科技企業應創造多於破壞

Nicolas Brusson, the founder of BlaBlaCar, the French ride-sharing start-up that in June raised $100m to expand across Europe, got the biggest laugh of the week at the DLD technology conference in Munich. Asked about operating in a “single market” with 28 sets of laws and regulations, he replied: “When you start from France, everything looks simple.”

在慕尼黑DLD科技大會週上，BlaBlaCar的創始人尼古拉•布呂鬆(Nicolas Brusson)令觀衆發出了最開心的笑聲。去年6月，這家法國拼車初創公司曾融資1億美元。當被問到如何在一個有着28套法律法規的“單一市場”運作時，尼古拉•布呂鬆答道：“只要你從法國開始，萬事看上去都很簡單。”

DLD is where tech entrepreneurs and venture capitalists from the US and Europe gather to discuss their industry before they shuttle to Davos for the World Economic Forum. In Munich, they chew over the contrasts between the two continents: risk-taking versus safety nets, the free market versus regulations, start-ups versus incumbents.

來自歐美的科技企業家和風險投資家在前往達沃斯參加世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)之前，先聚集到DLD大會圍繞科技產業展開了探討。在慕尼黑，他們詳細討論了歐美兩大洲之間的差異，話題包括風險承擔與安全網絡、自由市場與監管條規、初創公司與現有企業等。

The notable thing about this year’s event, though, was that this no longer felt like the biggest issue. Instead of the main question being whether Europe can get its act together to take on Silicon Valley, it was whether technological progress will swallow us all, no matter where we live and work.

不過，今年大會上最引人注目的事，就是高科技似乎不再是最重要的議題。今年的主題不再是歐洲能否組織起來挑戰硅谷，而是技術進步是否會吞噬我們所有人，無論我們在哪裏生活、工作。

Travis Kalanick, the combative founder of the cab-hailing network Uber, embodied the shift. He turned up in Munich with an emollient speech, carefully crafted by David Plouffe, the former campaign strategist for US President Barack Obama, who heads strategy at Uber. The new Uber pitch is all about co-operation, not confrontation.

在打車應用優步(Uber)鬥志旺盛的創始人特拉維斯•卡蘭尼克(Travis Kalanick)的身上，就體現出了這種轉變。他現身慕尼黑髮表了一個平和的演講，演講稿由大衛•普勞夫(David Plouffe)精心擬定。普勞夫曾任美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)的競選首席策略師，現在負責替優步管理經營策略。優步新的推銷主題是合作，而不是對抗。

Mr Kalanick’s claim that Uber can simultaneously create jobs, raise local taxes, save citizens from needing to own cars and reduce carbon emissions was intended not only for European cities. He has to convince a global audience that his platform is progress.

卡蘭尼克稱，優步可以在創造就業機會的同時，增加當地稅收，降低城市居民的購車需求，減少二氧化碳排放，他的發言並不僅針對歐洲城市。他必須說服全球觀衆相信，他的平臺帶來的是進步。

The Uber question is part of a bigger one facing the global economy. More and more people work for virtual platforms instead of companies; work is auctioned to pools of contractors; median wages stagnate while returns on capital rise; some duties of doctors and lawyers may soon be done by machines. Is this what we want?

優步的問題是全球經濟面臨的一個更大問題的一部分。越來越多的人效力於虛擬平臺而不是企業；工作任務通過競拍方式分給承包商；工資中位數停滯不前，而資本回報率卻在上升；機器或許很快就能分擔醫生和律師的部分職責。這就是我們想要的嗎？

One notable absentee from Munich was the word “disruption”, which has become a mantra of the tech industry in recent years. Venture capitalists have preached that every industry is ripe for disruption of the kind Uber brings to cabs and Amazon brings to retailing.

此次慕尼黑DLD大會最值得注意的是“破壞”一詞的缺席，近幾年這個詞已成爲科技產業的口頭禪。風險資本家不斷鼓吹各個行業已做好準備，能承受類似優步對出租車行業、亞馬遜(Amazon)對零售業造成的破壞。

It has just occurred to them that promising to arrive in town and cause trouble is not the best way to make yourself popular, even if you genuinely believe that creative destruction is good for consumers, and ultimately for society as a whole. Disruption, after all, disrupts people’s lives.

因爲他們忽然發現，承諾要跑到鎮上製造麻煩並不是令自己受歡迎的最佳方式，哪怕你真的相信這種創造性破壞對消費者有利，且最終會造福整個社會。歸根到底，“破壞”所破壞的是人們的生活。

As workers, people in advanced industrial economies have not gained a lot from free trade and technological progress. As consumers, they have: Amazon has made buying things cheaper and easier. And in developing economies, workers have seen their wages rise sharply. But the median American and western European employee, no. Nor is the outlook very reassuring for employees in the upper half of the income scale. Artificial intelligence, on which many start-ups are working, could allow machines to do at least some of the work of professionals such as doctors and accountants.

在發達工業經濟體，作爲工人，人們並未從自由貿易和技術進步獲得大量利益。但作爲消費者，人們得到了很多：亞馬遜讓商品變得更便宜，購物變得更容易。另外，在發展中經濟體，工人們眼看着自己的工資大幅上漲。但美國和西歐的中等員工卻沒享受這一好處。中上等收入員工的工作前景也不大牢靠。許多初創公司正在研究的人工智能，至少可以機器承擔醫生、會計等專業人員的部分工作。

“We ain’t seen nothing yet. The amount of turbulence will not decrease. It will go like that,” Andrew McAfee, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist and co-author of The Second Machine Age, told the DLD audience, pointing at the ceiling.

“好戲還在後頭。這股湍流不會減弱，它將一路衝到那兒去。”安德魯•麥卡菲(Andrew McAfee)指着天花板對DLD大會的觀衆說。麥卡菲是麻省理工學院(MIT)經濟學家，與人合著有《第二次機器革命》(The Second Machine Age)。

There is still a gap between US and European attitudes to risk-taking, with all that it implies. One striking moment at DLD was when Axelle Lemaire, the French minister for digital affairs, praised the start-up culture while carefully avoiding admitting that it could mean failure and people being laid off.

美國和歐洲的冒險態度還存在一定差距，這一點從所有方面都體現出來。DLD大會上引人注目的時刻之一，是法國數字事務國務大臣阿克塞勒•勒邁爾(Axelle Lemaire)一面稱讚創業文化，一面小心地避而不談它可能意味着失敗以及裁員。

But the gap is narrower than it was. The start-up generation in cities such as Stockholm and Berlin has more in common culturally with those in Silicon Valley than with conservative politicians, and many including Mr Brusson of BlaBlaCar have worked there. Europe is spawning its own disrupters.

但兩地間的差距正漸漸縮小。在文化共同性上，斯德哥爾摩和柏林等城市的創業一代更接近硅谷的創業者，而不是保守派政客，而且包括BlaBlaCar的布呂鬆在內，許多創業者都曾在這些城市工作過。歐洲正大量製造自己的“破壞者”。

I share the view of Ben Horowitz, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz, the Silicon Valley venture capital fund, that technological change is “largely inevitable and impossible to stop”. Short of closing borders and halting communications, like North Korea, an economy cannot turn its back on progress.

我贊同硅谷風險投資公司Andreessen Horowitz聯合創始人本•霍羅威茨(Ben Horowitz)的觀點：技術變革“基本不可避免，而且不可能停止”。除非像朝鮮那樣封閉邊境，終止交流，否則一個經濟體的進步是不可能阻擋的。

Still, as Uber is realising, nor can tech companies set up a service platform on which workers and customers interact, bank their money and take no responsibility for the result. An Uber driver who attacks a passenger is not contractually its employee, but the distinction does not matter much to the victim.

然而，正如優步逐漸意識到的那樣，科技公司建立不起一個服務平臺，能讓工人和消費者在上面互動、存錢，且不必爲結果承擔任何責任。從法律合同上講，襲擊乘客的優步司機不是優步的員工，但這一點對受害者來說沒多大分別。

Some companies are already taking a gentler approach. One example is Etsy, an online marketplace for craft goods such as pottery and fashion, which is a B Corporation under US law. That means it tries to do good for society as well as reward shareholders.

一些公司已經採取了較爲溫和的做法。比如Etsy，一個交易陶器和時裝等手工製品的在線集市，根據美國法律它屬於公益型企業(B Corporation)。這意味着，Etsy除了回報股東，還要努力造福社會。

“If we have a world in which there are drones flying around delivering packages, but no one is talking to each other, that is really sad,” Chad Dickerson, Etsy’s chief executive, said in Munich. That is a change from tech companies for which drones replacing drivers is the next frontier of efficiency.

Etsy的首席執行官查德•迪克森(Chad Dickerson)在慕尼黑說：“如果在我們的世界，雖有無人機四處投遞包裹，可人與人之間不再交談，那真是可悲極了。”一些高科技公司原本認爲，無人機取代司機是下一個提高效率的技術前沿，現在它們的態度發生了變化。

Silicon Valley and the global cities in which start-ups thrive are full of clever people. Their brainpower could be applied to augmenting jobs rather than eliminating them, or to countering the long stagnation of wages. Now that really would be disruptive.

硅谷，以及所有初創企業發達的城市充滿了聰明人。他們的智力可用於增加就業機會，而不是減少機會，或者可用於緩解薪資長期停滯的局面，因爲這纔是真正具有破壞性的。