阿里巴巴上市對IPO市場是福還是禍

Chinese Internet behemoth Alibaba Group is expected to go public on August 8, owing to the traditional Chinese belief that the number 88 symbolizes good fortune. But don’t expect anyone else to try getting in on the ’88′ action.

中國互聯網巨頭阿里巴巴集團（Alibaba Group）預計於8月8日上市（最新消息稱，阿里上市可能會推遲到9月份——編注），因爲中國傳統認爲數字88代表發財。不過，不會再有別的公司選擇在這一天上市。

Other companies with IPOs in the pipeline are trying to steer far clear of the Alibaba offering, even if that means pushing their own listings until after Labor Day. Some are worried that Alibaba literally will suck up too many investment dollars, given that bankers expect it to raise around half of the entire 2014 IPO volume. Others are avoiding Alibaba from a marketing perspective, since media organizations will be laser-focused on the larger offering. If a $200 million IPO with a 20% pop falls on August 8, it won’t make a sound.

其它正準備進行首次公開發行（IPO）的公司都希望儘量離阿里巴巴的上市日期遠一點，即使這意味着它們得在美國勞動節（九月的第一個星期一——譯註）之後上市。有些公司擔心阿里巴巴會吸走太多投資資金，銀行家們預計，阿里巴巴獲得的投資資金將佔到2014年IPO總額的一半左右。另一些公司刻意避開阿里巴巴則是出於營銷方面的考慮，因爲媒體屆時肯定會聚焦報道阿里巴巴的上市。阿里上市當日，如果有估值2億美元的公司進行IPO轉讓20％股份，根本不會有人注意。

For reference, think back to when Facebook FB 0.74% went public on May 18, 2012. That also was a Friday, but not a single other company priced an IPO that week.

大家不妨回想下Facebook公司2012年5月18日上市時的情形。當天也是個週五，但整個那一週都沒有別的公司進行IPO。

What should be very interesting to see, however, is what comes after 88.

不過，真正有意思的是看8月8日之後會發生什麼事情。

There is a school of thought that many companies are waiting for Alibaba to price before making their next move. Particularly other Chinese Internet companies looking for price guidance on their own IPO or M&A aspirations. Other companies simply want Alibaba out of the way before pushing forward, but few will set up road shows for the following week — just in case Alibaba somehow doesn’t meet its mystical target.

有一種看法認爲，許多公司都在等着阿里巴巴確定股價，然後再決定下一步動作。特別是其它中國互聯網公司，它們期望藉此爲自身的IPO或併購提供價格指引。其他公司則單純地希望等阿里巴巴上市後再說，但很少有公司會把路演放在阿里上市之後的那一週，目的也是爲了防止萬一阿里巴巴沒能達到它祕而不宣的籌資目標。

Facebook unfortunately is not a good guide here, because that listing was so bungled by NASDAQ that the entire IPO market virtually ground to a halt (only six companies priced in the subsequent six weeks). Alibaba and NYSE have hopefully prepared well for the trading onslaught, so that Alibaba can be a domino rather than a boulder.

不幸的是，Facebook在這方面並不是個好榜樣，因爲它的上市完全被納斯達克（NASDAQ）搞砸了，整個IPO市場都幾乎因此幾乎陷入了停頓（此後6週中，只有六家公司進行了IPO）。但願阿里巴巴和紐約證交所（NYSE）都爲交易衝刺做好了準備，這樣的話，阿里巴巴就將是帶動更多IPO的多米諾骨牌，而不是堵塞其它公司上市之路的巨石。