用長遠眼光看待比特幣

Less than a year ago, a single bitcoin, the most popular digital currency, could be purchased for less than $1,000. This month it touched almost $20,000 on some digital asset exchanges, and recently has been trading for about $15,000.

不到一年前，只要不到1000美元就可以買到一枚最流行的數字貨幣——比特幣。本月，單枚比特幣在部分數字資產交易平臺上的價格觸及近2萬美元，最近徘徊在1.5萬美元左右。

To put things in perspective, it took nearly seven years for bitcoin to reach the price it fetched in January before this bull run. And the current market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies represents “only” half a trillion dollars, a mere drop in the ocean of the global financial services industry which is worth many multiples of that. The most ludicrous projections are being extrapolated from the growth of the past few months.

回顧以往，比特幣用了近7年才達到今年1月的賣價，之後便開啓了本輪的牛市行情。各種加密貨幣當前的市值總和“只有”5000億美元，相比全球金融服務行業僅爲滄海一粟，後者的市值要高出許多倍。有人從過去幾個月的增長勢頭中推斷出了最可笑的預測。

The voices of professional optimists are countered by warnings from Cassandras made uncomfortable by the exponential rise of cryptocurrencies. Both sides fail to see the significance of the adoption of such currency by millions of people around the world in 2017.

專業的樂觀主義者的聲音遭遇了災禍預言家的警告，加密貨幣的迅猛崛起令後者感到不安。雙方都沒有認識到2017年此類貨幣被世界各地數以百萬計的人們使用的意義。

Fundamentally, the digital currency revolution is not about returns for early investors. The finite supply of bitcoin encourages a positive price cycle as the ecosystem that rewards early buyers grows. But the legitimate concern currently expressed at the rise of bitcoin misses what is most significant about the paradigm shift that is taking place.

從根本上說，這場數字貨幣革命的意義不在於給早期投資者帶來了多少回報。隨着這個獎勵早期買家的生態系統不斷髮展，比特幣的有限供應導致了一種正向的價格週期。但當前對比特幣崛起所表達的合理擔憂忽視了這場正在發生的範式轉換的最重要意義。

Historians will look at 2017 as the advent of a new form of trust. Money, after all, is nothing else: trust, inscribed and put into operation. In the past 12 months, millions have shown themselves willing to trust a stateless digital currency based on mathematics.

歷史學家將視2017年爲一種新形式信任的誕生之年。畢竟，金錢不外乎是信任、記錄和投入使用。過去12個月，數以百萬計的人們展現出了他們願意相信一種基於運算的無國界數字貨幣。

Beyond finance and macroeconomics, the potential political implications for those who see the return of nationalism not as a renaissance but as the nation state’s swan song can no longer easily be dismissed. ?

在金融和宏觀經濟學之外，對於把民族主義迴歸視作民族國家輓歌而不是一種復興的人而言，這種現象的潛在政治含義再也不能被輕易地視而不見。

Of course, many of these people live in countries where runaway inflation, bank failures and economic crises are not once-in-a-lifetime phenomena but regular occurrences. But even in so-called high-trust societies, the bitcoin rush is far from irrational. Some of the world’s most credible central banks are tiptoeing their way towards the emission of sovereign digital assets.

當然，此類人許多都生活在經常出現通脹失控、銀行倒閉和經濟危機的國家。但即便是在所謂高信任度的社會，比特幣熱潮也絕不是非理性的。全球最有公信力的幾家央行正小心翼翼地朝着推出主權數字資產的方向邁進。

It is easy to focus on the fluctuation of this or that crypto-asset and to miss the big picture. We are only beginning to grasp the seismic nature of the changes induced by ubiquitous, secure, decentralised ledgers and the quasi-instantaneous clearing they make possible.

人們很容易將注意力集中於這種或那種加密資產的波動上，而忽略了大勢。我們纔剛剛開始領會這些變革的震撼性，它們是由無處不在、安全、分佈式記賬及其帶來的近乎瞬時的結算所引發的變革。

Over the course of the past 12 months, digital currency developers and market places have been hacked, while companies have been overwhelmed by their own growth and seen their systems and teams buckle under the pressure.

過去12個月，數字貨幣開發者和交易市場都遭到了黑客攻擊，相關公司因自身發展太快而力不從心，系統和團隊承受不住壓力。

As the industry grows, many more companies will encounter the same problems. Indeed, rapid growth comes with countless challenges. Building a new financial system is volatile and risky. But one only need look back at the beginnings of our modern banking system, which underpinned the unprecedented growth of the past century, to realise that today’s nascent digital currency system is actually quite tame.

隨着行業的發展，還有更多的公司將遭遇同樣的問題。事實上，伴隨快速增長而來的就是無數的挑戰。建立一個新金融體系的過程充滿波折和風險。但只需回顧一下現代銀行業體系的發端——這個體系支撐過去一個世紀空前的增長——就會讓我們意識到，如今新興的數字貨幣體系實際上相當溫和。

The value of bitcoin, and other digital currencies, will rise rapidly. Until it falls, just as fast. Investors with a short-term view will lose money, much like those who sold their stock after the dotcom bubble. Investors should only invest if they believe in the long-term vision of creating a global, stateless, opt-in financial system. They should also be prepared to hold their position for a very long time. I know I am.

比特幣等數字貨幣的價值將迅速攀升。然後下跌，以同樣快的速度。持短線視點的投資者將遭遇虧損，就像那些在互聯網泡沫破裂後拋售股票的投資者一樣。只有在相信會出現一個全球性、無國界、選擇性加入的金融體系的長期願景時，投資者才應該進行投資。他們還應準備好在很長一段時間內持有頭寸。我知道我是這樣的。