國際貿易停止增長 發達國家背棄全球化

The constant flow of goods from Asia to the United States was briefly interrupted last month after Hanjin, the South Korean shipping line, filed for bankruptcy, stranding several dozen of its cargo ships on the high seas.

韓國海運公司韓進上個月申請破產之後，曾導致公司的數十艘貨輪困在公海上，使得從亞洲接連不斷地運往美國的貨物流一度中斷。

It was a moment that made literal the stagnation of globalization.

這一刻，全球化的停滯表現得如此真實。

The growth of trade among nations is among the most consequential and controversial economic developments of recent decades.

國與國之間的貿易增長是近幾十年來最重要、也最有爭議的經濟發展形式。

Yet despite the noisy debates, which have reached new heights during this presidential campaign, it is a little-noticed fact that trade is no longer rising.

然而，儘管有關的辯論十分激烈，並在這次美國總統競選期間達到了新的高度，但人們忽略的一個事實是，貿易已不再上升。

The volume of global trade was flat in the first quarter of 2016, then fell by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, according to statisticians in the Netherlands, which happens to keep the best data.

據掌握着最好數據的荷蘭統計學家，全球貿易量在2016年第一季度持平，而後在第二季度下降0.8％。

The United States is no exception to the broader trend.

美國的情況也不例外。

The total value of American imports and exports fell by more than $200 billion last year.

美國去年的進出口總值下降了2000多億美元。

Through the first nine months of 2016, trade fell by an additional $470 billion.

在2016年的前9個月裏，貿易額再次下降了4700億美元。

It is the first time since World War II that trade with other nations has declined during a period of economic growth.

這是第二次世界大戰以來美國與其它國家的貿易首次在經濟增長期間出現下降。

Sluggish global economic growth is both a cause and a result of the slowdown.

全球經濟增長放緩是貿易減少的原因和結果。

In better times, prosperity increased trade and trade increased prosperity.

在經濟看好時，繁榮增加貿易，貿易促進繁榮。

Now the wheel is turning in the opposite direction.

目前的情況正相反。

Reduced consumption and investment are dragging on trade, which is slowing growth.

消費和投資的減少拖累了貿易，繼而導致經濟增長放緩。

But there are also signs that the slowdown is becoming structural.

但也有跡象表明，貿易減少也有結構性的原因。

Developed nations appear to be backing away from globalization.

發達國家似乎在背棄全球化進程。

The World Trade Organization’s most recent round of global trade talks ended in failure last year.

世界貿易組織最近一輪全球貿易談判去年以失敗告終。

The Trans-Pacific Partnership, an attempt to forge a regional agreement among Pacific Rim nations, also is foundering.

太平洋沿岸國家試圖建立的跨太平洋夥伴關係區域貿易協議也在走向破產。

It is opposed by both major-party American presidential candidates.

美國兩大黨的總統候選人都反對這個協議。

Meanwhile, new barriers are rising.

同時，新的貿易障礙在增加。

Britain is leaving the European Union.

英國正在離開歐盟。

The World Trade Organization said in July that its members had put in place more than 2,100 new restrictions on trade since 2008.

世界貿易組織今年7月表示，其成員國自從2008年以來共實施了2100多項新的貿易限制措施。

Curbing free trade would be stalling an engine that has brought unprecedented welfare gains around the world over many decades, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, wrote in a recent call for nations to renew their commitment to trade.

國際貨幣基金組織總裁克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)最近在一篇文章中呼籲各國重新開啓貿易承諾，她寫道：抑制自由貿易，將會導致在過去數十年給世界帶來前所未有的福祉的引擎熄滅。

Against the tide, the European Union and Canada signed a new trade deal on Sunday.

反潮流而行之，歐盟與加拿大於週日簽署了一項新的貿易協議。

It may be hard, however, to muster public enthusiasm in the United States and other developed nations.

但是，激發美國和其他發達國家的公衆對貿易的熱情可能很難。

The benefits of globalization have accrued disproportionately to the wealthy, while the costs have fallen on displaced workers, and governments have failed to ease their pain.

全球化的好處已不成比例地讓富人變得更富，全球化的代價卻落在了失業的工人身上，政府則未能緩解他們的痛苦。

The Walmart revolution is over.

沃爾瑪革命結束了。

During the 1990s, global trade grew more than twice as fast as the global economy.

在20世紀90年代，全球貿易的增長速度是全球經濟增長速度的兩倍以上。

Europe united.

歐洲聯合起來了。

China became a factory town.

中國成了世界工廠。

Tariffs came down.

關稅下降了。

Transportation costs plummeted.

運輸成本大幅下降了。

It was the Walmart Era.

那曾是沃爾瑪時代。

But those changes have played out.

但是，這些變化的後果已經出現。

Europe is fraying around the edges; low tariffs and transportation costs cannot get much lower.

歐洲正在分崩離析；低關稅和低運輸成本不能再往下降多少。

And China’s role in the global economy is changing.

中國在全球經濟中的作用正在改變。

The country is making more of what it consumes, and consuming more of what it makes.

中國正在爲國內消費製造更多的東西，也在消費更多本國製造的東西。

In addition, China’s maturing industrial sector increasingly makes its own parts.

另外，中國日益成熟的工業也在越來越多地生產自己的零部件。

The International Monetary Fund reported last year that the share of imported components in products Made in China has fallen to 35 percent from 60 percent in the 1990s.

國際貨幣基金組織（簡稱IMF）在去年的一份報告中說，中國製造的產品中使用的進口零部件份額已從1990年代的60％下降到35％。

The result: The I.M.F. study calculated that a 1 percent increase in global growth increased trade volumes by 2.5 percent in the 1990s, while in recent years, the same growth has increased trade by just 0.7 percent.

IMF的研究計算出來的結果是，在20世紀90年代，全球經濟每增長1％能爲貿易帶來2.5％的增長，而近年來，同樣經濟增長只能帶來0.7％的貿易增長。

Hanjin, like other big shipping companies, bet that global trade would continue to expand rapidly.

與其他大型海運公司一樣，韓進把賭注下在全球貿易將繼續快速增長上。

In 2009, the world’s cargo lines had enough room to carry 12.1 million of the standardized shipping containers that have played a crucial, if quiet, role in the rise of global trade.

2009年，世界上的貨運公司有運送1210萬件標準集裝箱的充足能力，這些集裝箱在全球貿易增長上起了至關重要的作用，雖然人們很少知道這點。

By last year, they had room for 19.9 million — much of it unneeded.

截至去年，這些貨運公司有運送1990萬件集裝箱的能力，但很大一部分都用不上。

India is not China redux.

印度不是中國再現。

Most trade flows among developed nations.

大多數貿易是在發達國家之間進行的。

The McKinsey Global Institute calculates that 15 countries account for roughly 63 percent of the global traffic in goods and services, and for an even larger share of financial investment.

據麥肯錫全球研究所計算，15個國家佔全球貨物和服務貿易的63％，它們在全球金融投資上佔的份額更大。

China joined this club the old-fashioned way: It used factories to build a middle class.

中國用老式的方法加入了這個俱樂部：中國用工廠養起來一箇中產階級。

But the automation of factory work is making it harder for other nations to follow.

但是，製造業的自動化讓其他國家走這條路變得更難。

Dani Rodrik, a Harvard economist, calculates that manufacturing employment in India and other developing nations has already peaked, a phenomenon he calls premature deindustrialization.

哈佛大學經濟學家丹尼•羅德里克(Dani Rodrik)的計算表示，印度和其他發展中國家的製造業就業已經達到了頂峯，他稱這種現象爲過早去工業化。

The weakness of the global economy is exacerbating the trend.

全球經濟的疲軟正在加劇這個趨勢。

Infrastructure investment by multinational corporations declined for the third straight year in 2015, according to the United Nations.

據聯合國的數據，跨國公司的基礎設施投資在2015年連續第三年下降。

It predicts a further decline this year.

聯合國預計這種投資今年將進一步下降。

But even if growth rebounds, automation reduces the incentives to invest in the low-labor-cost developing world, and it reduces the benefits of such investments for the residents of developing countries.

但是，即使經濟增長反彈，自動化也降低了對低勞動力成本的發展中國家進行投資的動力，從而減少這種投資爲發展中國家居民帶來的好處。

The political reaction is global, too.

政治的反彈也是全球性的。

The economist Branko Milanovic published a chart in 2012 that is sometimes called the elephant chart, because there is a certain resemblance.

經濟學家布蘭科•米拉諾維奇(Branko Milanovic)曾在2012年發表過一條曲線，該曲線有時被稱爲大象曲線，因爲兩者有一定的相似性。

It shows real incomes rose significantly for most of the world’s population between 1988 and 2008, but not for most residents of the United States and other developed countries.

該曲線顯示，在1988年至2008年期間，世界上大多數人口的實際收入大幅上升，但美國和其他發達國家的大多數居民的收入沒有上升。

The chart is often presented as a depiction of the consequences of globalization.

這條曲線常被作爲全球化後果的刻畫。

The reality is more complicated, but perception is undeniable.

雖然現實更復雜，但這種看法不可否認。

Voters in developed nations increasingly view themselves as the victims of trade with the developing world — and a backlash is brewing.

發達國家的選民們越來越認爲自己是本國與發展中國家貿易的受害者，一種政治反彈正在形成。

Donald J. Trump’s presidential campaign is an obvious manifestation, as is Hillary Clinton’s backing off from her support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.

唐納德•J•特朗普(Donald J. Trump)的總統競選就是這種反彈的一個明顯表現，希拉里•克林頓(Hillary Clinton)也改變了自己對跨太平洋夥伴關係貿易協議的支持。

A study published in April found that voters in congressional districts hit hardest by job losses are more likely to reject moderate candidates, turning instead to candidates who take more extreme positions.

今年4月發表的一項研究發現，失業率最高的國會選區選民不考慮中間派候選人的可能性更高，而是選擇採取更極端立場的候選人。

Economic stagnation is turning European voters against trade, too.

經濟停滯也讓歐洲選民對貿易持反對態度。

Professor Rodrik said that proponents of free trade were guilty of overstating the benefits and understating the costs.

羅德里克教授說，自由貿易的支持者犯的錯誤是，誇大了貿易帶來的好處，低估貿易的代價。

Because they failed to provide those distinctions and caveats, now trade gets tarred with all kinds of ills even when it’s not deserved, he said.

由於他們沒有做出這些區別和警告，如今貿易與各種弊病被視爲是一路貨色，即使並不都罪有應得，他說。

If the demagogues and nativists making nonsensical claims about trade are getting a hearing, it is trade’s cheerleaders that deserve some of the blame.

如果說蠱惑民心的政客和本土主義者對貿易發起無稽之談的攻擊很得人心的話，貿易的吹鼓手們對此負有一定的責任。