新興市場外國直接投資普遍下滑 FDI collapses across emerging markets amid economic slowdown

With economic growth stalling — or in some cases plummeting — in many of the world’s developing countries, foreign direct investment appears to be following suit. In times of economic uncertainty, companies tend to seek out safe havens and will forfeit the growth opportunities that emerging markets present if these markets start to look unstable or sluggish. There are early signs that this trend could be at work.

由於全球很多發展中國家的經濟增長陷於停滯（一些國家甚至出現嚴重滑坡），外國直接投資(FDI)似乎也在追隨這一趨勢。在經濟不明朗時期，企業往往會尋找安全的避難所，如果新興市場開始看起來不穩定或低迷，它們還會放棄這些市場提供的增長機遇。早期跡象顯示，這種趨勢可能已經存在。

According to figures from fDi Markets, an FT data service, 97 of 154 countries typically classed as emerging markets have experienced declines in capital expenditure on greenfield investment projects in the first six months of this year compared with the same time period last year. (Eleven of the 154 countries did not have verifiable greenfield projects recorded last year so were excluded from the comparison.)

根據英國《金融時報》數據服務機構fDi Markets的數據，今年頭6個月，在154個一般列爲新興市場的國家中，有97個國家的綠地投資項目資本支出較去年同期出現下滑。（在這154個國家中，有11個去年沒有錄得可證實的綠地項目，因此被排除在外。）

In 25 of the 97 countries showing negative growth, capital expenditure collapsed to zero. Another 42 saw dramatic declines of 50 per cent or more; a further 22 saw drops of between 20 and 50 per cent between January-June 2014 and January-June 2015.

在這97個綠地投資項目資本支出負增長的國家中，有25個國家的資本支出銳降至零。從2014年上半年到今年上半年，另外42個國家的資本支出下降50%甚至更多；另有22個國家的資本支出下滑幅度介於20%至50%之間。

FDi has identified 61 developing countries that attracted more than $500m in greenfield investment in the first half of last year. Of those, 47 saw relative declines in the first half of this year. The fallers include some of the world’s major FDI markets, such as China (down 26 per cent), Brazil (-65 per cent) and Russia (-46 per cent), as well as a roll call of important economies in every region, from Hong Kong (-35 per cent), Malaysia (-49 per cent), Philippines (-48 per cent) and South Korea (-64 per cent) in Asia; to Poland (-21 per cent) and Romania (-17 per cent) in eastern Europe; Ghana (-56 per cent), Kenya (-44 per cent) and Nigeria (-23 per cent) in Africa; and Argentina (-6 per cent), Chile (-33 per cent), Colombia (-56 per cent) and Peru (-84 per cent) in Latin America. Mexico, while witnessing a decline, has fared better than most of its regional competitors with only a 3 per cent drop.

去年上半年，fDi確認有61個發展中國家吸引了逾5億美元的綠地投資。今年上半年，其中有47個國家的綠地投資出現相對下滑。下滑的國家包括一些全球大型外國直接投資市場，例如中國（下滑26%）、巴西（下滑65%）和俄羅斯（下滑46%），以及每個地區的重要經濟體，從亞洲的香港（下滑35%）、馬來西亞（下滑49%）、菲律賓（下滑48%）和韓國（下滑64%）；到東歐的波蘭（下滑21%）和羅馬尼亞（下滑17%）；非洲的加納（下滑56%）、肯尼亞（下滑44%）和尼日利亞（下滑23%）；以及拉美的阿根廷（下滑6%）、智利（下滑33%）、哥倫比亞（下滑56%）和祕魯（下滑84%）。儘管墨西哥也出現投資下滑，但其表現好於多數區域競爭對手，僅下滑3%。

Violence and security fears are hitting the inflows of countries such as Iraq (-76 per cent) and Yemen (-100 per cent) and causing a ripple effect around the region, impacting neighbouring Jordan (-83 per cent) Lebanon (-97 per cent) and Turkey (-25 per cent). Meanwhile, oil producers Angola (-99 per cent) and Saudi Arabia (-52 per cent) have posted declines after large investments by French energy group Total had boosted the 2014 FDI figures for both countries.

暴力和安全擔憂正影響伊拉克（下滑76%）和也門（下滑100%）等國家的資本流入，並在該地區產生連鎖反應，影響到臨近的約旦（下滑83%）、黎巴嫩（下滑97%）和土耳其（下滑25%）。與此同時，產油國安哥拉（下滑99%）和沙特阿拉伯（下滑52%）的資本流入也出現下滑，此前法國能源集團道達爾(Total)的鉅額投資曾在2014年提振了兩國的外國直接投資。

Although the negative percentages outweigh the positives, there are some growth stories still to be found. India, one of the star performers of 2014, has managed to more than double its midyear investment levels, attracting $30bn by the end of June compared with $12bn in the first half of last year. Indonesia has seen a 62 per cent increase in investment to nearly $14bn, and South Africa, 77 per cent to $3bn. Vietnam, another FDI star of 2014, is on track to match if not exceed its blockbuster year, attracting $7.5bn just as it had by the midway point of last year. The United Arab Emirates is also on par with its previous performance, attracting $3.5bn.

儘管投資下滑國家數量超過投資增長國家，但仍能找到一些增長故事。2014年表現最爲亮眼的國家之一印度成功將其年中投資水平擴大逾一倍，截至今年6月底吸引投資300億美元，而去年上半年爲120億美元。印尼的外國直接投資增長62%，至近140億美元，南非增長77%，至30億美元。2014年的另一個外國直接投資明星是越南，該國即將趕上甚至超過去年的強勁表現，同去年上半年一樣，該國今年上半年已吸引了75億美元的投資。阿聯酋也與去年的表現持平，吸引了35億美元的投資。

It may be too soon to speak yet of a genuine emerging markets FDI crash. Investment announcements sometimes pick up steam in the second half of the year. One or two large projects can inflate or skew capital investment data, some of which are based on estimates. And because greenfield investment decisions are deliberate, slow and long term, reading too much into the tea leaves about short-term trends can be risky. However, the sheer number of developing countries showing a clear downturn in year-on-year investment through the first two quarters of the year suggests that the broad trend will be extremely difficult if not impossible to reverse in the final two quarters.

現在就下結論說新興市場確實出現外國直接投資暴跌可能還爲時尚早。投資的公佈有時會在下半年升溫。一兩個大項目就可能擴大資本投資數據或者令數據出現偏差，其中一些數據基於估值。關於綠地項目投資的決定是審慎、緩慢且着眼長期的，因此過分研究短期趨勢可能是有風險的。然而，今年上半年，如此多發展中國家的投資較去年同期出現明顯下滑，這表明，要想在今年下半年逆轉這一總體趨勢將極其困難，甚至是不可能的。