澳大利亞資源投資熱潮趨冷

Australia's multibillion-dollar spending boom on resources is losing momentum unexpectedly rapidly, with several projects on hold or cancelled as commodity prices fall and banks become less willing to lend.

隨着大宗商品價格的下跌，以及銀行放貸意願的降低，澳大利亞資源領域那些動輒數十億美元的投資項目出人意料地迅速失去了聲勢，多個項目被擱置，有些甚至被取消。

From copper mines in tropical Queensland state to the big iron-ore pits in the country's arid west, mining companies are laying off workers and idling equipment until metal prices rise sufficiently.

從熱帶昆士蘭州的銅礦到西部乾旱地區的大型鐵礦，礦企紛紛裁減員工、停運設備，它們要等金屬價格出現足夠大的漲幅後纔會重整旗鼓。

The cutbacks are largely in response to China, which needs vast amounts of coal for its power stations and iron ore for the steel frames in its high-rise buildings, but where demand for commodities has been slowing. Iron-ore prices, which hit a record last year, are now at a 2½-year low, and aluminum and nickel prices also are holding near multi-year lows.

它們此舉主要是在對中國市場的情況做出反應。中國的電廠需要大量煤炭，生產高層建築採用的鋼鐵框架需要大量鐵礦石，但中國的大宗商品需求一直在減速。去年曾達歷史高點的鐵礦石價格現在處於兩年半以來的最低水平，鋁、鎳價格也接近多年來的低點。

Australia's government is forecasting a 500 billion Australian dollars (US$522 billion) pipeline of mining and resources projects, spending that it hopes will ensure the economy avoids the relative stagnation experienced in Europe and the U.S. While it doesn't specify a time period, most of the spending on projects listed on the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics's website is expected to happen between 2012 and 2017.

澳大利亞政府預計，投資者在該國的礦山和資源項目上還將投入5,000億澳元（合5,220億美元）的資金。它希望這些投資能夠確保澳大利亞經濟免於像歐洲和美國那樣陷入相對停滯狀態。澳大利亞資源能源經濟局(Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics)的網站雖然沒有給出該網站所列投資項目的具體投資進度，但預計項目的多數資金會在2012年到2017年之間投入。

Already, this spending boom has helped pushed the Australian dollar above parity versus the U.S. dollar. But the Australian dollar's rise has heaped pressure on industries from tourism to education, which would need to cushion the economy if mining investment slows.

這一投資熱潮已推動澳元兌美元匯率突破了1比1的水平。但澳元升值也給澳大利亞從旅遊到教育等諸多產業帶來了壓力。如果礦業投資放緩，那麼澳大利亞就需要靠這些產業來爲經濟提供緩衝。

In a sign the spending slowdown is starting to worry policy makers, the Reserve Bank of Australia said this month it expects investment in resources to peak in the fiscal year that ends June 30, 2014─earlier than it previously thought.

澳大利亞央行(Reserve Bank of Australia)本月表示，預計資源領域的投資會在截至2014年6月30日的財政年度內見頂，早於它先前的估計。這說明投資的放緩已經開始引起決策者的擔憂。

'The maximum spending is around the end of next year,' Guy Debelle, the bank's assistant governor for financial markets, said last week. 'So it would be surprising if you saw even more after that.'

央行分管金融市場的助理行長德貝萊(Guy Debelle)上週說，投資最高峯將出現在下一年度的年底，如果在那之後投資進一步增長的話，那就奇怪了。

Analysts think that not all of the projects in the government's A$500 billion pipeline will happen without a major recovery in commodity prices or an increased willingness by banks to lend. That is because around half of the money is tied to projects that still need financing or the final go-ahead from regulators or company bosses.

分析師認爲，如果大宗商品價格不出現重大反彈、銀行放貸意願不提高，那麼政府預計的5,000億澳元投資就不會全部成爲現實。這是因爲其中約一半資金所涉及的項目要麼仍未落實資金，要麼仍然有待監管機構或公司高層的最終批准。

'That part of the pipeline will be going through some very serious reconsideration at this time,' said Mike Elliott, leader of Ernst & Young's global mining and metals team.

安永(Ernst & Young)全球礦業與金屬團隊的負責人埃利奧特(Mike Elliott)說，在目前這個時候，相關方面會非常認真地重新評估這些投資項目。

Already, some flagship projects included in the government's forecast have landed on the scrap heap. In May, the Queensland state government said it won't proceed with a planned US$9 billion expansion of Abbot Point, Australia's most northerly coal port.

政府上述預測包含的一部分旗艦項目已被放棄。昆士蘭州政府5月份表示不會繼續推進澳大利亞最北端煤炭港口“Abbot Point”斥資90億美元的擴建計劃。

Analysts also think several other big projects, such as BHP Billiton Ltd.'s near-$30 billion expansion of the Olympic Dam copper and uranium mine in South Australia and Xstrata PLC's $7 billion Wandoan coal development in Queensland could be delayed.

分析師認爲，另外多個大型項目也有可能擱淺，如必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)斥資近300億美元擴建南澳大利亞州銅、鈾礦“Olympic Dam”的計劃，以及Xstrata PLC斥資70億美元在昆士蘭州開發Wandoan煤礦的計劃。

A BHP spokeswoman said no decision has been made on Olympic Dam.

必和必拓一位發言人表示，公司還沒有對Olympic Dam項目做出決定。

'Against a backdrop of increasing costs and falling commodity prices, we continue to focus on reducing our overheads, operating costs and nonessential expenditures,' she said.

她說，在成本上升、大宗商品價格下跌的背景下，我們繼續致力於削減管理費用、運營成本和非必需支出。

Xstrata is waiting for regulators to grant it a mining license for Wandoan.

Xstrata正在等候監管機構爲Wandoan煤礦發放採礦牌照。

U.K.-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie estimates only A$284 billion will be spent on the mining and energy projects listed by Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics between this year and 2017.

美國諮詢公司Wood Mackenzie估計，從今年起到2017年，資源能源經濟局網站上列出的礦業和能源項目只會獲得2,840億澳元的投資。

Even this figure masks the underlying challenge facing the industry, as around 70% is tied to huge gas-export projects along Australia's coastline that are underpinned by binding sales contracts with Asian utilities lasting two decades or more. Mining projects are more vulnerable, as many don't have customers in place and their profitability depends on prices recovering.

就連這個數字也掩蓋了整個行業面臨的主要挑戰。這個數額當中，70%的部分都與澳大利亞沿海的大型天然氣出口項目有關，支撐這些項目的，是澳大利亞與亞洲地區公用事業公司之間長達20年甚至更久的銷售合同。礦業項目更容易受衝擊，因爲很多項目還沒有確定客戶，其盈利能力取決於價格是否反彈。

'The risk is on the downside, and more conservative shareholder sentiment will result in the shelving of all but very compelling projects,' said Liam Twigger, managing director of Perth-based corporate advisor PCF Capital Group.

珀斯市諮詢公司PCF Capital Group的執行董事特威格(Liam Twigger)說，股東們的風險承受意願在下降，他們變得更爲保守，這將使那些不是最有盈利把握的項目都被束之高閣。

The scale of recent investment, particularly in the liquefied natural gas sector, will cushion the impact on the economy and give companies breathing space to see if commodity prices rebound, debt markets open wider, and the global outlook improves.

近期的投資規模(特別是液化天然氣領域的投資)將緩衝礦業投資熱退潮對澳大利亞經濟造成的衝擊，並讓企業獲得喘息空間，以等待大宗商品價格反彈、債務市場降低門檻、以及全球經濟前景的改善。

But each deferral of a project has repercussions in near-term spending and jobs, which may be critical for a government that has pinned hopes for a return to a balanced budget next year on a new tax on iron-ore and coal profits and a levy on carbon emissions.

但每一個項目的推遲都會對短期的投資和就業產生影響。澳大利亞政府已把下一年度實現財政平衡的希望寄託在對鐵礦石和煤炭利潤徵收新稅、並收取碳排放稅之上，所以對它說來，短期內的投資和就業可能是至關重要的。

Smaller companies are already taking a more conservative stance. Ivanhoe Australia Ltd., a unit of Rio Tinto PLC, has cut up to 50 workers this year as commodity prices fell, and has said it will defer an open-pit mine targeting copper and gold in Queensland.

小公司已經在採取更爲保守的做法。由於大宗商品價格下跌，力拓(Rio Tinto PLC)的子公司Ivanhoe Australia Ltd.已在今年裁員多達50人，並表示將推遲昆士蘭州一個銅、金露天礦的開發。

Perth-based mining company Aquila Resources Ltd. is reducing spending on its A$5.8 billion iron-ore project in Western Australia to a minimum. It and closely held U.S. partner AMCI aim to conserve funding given changes in the operating environment, including a drop in prices for the steelmaking ingredient. The companies have already spent about A$400 million and are seeking to secure funding from China, but need a government decision on a new port that would export their ore.

珀斯礦業公司Aquila Resources Ltd.將把其西澳大利亞一個58億澳元鐵礦石項目的投資削減到最低水平。考慮到鐵礦石價格下降等運營環境的變化，該公司及其未上市的美國合作伙伴AMCI打算節省資金。兩家公司已經投入資金約4億澳元，正在謀求從中國融資，但在新建一個港口以出口所產鐵礦石的問題上還有待政府批准。

More serious problems have hit zinc and copper miner Kagara Ltd., which has called in administrators because of a cash-flow crisis.

鋅、銅礦商Kagara Ltd.遇到的問題更加嚴重，由於出現現金流危機，它已召回管理人員。

'Given cost blow-outs, delays and a tough macro market, the willingness of the market to provide capital to all projects has diminished and earlier-stage and high-capital expenditure projects are definitely going to find it harder,' said Tim Day, an analyst at UBS. 'Saying this, quality projects, no matter where in the development cycle, will always attract finance.'

瑞銀(UBS)分析師戴伊(Tim Day)說，考慮到成本飆升、項目推遲、市場環境嚴酷，市場爲各種項目提供資金的意願已經降低，處於初期開發階段的項目以及高投入項目的處境肯定會更加艱難；話雖如此，只要是優質項目，不管是處在開發週期的哪一階段，它總會引來資金。