暫時不用太擔心比特幣

Bitcoin prices are in a bubble. To recognise this, one need only look at the cryptocurrency’s vertiginous path to its current peak of more than $16,000 — and then recall that it has no intrinsic value. It is not productive like oil, and no government stands behind it. It is not even physically attractive, as paintings, gold and tulips are. As of today, the sole legitimate reason to buy bitcoin it is to sell it later for a higher price.

比特幣(Bitcoin)價格存在泡沫。要認識到這一點，人們只需要看看這種加密貨幣達到目前逾16000美元這一峯值的令人眩暈的上漲過程——然後記得它不具備內在價值。它不像石油一樣有生產用途，也沒有政府爲其背書。它甚至也不像繪畫、黃金以及鬱金香那樣有外觀上的吸引力。到目前爲止，購買比特幣唯一合理的理由就是爲了之後可以高價出售。

Should anyone care about this? There is now quite a bit of nominal value behind bitcoin. Multiply the price by the number of bitcoins and the result is more than $270bn — roughly the Market capitalisation and double the book value of Wells Fargo, the third-largest bank in the US. There is reason to think still more money is going to flow to bitcoin. Two major exchanges, the CME Group and Cboe Global Markets Global Markets, are about to launch bitcoin futures exchanges. Historically, asset bubbles ascend to their wildest heights after derivative trading is introduced. Such trading is easier and less capital intensive than cash trading and delivery of the underlying asset.

人們應該關心這一點嗎？眼下比特幣具備了不少的名義價值。用比特幣的價格乘以數量，可以得出其總價值已經超過2700億美元——大體相當於美國第三大銀行富國銀行(Wells Fargo)的市值，並且是其賬面價值的兩倍。人們有理由認爲還會有更多資金流入比特幣。芝加哥商品交易所集團(CME Group)和芝加哥期權交易所全球市場(Cboe Global Markets)這兩家主要的交易所將推出比特幣期貨產品。在歷史上，資產泡沫攀升至最瘋狂的高度往往是在引入衍生品交易後。相比標的資產的現金交易與交割，衍生品交易操作更簡單且資本密集程度更低。

It is telling that Wall Street banks, usually keen to cash in on the sudden popularity of innovative derivatives — mortgage-backed credit default swaps, say — are encouraging regulators to review bitcoin futures more carefully. They have reason to be nervous. Any bitcoin futures trades will have to pass through clearing houses, where defaults are covered by member institutions, such as the brokerage arms of the big banks. If a mass of trades go bad, for example because a crash in the bitcoin price leaves lots of traders unable to make good on their trades, the clearing house could end up holding the bag.

通常急於在創新衍生工具（比如抵押貸款支持信用違約掉期）的突然火爆中牟利的華爾街銀行，正在鼓勵監管部門更謹慎地審查比特幣期貨，這很能說明問題。他們有理由繃緊神經。所有的比特幣期貨交易都將必須通過清算所完成，一旦出現違約將由成員機構負責，比如大型銀行的經紀業務部門。一旦大批交易出現問題，比如因爲比特幣價格崩盤導致大批交易者無法完成交易，最終背鍋的可能是清算所。

It may also be that the banks simply do not want to be involved. As demonstrated by the spiking price, the bitcoin market lacks natural sellers (other than bitcoin “miners” who need to sell bitcoins to pay the electricity bills on their computerised mines). This would leave the brokers either taking the “short” side of trades themselves, a big risk, or refusing to take clients’ trades and potentially losing business.

也可能銀行業只是不想參與其中。正如其價格飆升所表明的那樣，比特幣市場缺少自然的賣家（除了那些需要出售比特幣以支付計算機挖礦所耗電費的比特幣“挖礦人”）。這使得經紀商要麼本身在交易中“做空”（這存在巨大的風險），要麼拒絕爲客戶交易、從而可能失去業務。

It may be that the futures markets will simply flop for lack of people willing to bet against bitcoin while the price is still rising. If so, good. Speculation in bitcoin (or any other arbitrary thing) should be allowed in a free society — so long as it does not put others at risk. If this collective waste of time and energy fails to take hold, that is likely to be for the best.

由於在價格繼續上漲時缺少願意押注比特幣價格下跌的人，期貨市場可能會失敗。如果真是這樣，那也不錯。自由社會應該允許比特幣（或任何一種東西）投機行爲的存在——只要這種行爲不會把他人置於險境。如果這種集體浪費時間和能源的行爲最終沒能站穩腳跟，那可能是最好的結果。

But will no one else get hurt? Of course, bitcoin could crash to zero. A lot of paper wealth would disappear. But bitcoin is not a bank. It is not highly leveraged, and it seems to have been used as collateral in only a limited number of cases. Much of its nominal value is in essence “found money”. So there is limited cause for worry — until the value gets much higher, or much more leverage seeps into the financial ecosystem surrounding the cryptocurrency. This could happen. Regulators need to follow events closely, and insist on high-margin requirements and tight risk controls for trading in derivatives.

但是不會有其他人受傷嗎？當然，比特幣可能會暴跌到零。很多賬面財富都會消失。但比特幣不是銀行。比特幣的槓桿不高，似乎只在有限的情況中被用作抵押物。比特幣大部分名義價值本質上屬於“意外之財”。因此沒必要太過擔憂——除非其價值進一步大幅攀升、或者人們在圍繞這種加密貨幣的金融生態系統中瘋狂加槓桿。這種情況可能出現。監管部門需要密切跟蹤事態發展，並且對比特幣衍生品交易堅持高保證金的要求，並實行嚴格的風險控制。

While there are no legitimate, non-speculative reasons to buy bitcoin, there are of course significant illegitimate ones. So long as it retains value, bitcoin is a useful tool for tax evaders, money launderers, and anyone who wishes to avoid the rules and regulations that govern traditional fiat currencies. So while it is not necessary to put up regulatory barriers to trading bitcoin, the points where it connects with traditional currencies, banking systems, and tax regimes should be carefully controlled. Innovative technology is not a licence to break the law.

儘管沒有合理的非投機性理由來購買比特幣，但確實有重要的非法理由來購買它。只要比特幣還存在價值，它就是人們逃稅、洗錢以及躲避傳統法定貨幣相關法規的有效工具。因此，儘管沒有必要對比特幣交易設置監管障礙，但有關部門應該謹慎控制比特幣與傳統貨幣、銀行系統以及稅收制度的連接點。創新技術不是違法行爲的許可證。