民調顯示奧巴馬繼續保持微弱領先優勢大綱

President Barack Obama has managed to retain a narrow lead in his race for re-election despite a spate of bad economic news and surging GOP optimism about Mitt Romney's prospects, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

《華爾街日報》和美國全國廣播公司(NBC News)最新民調顯示，儘管近期經濟方面不利消息頻傳，儘管美國共和黨人對羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)的選戰前景越來越樂觀，但美國總統奧巴馬(Barack Obama)仍在謀求連任的競選中保持了微弱的領先優勢。

The president outpolls Mr. Romney, his presumed Republican rival, 47% to 44%, a lead within the survey's margin of error and similar to the advantage he enjoyed a month ago. Mr. Obama's lead is wider in swing states, where the campaigns have battled most intensely.
民調顯示，奧巴馬的支持率爲47%，超過將成爲其對手的共和黨候選人羅姆尼44%的支持率。奧巴馬的這個領先優勢在民調的誤差範圍內，與他一個月前享有的優勢差不多。奧巴馬的領先優勢在"搖擺州"較大，那些州也是選戰最激烈的地方。

The poll highlights challenges facing both candidates. While Mr. Obama retains a durable base of support, his standing among white, working-class voters, which was low to start with, continues to erode. Interest in the campaign isn't nearly as intense as it was four years ago among young people and Latinos, who were important to Mr. Obama's victory in 2008.
這次民調凸顯出了兩位候選人各自面臨的挑戰。雖然奧巴馬仍擁有牢固的支持基礎，但他在白人工薪階層選民中的聲望持續下降，而且他在這些選民中的聲望一開始就不高。年輕人和拉美裔選民對奧巴馬競選的興趣遠不及四年前那麼濃厚，而這些人的支持對奧巴馬2008年成功當選美國總統十分重要。

At the same time, more people viewed Mr. Romney unfavorably than favorably by a 6-point margin, with nearly one-quarter of those polled viewing him "very negatively," twice the level found in December. Mr. Romney's business background, which he has made a central element of his candidacy, is a draw for many, the poll found. But it is viewed negatively by even more people.
與此同時，不喜歡羅姆尼的人比喜歡他的人多了六個百分點，近四分之一的被調查者對他持非常負面的看法，這一比例是去年12月的兩倍。羅姆尼將自己的商業背景作爲選戰的重要賣點，民調顯示，這一點吸引了很多人，但同時有更多人將其視爲負面因素。

Overall, the survey presents the presidential race as both tight and stable. "It looks like a dead heat on a merry-go-round," said Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who conducts the Journal survey with Republican Bill McInturff. "There is the appearance of motion, but the horses' positions haven't changed."
民調顯示，這次總統競選整體而言格局穩定且勢均力敵。美國民主黨民調專家哈特(Peter Hart)說，兩個人難分勝負，這就好像是坐旋轉木馬一樣，外表看是在動，但木馬的位置並沒有改變。這次民調由哈特與共和黨人麥金塔夫(Bill McInturff)共同完成。

Mr. Obama's advantage is more pronounced in 12 battleground states which, taken as a group, favor him 50% to 42%. His larger lead in those states, which include Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia, could reflect the impact of negative ads aired by his campaign that have criticized Mr. Romney's record as a businessman and portrayed him as out of touch with middle-class voters.
奧巴馬在12個"搖擺州"的優勢更爲明顯。若把這些州當作一個整體，它們與美國其它州對奧巴馬的支持率分別是50%和42%。奧巴馬在這些州（包括內華達、科羅拉多、賓夕法尼亞和弗吉尼亞等）的較大領先幅度或許可反映出他打出的負面競選廣告所產生的影響。這些廣告批評羅姆尼作爲生意人的過往經歷，將羅姆尼描繪成一個與中產階級選民脫節的人。

"There are two campaigns─the one being fought out in the press, and one in swing states," said Mr. McInturff. "We're seeing some indications that the advertising could be having an impact."
麥金塔夫說，現在出現了兩個競選，一個是在媒體上進行的，一個是在"搖擺州"進行的，我們發現有一些跡象顯示，競選廣告可能有不小影響。

The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted June 20-24, after a month that seemed to offer much to buoy Mr. Romney. His fundraising was strong, the May jobs report was weak, and Mr. Obama was widely criticized for saying the private sector was "doing fine." Republican confidence grew after an effort by labor unions and their Democratic allies to recall Wisconsin's Republican governor failed.
這次民調在6月20日至24日期間採訪了1,000名成年人，而此前一個月似乎傳出了很多可提振羅姆尼選情的消息。例如，他在競選籌款方面的表現十分強勁，以及5月份美國就業報告疲弱，奧巴馬因說私營部門"表現還行"而遭到普遍批評。在工會及其民主黨盟友罷免威斯康星州共和黨籍州長的努力失敗後，共和黨的信心得到增強。