養老金陰謀:你給退休存的錢可能太多了大綱

Are you saving too much for retirement? Can you believe I'm even asking that question?
你的養老金是不是存得太多了？或者你認爲這個問題本身就很無厘頭？

Full disclosure: The folks at Morningstar Investment Management, specifically head of retirement research David Blanchett, asked it first. He found that for many people the answer is yes -- by an average of 20%. That, as Blanchett acknowledges, is a big deal. "Retirement is, by and large, the most expensive purchase of anyone's lifetime," he says. "For people who think they need $1 million but find they only need $800,000, it is a big difference."
而事實是這樣的：晨星投資管理公司（Morningstar Investment Management）退休研究部主管大衛?布蘭切特率先提出了這個問題，而且他發現， 20%左右的人對這個問題的回答是肯定的。布蘭切特認爲情況有些嚴重，他說：“養老儲蓄金毫無疑問是大多數人人生最大的一筆投入。但想象和現實差距很大，人們以爲自己需要存上100萬美元來養老，實際上只要80萬就夠了。”

So how do you figure out whether it applies to you? You have to take a step back and look at both the retirement saving goals you've set for yourself and your current spending.
那麼，這種情況是否也出現在你身上？大家最好還是重新審視一下自己的養老儲蓄計劃，以及目前的開銷。

There has long been a rule of thumb that says you should plan to replace 70% to 80% of your pre-retirement income (that is, your final annual salary before you retire) in retirement -- and that that number should be adjusted upward, with inflation, each year. In real life, data from the Survey of Consumer Finances shows, spending, and therefore the amount you'll need, isn't that linear.
長期以來，根據概測法，人們應該存下退休前收入（即退休前的最終年收入）的70%到80%作爲養老金。而且，算上通貨膨脹的話，這個比例還應該逐年上調。但美國消費者金融調查報告（Survey of Consumer Finances）的數據顯示，人們的實際開銷並不會因爲通脹的影響而上漲。

People in their mid-40s to 50s spend the most. (As someone right in the middle of that range with one child in college and another starting in 18 months, I can totally see why that's the case.) From there, spending starts to decline as -- typically -- the kids leave the nest, you downsize, retire the mortgage (although that's getting less common), ditch the extra car, etc., etc., until medical needs drive expenses up again toward the end of life. Bottom line, the amount people need to replace varies from under 54% of pre-retirement income to over 87%.
通常，四十五至五十歲的人羣開銷最大。（這個年齡段的人通常要負擔一個上大學的孩子，同時撫養一個一兩歲的小傢伙。）但之後，開支就逐漸減少了，尤其是等到孩子們都成年以後，父母們就會縮減開銷，取消房貸抵押（儘管這種情況越來越少），處理掉多餘的汽車。這種狀態一直持續到晚年，直到醫療和交通方面的開銷出現增長。根據年齡段的不同，人們退休後的年均最低花費在退休前收入中的佔比從低於54%到超過87%不等。

For average earners, whose pre-retirement income is roughly $56,000, this is welcome news, says Michael Falcon, Head of Retirement at JP Morgan Asset Management. Their annual spending in retirement seems not to be escalating as previously thought from around $43,000 at age 65 to nearly $80,000 at age 90 (due to inflation); instead, it climbs only to around $50,000. Social Security can cover a significant chunk of that.
摩根大通資產管理公司（JP Morgan Asset Management）退休部的主管邁克爾?法爾孔說，這對於年收入約5.6萬美元的中等收入人羣是個鼓舞人心的消息：這部分人羣退休後的年度開支並沒有像當初預料的那樣，從65歲時所需的4.3萬美元增長到90歲時的8萬美元（受通脹影響），而是僅僅止步於5萬美元左右。其中，社保資金彌補了相當大的缺口。But higher earners -- particularly those who earn more than the median income but below what the country considers wealthy -- should be cautious before taking their feet off the gas. Their spending actually declines in retirement -- but that still doesn't mean they'll have saved enough to cover it.
但收入更高的人羣，尤其是高於平均水平，但稱不上富豪的那些人，在決定養老儲蓄時不能掉以輕心。他們退休後的開支當然會較之退休前減少，但這並不意味着他們的儲蓄足以維持這些開支。

"Having to save more is an affluent problem," Falcon says. And here's why: "If I make $200,000 to $300,000 a year, I'm probably spending a lower percentage of my gross income pre-retirement because of saving and taxes," Falcon says. "I may be spending only 50% of my gross salary." Still, because of the higher take-home, Social Security will not replace the same percentage of pre-retirement income. And taxes -- including those on withdrawals from retirement accounts -- will take a bigger bite.
法爾孔說：“多攢錢是‘富人’不得不面對的問題。”他的解釋是：“如果我一年能掙20萬到30萬美元，那麼在退休前，我的開銷可能是收入中較小的一部分，因爲我得存錢，還得交稅。我大概只會花掉總收入的50%。”而由於扣除各種費用後的實際收入更高，社會保險所能承擔的退休後開支佔退休前收入的比例也無法達到與較低收入人羣相同的比例。而稅款也是很大一筆開支，包括從退休賬戶取款需要繳納的稅款。

Of course it pays to figure out if indeed you're over-saving. That would free you up to use the money in the present, whether you put it toward defraying student loan debt for your kids or enjoying yourselves. Blanchett recommends a personal touch. "Nothing can substitute for spending five hours with a CFP," he says. "But the percent of the population that will do that ... is a definite minority." For people who are not going to engage, utilizing the online tools and retirement calculators available is a step in the right direction.
當然，確定自己是否過度儲蓄是明智之舉。這樣的話，你就不會在當下急需開支時瞻前顧後。比如，你可以把一部分儲蓄用來替孩子還掉助學貸款，也可以把它用於休閒娛樂。布蘭切特給出了一條私人建議：“和金融理財師交流5小時絕對有必要。遺憾的是，很少有人這麼做。”如果你不想聘請理財師，利用網絡工具和退休計算器也不失爲明智的做法。

And remember, one thing this paper shows is that this is not a one-and-done experience. Your spending is not static. Neither is your health, earning potential, or -- even further from your control -- the sequence of your investment returns. Even if you've set retirement goals and are working toward them, revisiting the process every couple of years will pay off. Not just in how you're able to live in the long run, but in how you're able to live today.
另外，請記住，這篇文章要說明的道理之一是，制定退休儲蓄計劃不是一勞永逸的事。你的花銷並不是一成不變，同樣，你的健康狀況、賺錢能力以及你的投資回報順序也不是一成不變的，未來它們甚至會失去控制。即使你已設定了退休目標，而且正在爲之奮鬥，每隔幾年重新評估一下也是相當重要的。這樣做不僅有益於未來的生活，也有助於過好當前的生活。