科學家警告 海洋生態破壞規模空前

A team of scientists, in a groundbreaking analysis of data from hundreds of sources, has concluded that humans are on the verge of committing unprecedented damage to the oceans and the animals living in them.

在對數百個來源的數據進行了開創性的分析之後，一個科學家團隊得出結論：人類處在對海洋及海洋動物造成前所未有的大破壞的邊緣。

“We may be sitting on a precipice of a major extinction event,” said Douglas J. McCauley, an ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a co-author of the new research, which was published on Thursday in the journal Science.

“我們可能就坐在重大滅絕事件的懸崖上，”加州大學聖巴巴拉分校生態學家道格拉斯·J·麥考利(Douglas J. McCauley)說，他是《科學》雜誌本週四發表的一項新研究的合著者。

But there is still time to avert catastrophe, Dr. McCauley and his colleagues also found. Compared with the continents, the oceans are mostly intact, still wild enough to bounce back to ecological health.

但我們仍有時間來避免災難，麥考利博士和同事還發現。與陸地相比，海洋絕大部分依然保持完整，仍然有足夠旺盛的生命力，可以恢復健康的生態。

“We’re lucky in many ways,” said Malin L. Pinsky, a marine biologist at Rutgers University and a co-author of the new report. “The impacts are accelerating, but they’re not so bad we can’t reverse them.”

“從很多方面來說，我們都很幸運，”該報告的合著者、羅格斯大學(Rutgers University)的海洋生物學家馬林·L·平斯基(Malin L. Pinsky)說。“海洋受影響的速度正在加快，但狀況沒有糟糕到無法扭轉的地步。”

Scientific assessments of the ocean’s health are dogged by uncertainty: It’s much harder for researchers to judge the well-being of a species living underwater, over thousands of miles, than to track the health of a species on land. And changes that scientists observe in particular ocean ecosystems may not reflect trends across the planet.

對海洋健康狀況進行的科學評估存在着不確定性：與追蹤陸上物種的健康狀況相比，研究人員很難判斷蹤跡延伸萬里的水下物種的狀況。科學家們觀察到的某一海洋生態系統的具體變化，可能無法反映地球的整體發展趨勢。

Dr. Pinsky, Dr. McCauley and their colleagues sought a clearer picture of the oceans’ health by pulling together data from an enormous range of sources, from discoveries in the fossil record to statistics on modern container shipping, fish catches and seabed mining. While many of the findings already existed, they had never been juxtaposed in such a way.

平斯基博士、麥考利博士和同事們努力爲海洋的健康狀況繪製出了一幅更清晰的圖像，他們對海量數據進行了彙總，從化石記錄的發現，到現代集裝箱航運、漁獲量和海底採礦的統計數據，這些數據的來源多種多樣。雖然很多研究結果已經存在，但之前從未以這樣的方式進行過彙總分析。

A number of experts said the result is a remarkable synthesis, along with a nuanced and hopeful prognosis.

一些專家表示，綜合分析得出了一個非凡的結論，以及一個微妙的、讓人充滿希望的預測。

“I see this as a call for action to close the gap between conservation on land and in the sea,” said Loren McClenachan of Colby College, who was not involved in the study.

“我認爲這是一個呼籲，敦促大家行動起來，把海洋保護行動提升到陸地的水平，”科爾比學院(Colby College)洛倫·麥克拉里琴(Loren McClenachan)說，他沒有參與這項研究。

There are clear signs already that humans are harming the oceans to a remarkable degree, the scientists found. Some ocean species are certainly overharvested, but even greater damage results from large-scale habitat loss, which is likely to accelerate as technology advances, the scientists reported.

科學家們發現，已經有明顯的跡象表明，人類對海洋的損害程度非常巨大。一些海洋物種肯定遭到了過度捕撈，但更大的損害是物種棲息地的大規模喪失，這種情況可能會隨着技術的進步而加速，科學家表示。

Coral reefs, for example, have declined by 40 percent worldwide, partly as a result of climate-change-driven warming.

例如，全球的珊瑚礁已經減少40%，部分原因是氣候變化導致的溫度升高。

Some fish are migrating to cooler waters already. Black sea bass, once most common off the coast of Virginia, have moved up to New Jersey. Less fortunate species may not be able to find new ranges. At the same time, carbon emissions are altering the chemistry of seawater, making it more acidic.

有些魚類已經遷徙到了較冷的水域。曾經在弗吉尼亞州海岸十分常見的黑鱸魚，如今已經北遷至新澤西。而沒有那麼幸運的物種，就未必能找到新的棲息地了。與此同時，碳排放正在改變海水的化學成分，讓它變得更具酸性。

“If you cranked up the aquarium heater and dumped some acid in the water, your fish would not be very happy,” Dr. Pinsky said. “In effect, that’s what we’re doing to the oceans.”

“如果你把水族箱裏的加熱器開高一些，倒一些酸性物質到水裏，你的魚可能會出問題，”平斯基博士說。“實際上，這就是我們正在對海洋做的事情。”

Fragile ecosystems like mangroves are being replaced by fish farms, which are projected to provide most of the fish we consume within 20 years. Bottom trawlers scraping large nets across the sea floor have already affected 20 million square miles of ocean, turning parts of the continental shelf to rubble. Whales may no longer be widely hunted, the analysis noted, but they are now colliding in greater numbers with rising numbers of container ships.

像紅樹林這種脆弱的生態系統，正在被養殖場所取代，預計不到20年，我們消耗的大部分魚類就將來自這些養殖場。底拖網漁船拖着橫掃海底的大網，駛過了2000萬平方英里的海域，把部分大陸架夷爲平地。鯨可能不會再遭受廣泛獵殺，但這份報告指出，隨着集裝箱船隻的數量與日俱增，鯨與船隻發生碰撞的事件也增多了。

Mining operations, too, are poised to transform the ocean. Contracts for seabed mining now encompass 460,000 square miles underwater, the researchers found, up from zero in 2000. Seabed mining has the potential to tear up unique ecosystems and introduce pollution into the deep sea.

採礦作業也會改變海洋。研究人員發現，目前的海底礦業合同覆蓋了水下46萬平方英里的地方，而2000年時這個數字爲零。海底採礦可能會破壞獨特的生態系統，並將污染帶入深海。

The oceans are so vast that its ecosystems may seem impervious to change. But Dr. McClenachan warned that the fossil record shows that global disasters have wrecked the seas before. “Marine species are not immune to extinction on a large scale,” she said.

海洋如此浩瀚，這些變化看上去好似不會對它的生態系統造成衝擊。但麥克拉里琴博士警告說，化石記錄表明，之前曾經有全球災害對海洋造成過破壞。“海洋物種也無法在大規模滅絕中倖免，”她說。

Until now, the seas largely have been spared the carnage visited on terrestrial species, the new analysis also found.

這項研究還發現，陸地上物種大量滅絕的狀況，迄今基本上還沒有在海洋中出現過。

The fossil record indicates that a number of large animal species became extinct as humans arrived on continents and islands. For example, the moa, a giant bird that once lived on New Zealand, was wiped out by arriving Polynesians in the 1300s, probably in just a century.

化石記錄表明，隨着人類到達大陸和島嶼，很多大型動物滅絕了。例如曾經生活在新西蘭的恐鳥，14世紀波利尼西亞人到達那裏後，這種巨鳥可能在短短的一個世紀內就滅絕了。

But it was only after 1800, with the Industrial Revolution, that extinctions on land really took off.

但直到1800年後，隨着工業革命的發生，陸地物種的滅絕才真正加快了速度。

Humans began to alter the habitat that wildlife depended on, wiping out forests for timber, plowing under prairie for farmland, and laying down roads and railroads across continents.

在各個大陸上，人類開始改變野生動物賴以生存的棲息地，砍伐森林以獲取木材，翻耕草原以種植作物，而且還修建了遍佈各地的公路和鐵路。

Species began going extinct at a much faster pace. Over the past five centuries, researchers have recorded 514 animal extinctions on land. But the authors of the new study found that documented extinctions are far rarer in the ocean.

物種開始以遠超從前的步伐滅絕。在過去的五百年中，研究人員記錄下了514種陸地動物的滅絕。但這項新研究的作者發現，海洋動物滅絕的文檔記錄則要罕見許多。

Before 1500, a few species of seabirds are known to have vanished. Since then, scientists have documented only 15 ocean extinctions, including animals such as the Caribbean monk seal and the Steller’s sea cow.

公元1500年之前，已知的滅絕海鳥只有區區幾種。自那之後，科學家只記錄下了15個海洋物種的滅絕，其中包括加勒比僧海豹和斯特拉海牛這樣的動物。

While these figures are likely underestimates, Dr. McCauley said that the difference is nonetheless revealing.

雖然這些數字很可能遭到了低估，但麥考利博士說，這種差距仍然發人深省。

“Fundamentally, we’re a terrestrial predator,” he said. “It’s hard for an ape to drive something in the ocean extinct.”

“從根本上說，我們是陸地捕食者，”他說。“猿類很難導致海洋中的東西滅絕。”

Many marine species that have become extinct or are endangered depend on land — seabirds that nest on cliffs, for example, or sea turtles that lay eggs on beaches.

已經滅絕或者瀕臨滅絕海洋物種中，很多都對陸地有所依賴——例如在懸崖上築巢的海鳥，或在海灘上產卵的海龜。

Still, there is time for humans to turn the tide, Dr. McCauley said, with effective programs limiting the exploitation of the oceans. The tiger may not be salvageable in the wild — but the tiger shark may well be.

人類仍然有時間扭轉局面，麥考利博士說，這需要制定並執行有效的程序，來限制對海洋的開發利用。野生老虎可能已經無法挽救——但虎鯊還大有希望。

“There are a lot of tools we can use,” he said. “We better pick them up and use them seriously.”

“我們可以利用的工具有很多，”他說。“我們最好拿起這些工具，認認真真地把它們利用起來。”

Dr. McCauley and his colleagues argue that limiting the industrialization of the ocean to some regions could allow threatened species to recover in other ones. “I fervently believe that our best partner in saving the ocean is the ocean itself,” said Stephen R. Palumbi of Stanford University, a co-author of the new study.

麥考利博士和同事們認爲，限制某些海域的開採利用，可能有助於其他地區瀕危物種的恢復。“我堅定地相信，在拯救海洋的過程中，我們最好的合作伙伴就是海洋本身，”這項研究報告的合著者、斯坦福大學的斯蒂芬·R·帕魯比(Stephen R. Palumbi)說。

The scientists also argued that these reserves had to be designed with climate change in mind, so that species escaping high temperatures or low pH would be able to find refuge.

科學家們還認爲，在規劃這些保護區的時候必須把氣候變化考慮在內，以便讓物種逃離高溫或者較低PH值，找到避難所。

“It’s creating a hopscotch pattern up and down the coasts to help these species adapt,” Dr. Pinsky said.

“需要在沿岸一帶規劃出錯落有致的保護區，來幫助各個物種適應環境，”平斯基博士說。

Ultimately, Dr. Palumbi warned, slowing extinctions in the oceans will mean cutting back on carbon emissions, not just adapting to them.

最終，帕魯比博士警告說，要減緩海洋物種滅絕速度，就需要削減碳排放，而不僅僅是適應它們。

“If by the end of the century we’re not off the business-as-usual curve we are now, I honestly feel there’s not much hope for normal ecosystems in the ocean,” he said. “But in the meantime, we do have a chance to do what we can. We have a couple decades more than we thought we had, so let’s please not waste it.”

“如果到本世紀結束時，我們仍然沒有脫離目前的事態發展曲線，老實說，我覺得要維持海洋生態系統的正常就沒有太大希望了，”他說。“但與此同時，我們確實也有機會，可以盡其可能地來改變這種狀況。和我們之前以爲的相比，時間有了幾十年的寬裕，所以千萬不要把它們白白浪費了。”