新興市場的新縮寫 Asteriscs new acronym for emerging markets

After much contemplation about the deficiencies of emerging markets as a concept and what would be required in a more useful descriptor, I believe referring to these investments as Asteriscs, or assets tied to economies of risky countries, does a better job.

在反覆思考了“新興市場”這個概念的種種缺陷，以及一個更有用的描述詞需要包含哪些要素之後，我認爲把這些投資稱爲Asteriscs（即assets tied to economies of risky countries的首字母縮寫，意爲“高風險國家經濟體關聯資產”）更爲貼切。

The catchy term emerging markets has been a marketing success. It has also been a poor guide for investors. Above all, it is confusingly inconsistent.

“新興市場”這個抓住想象力的詞是一個營銷上的成功。但對投資者來說，它是一個糟糕的指引。最主要的是，這個詞存在令人困惑的自相矛盾之處。

The term describes characteristics of the actual market: a nascent market with low liquidity. It can also refer to a country: an asset class of an “emerging” country. Problematically, the term is often used in both ways simultaneously. Yet, a country can have several markets (equities, bonds, currencies, real estate and others) with different characteristics.

這個詞描述了實際市場的特徵：一個流動性較低的新生市場。這個詞還可以指代一個國家：某個“新興”國家的一個資產類別。問題在於，這個詞往往用來同時表述這兩層含義。然而，一個國家可能有幾個特徵各不相同的市場（股票、債券、貨幣、房地產和其他）。

The concept of emerging markets can be misleading. Do markets or countries have to undergo positive transformations to be “emerging”? Occasional sarcastic references to “submerging” markets are understandable.

新興市場的概念可能產生誤導。市場或者國家必須經歷積極的轉變才能冠上“新興”之名嗎？人們偶爾會語帶諷刺地提及“下潛”市場，這可以理解。

Furthermore, the term emerging markets may make us take too much comfort from its counterpart, developed markets. “Developed” implies a stable equilibrium. Can developed markets regress? Recent debt crises in several developed countries indicate this question is not theoretical.

此外，“新興市場”這個詞可能讓我們對與其對應的“發達市場”過於放心。“發達”暗示了一種穩定的均衡狀態。發達市場是否會倒退？近年幾個發達國家的債務危機表明，這個問題並非只屬於理論層面。

The description of emerging markets as nascent markets fails to provide their defining characteristic. Lower liquidity is not always characteristic of emerging markets, nor is it an attribute exclusive to them.

將新興市場描述成新生的市場未能透徹表述它們的本質特徵。低流動性並不總是新興市場的特性，也並非新興市場特有。

More recently, a different label — frontier markets — has appeared to describe less liquid emerging markets.

近年出現了一個不同的標籤——前沿市場——用來描述流動性較低的新興市場。

Defining EM country risks

定義新興市場的國別風險

A country’s wealth is a good starting point for defining an emerging country. It bundles together many attributes, as per capita national income exhibits a strong, yet not perfect, correlation with other characteristics of interest to investors: institutional stability, rule of law, economic competitiveness, creditworthiness.

要定義一個新興國家，該國的財富是不錯的出發點，它集合了許多屬性，因爲人均國民收入表現出與投資者感興趣的其他特徵很強（儘管並非完美）的關聯度：體制穩定、法治、經濟競爭力和信譽。

We can thus start by thinking about emerging markets as a collection of asset classes affected by developments in non-rich countries.

因此，我們可以先把新興市場設想成受到不富裕國家發展影響的一個資產類別集合。

Viewed this way, the appeal and risks of emerging markets become clearer. The appeal is based on a promise that economies of emerging countries can grow at higher rates than those of their developed counterparts. This promise is embedded in the very definition of an emerging country. A non-rich country is starting with a lower base and has more room to catch up.

從這個角度看，新興市場的吸引力和風險變得比較清晰。其吸引力基於新興國家的經濟增長速度快於發達國家的可能性。這種可能性隱含在新興國家的定義之中。一個起點較低的不富裕國家有更大追趕空間。

The definition also warns us about main investment risks in emerging markets. There is information in the fact that these countries are not rich.

這個定義也提醒我們警惕新興市場的主要投資風險。這些國家不富裕的事實本身是包含一些信息的。

However, some rich countries facing geopolitical threats, regime-shattering political risk or severe debt problems could be still classified as emerging.

然而，一些面臨地緣政治威脅、政權崩塌的政治風險或者嚴重債務問題的富國依然可能被劃歸爲新興國家。

We need a more comprehensive definition of an emerging country using the presence of relatively high country risk as the differentiating criterion. Regardless of their specific nature, country risks share a common characteristic — the potential to affect performance of all asset classes with strong ties to that country.

我們需要將相對較高的國別風險的存在，作爲一個區分標準，對新興國家下一個更爲全面的定義。無論其具體性質如何，國別風險有一個共性，那就是可能影響與該國密切關聯的所有資產類別的表現。

Of course, recognising high country risk is easier after the event than before it. Still, at least one of the following characteristics is present in all cases of elevated country risk:

當然，在事後意識到較高的國別風險比事前容易。話雖如此，所有較高的國別風險案例都至少存在以下特徵之一：

A country’s wealth below the high income threshold

國家財富低於高收入門檻

A geopolitical threat

地緣政治威脅

Impaired creditworthiness

信譽受損

A non-democratic political regime

非民主政體

A geopolitical threat needs no explanation, with wars and lesser types of military conflicts constituting important risk factors. Impaired creditworthiness, as reflected for example in a speculative-grade credit rating, is a country risk because default on public debt is a systemic event that undermines investor confidence, damages the financial system and raises the cost of capital. Last, democracies institutionalise uncertainty as elected governments are constantly changing. Yet it is precisely the flexibility of a democratic system that mitigates the risk of a more sizeable political upheaval present in non-democratic regimes.

地緣政治威脅無需解釋，戰爭和較低烈度的軍事衝突構成重要的風險因素。就像（舉個例子）投機級信用評級所反映的那樣，信譽受損之所以是國別風險，是因爲公共債務違約是一種系統性事件，它將削弱投資者信心、損害金融體系，擡高資本成本。最後，民主政體將不確定性體制化，因爲選舉產生的政府總是在變更。然而，也正是民主體制的靈活性，緩解了非民主政體中存在的爆發更大政治動盪的風險。

In a world enamoured of acronyms, we can thus conceptualise emerging markets as Asteriscs — assets tied to economies of risky countries.

因此，在一個醉心於首字母縮略詞的世界裏，我們可以將新興市場概念化爲Asteriscs——高風險國家經濟體關聯資產。

In other words, emerging markets are asset classes with an asterisk next to them which should remind investors that, in addition to traditional risks which vary by asset class, they are also taking on an elevated country risk.

換句話說，新興市場是旁邊加了星號（asterisk，形似Asteriscs）的資產類別，這應當提醒投資者：除了隨資產類別而各有不同的傳統風險，他們還面對較高的國別風險。

Empirical research highlighting the importance of country risks in emerging markets supports this approach.

突顯出新興市場國別風險重要性的實證研究，支持這一做法。

Thinking of emerging markets as Asteriscs illuminates their two roles in a portfolio. First, by taking on elevated country risks, emerging markets can potentially enhance returns. Second, Asteriscs may also diversify the country risk levels within a portfolio.

將新興市場想成Asteriscs表明了它們在投資組合中的雙重角色。首先，較高的國別風險意味着，新興市場有望帶來更高回報。第二，Asteriscs或許也能分散一個投資組合內部的國別風險。

This is a potentially significant benefit, considering the home bias of many portfolios. It also makes accommodation for the fact that some developed economies are moving fast in the direction of becoming Asteriscs.

考慮到許多投資組合的本土偏向，這是一個潛在的重大好處。這個概念還顧及這樣一個事實，即某些發達經濟體正朝着Asteriscs的方向快速轉型。