow users to take the reputation they have built up as a generous and conscientious Airbnb host, and to use it to convey that they are also a prompt and careful Lyft driver or a reliable and honest eBay seller.

在“協同消費”的愛好者看來，下一步就是開發各種系統，讓用戶能用上他們在當Airbnb房東時建立起來的大方、負責等信譽，並用這些信譽來表明，他們同樣是一位守時、細心的Lyft司機，或一位可靠、誠實的eBay賣家。

But designing such a system is problematic. Science fiction writer Cory Doctorow posited a purely reputational currency in his novel Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom (2003). Such currencies, he says, are easily manipulated by con artists and extortionists. We’re misunderstanding the reason that eBay and Airbnb work, says Doctorow. It’s not because of the brilliance of the online reputation system but “because most people aren’t crooks”, an idea any Bavarian hotelier would understand.

但設計這樣一個系統會帶來問題。科幻作家科裏•多克託羅(Cory Doctorow)在2003年出版的小說《魔法王國受難記》(Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom)中，假設了一種純粹的信譽貨幣。按照他的說法，這種貨幣很容易被騙子和敲詐者操縱。多克託羅說，我們誤解了eBay和Airbnb的模式行得通的原因。它們之所以行得通，不是因爲互聯網信譽系統的偉大，而是“因爲大多數人都不是騙子”——巴伐利亞所有旅館老闆都明白這點。

Personalised trust has never been fairly distributed. When Harvard Business School researchers Benjamin Edelman, Michael Luca and Dan Svirsky conducted field experiments on Airbnb, they found that both hosts and guests were discriminating against racial minorities. Other researchers have found evidence of discrimination in places from Craigslist to carpools. New online tools are giving us the ability to treat faraway strangers as though they were neighbours — and we do, in good ways and in bad.

私人屬性的信任從來不是公平分配的。當哈佛商學院(Harvard Business School)研究員本傑明•埃德爾曼( Benjamin Edelman)、邁克爾•盧卡(Michael Luca)和丹•斯維爾斯基(Dan Svirsky)在Airbnb上做田野實驗時，他們發現房東和房客都歧視少數族羣。其他研究人員已找到證據證明許多地方都存在歧視——從Craigslist到carpools。新的網絡工具讓我們能像招待自己的鄰居那樣招待遠方的陌生人，而我們確實做到了——有好處也有壞處。

Trust is as unfairly granted in Bavaria as anywhere else. While browsing for shades in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, I warned my young son not to play with the merchandise: a sign forbade children to touch the sunglasses.

在巴伐利亞，信任的分配像在其他任何地方一樣不公平。在加爾米施-帕滕基興(Garmisch-Partenkirchen)逛墨鏡店時，我警告小兒子不要去玩貨架上的商品，店裏有個標誌寫着禁止兒童觸碰太陽鏡。

The shopkeeper bustled over and reassured me that the rule did not apply to my son. “It’s for the Arab kids,” she told me, beaming. “They just drop the sunglasses on the floor.”

店主匆匆過來告訴我不用擔心，說這條規定並不適用於我兒子。她笑容滿面地對我說：“這是針對阿拉伯小孩的。他們總是把太陽鏡丟到地上。”

Ah. My son is adorably blond but he is as capable of snapping a pair of designer sunglasses as any other four-year-old. Trust is sometimes given to people who do not deserve it. And it is often withheld from people who do.

這樣啊。我兒子是個可愛的金髮小男孩，但他像所有四歲小孩一樣有本事弄壞一副名牌太陽鏡。人們有時會信任不值得信任的人，又往往不信任值得信任的人。