富裕國家的中國溢出效應將越來越大

Emerging markets such as China pose a growing risk to advanced economies with events in developing economies increasingly responsible for price movements in financial markets in richer countries, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)警告稱，中國等新興市場對發達經濟體構成越來越大的風險，發展中經濟體發生的事件在越來越大的程度上影響着較富裕國家金融市場的價格走勢。

Moreover, markets were only just beginning to feel what was likely to be the growing impact of China in the years to come as its financial links with the rest of the global economy increase, IMF economists said yesterday.

IMF經濟學家們昨日表示，市場還只是剛剛開始感受到中國的影響；隨着中國與全球經濟其它部分的金融聯繫不斷增多，這種影響在未來幾年裏很可能不斷加大。

“It is likely that China’s spillovers to global financial markets will increase considerably in the next few years,” they said in a chapter of the upcoming Global Financial Stability Report released ahead of next week’s spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.

“中國對全球金融市場產生的溢出效應很可能將在未來幾年裏顯著加大，”他們在即將發表的《全球金融穩定報告》(Global Financial Stability Report)的一章裏表示。IMF和世界銀行(World Bank)下週將舉行春季會議。

The fund’s warning comes amid concerns about the slowing growth in China and its leadership’s efforts to shift the economy from one driven by manufacturing exports and investment to one more reliant on domestic consumption.

IMF發出警告之際，外界擔憂中國經濟增長放緩和中國領導層推動經濟轉型（從製成品出口和投資驅動轉向在更大程度上依賴國內消費）的努力。

It also comes as central banks in advanced economies such as the US Federal Reserve are increasingly factoring what is happening in emerging markets such as China into their own policy calculations.

與此同時，美聯儲(Federal Reserve)等發達經濟體的央行日益在運籌帷幄時考慮中國等新興市場的事態。

According to the IMF, the impact on advanced markets of developments in emerging economies had grown to the point where “spillovers” account for a third of price movements in advanced equity and foreign exchange markets.

IMF稱，新興經濟體的事態對發達市場產生的影響越來越大，已達到“溢出效應”佔發達經濟體股市和匯市三分之一價格變動的地步。

While news out of China had been behind much of the turmoil in commodities and other markets in recent months, the reality was that the direct financial market linkages remained relatively small, the IMF said.

IMF稱，儘管近幾個月從中國傳出的新聞在很大程度上導致大宗商品等市場的動盪，但現實是中國與外部世界的直接金融市場聯繫仍相對較小。

But strict limits on foreign investment in the local bond and other markets had begun to fall and capital controls had become increasingly porous, the fund’s economists said. The result was that the direct impact of China on financial markets was only likely to grow as its markets continued to open up.

但IMF經濟學家們表示，針對外資進入中國債券以及其它市場的嚴格限制已開始放寬，繞開資本管制的途徑也變得越來越多。其結果是，隨着中國的市場繼續加大開放，中國對金融市場產生的直接影響很可能有增無減。

“China’s financial integration with the rest of the world is expected to accelerate, and its financial influence abroad will likely catch up with its economic prowess,” the economists wrote.

“預計中國與世界其他地區的金融一體化將會加速，中國在海外的金融影響力將很可能趕上其經濟實力，”這些經濟學家寫道。

The Chinese bond market, for example, now had the third-largest market capitalisation in the world at $6.7tn and had been growing at an annual average rate of 22 per cent over the past five years, said the IMF. It was largely closed to foreign investors until last year, when central banks and sovereign wealth funds were allowed to invest.

IMF表示，舉例來說，中國債券市場的規模已經達到6.7萬億美元，位列世界第三，在過去五年裏年均擴大22%。在去年出臺改革、允許各國央行和主權財富基金投資之前，該市場對境外投資者基本上是關閉的。

That limited opening, which came about as China successfully pursued a place for the renminbi in the elite basket of currencies used to value the special drawing rights, the IMF’s own de facto currency, was likely to result in central banks allocating more resources to Chinese assets. It said the future “opening up of Chinese bond and equity markets will have major implications for global asset allocation”.

去年的有限開放很可能導致各國央行把更多資源配置到中國資產。與此同時，中國成功推動人民幣加入特別提款權(SDR)精英貨幣籃子、成爲這種IMF事實上的貨幣的估值貨幣之一。IMF稱，“中國債券和股票市場的（未來）開放將對全球資產配置產生重大影響”。

Much of the recent turmoil in financial markets had been blamed on a lack of clear communication by Beijing of its policy goals, and the growing risk of spillovers highlighted how and why that needed to change, the fund said.

該組織表示，近期金融市場的動盪在很大程度上被歸咎於北京方面對其政策目標缺乏明確溝通，而越來越大的溢出效應風險說明了這一局面如何以及爲什麼需要改變。