全球氣候變化談判取得有限進展
The pledges that countries are making to battle climate change would still allow the world to heat up by more than 6 degrees Fahrenheit, a new analysis shows, a level that scientists say is likely to produce catastrophes ranging from food shortages to widespread extinctions of plant and animal life.
一份新的分析報告顯示，即使各國已做出對抗氣候變化的承諾，也無法阻止全球平均溫度上升逾6華氏度。科學家們表示，這個上升水平很可能會帶來從糧食短缺到動植物大規模滅絕的種種災難。
Yet, in the world of global climate politics, that counts as progress.
不過，在全球氣候政治領域，這相當於進步。
The new figures will be released Monday in New York as a week of events related to climate change comes to an end. The highlight was an urgent moral appeal at the United Nations on Friday from Pope Francis, urging countries to reach “fundamental and effective agreements” when they meet in Paris in December to try to strike a new global climate deal.
隨着爲期一週的與氣候變化有關的活動接近尾聲，相關機構將在週一公佈這些新數據。本輪氣候活動的亮點在於，教皇方濟各(Pope Francis)於週五在聯合國發出了急迫的道德呼籲，敦促各個國家今年12月在巴黎召開會議嘗試達成新的全球氣候協議時，取得“根本性的有效共識”。
For much of this year, countries have been issuing pledges about how much emissions they are willing to cut in coming decades. With a plan announced by Brazil on Sunday, every major country except for India has now made a commitment to take to the Paris conference.
在今年的許多時間裏，各個國家在就未來幾十年願意削減多少排放做出承諾。巴西在週日宣佈了自身的計劃，使得除了印度之外的大國均在巴黎會議之前給出了承諾。
An analysis by researchers at Climate Interactive, a group whose calculations are used by American negotiators and by numerous other governments, is expected to be released Monday and was provided in advance to The New York Times. It shows that the collective pledges would reduce the warming of the planet at century’s end to about 6.3 degrees, if the national commitments are fully honored, from an expected 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit, if emissions continue on their present course.
氣候互動組織(Climate Interactive)計劃於週一發佈旗下研究人員撰寫的這份分析報告，而《紐約時報》提前獲得了全文。美國談判代表和很多其他國家的政府在使用該組織的預測數據。報告顯示，如果排放保持目前的趨勢，全球變暖的幅度會在本世紀末達到8.1華氏度（合4.5攝氏度），但如果各國恪守承諾，合起來會令這一數字降至6.3華氏度（合3.5攝氏度）。
That would be the biggest reduction in the history of global climate politics, and a sign that 20 years of disappointing negotiations may be giving way to an era when countries start to move the needle on the projected global temperature.
這將是全球氣候政治歷史上最大的降幅，標誌着20年來令人失望的談判可能會被另一個時代替代——各國開始在預期的全球氣溫變化上造成可見的影響。
Yet the analysis also shows that the nations are still a far way from meeting their own shared target, set in 2010, of limiting global warming to about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. That level of warming, while potentially producing dire effects on agriculture, sea level and the natural world, might at least be tolerable, some experts believe.
但這項報告也顯示，這些國家距離他們在2010年設定的共同目標還非常遠，即將全球變暖幅度控制在約3.6華氏度（約合2攝氏度）。一些專家認爲，這種程度的溫度增長，儘管還是會給農業發展、海平面和自然界產生嚴重影響，但至少在可接受的範圍內。
The pledges countries have made “are a big step forward, but not sufficient — not even close,” said John D. Sterman, a professor of management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Climate Interactive, a Washington organization with extensive ties to M.I.T., receives foundation money to build tools that help governments and the public understand climate policy.
那些作出承諾的國家已經“向前邁進了一大步，但這還不夠，遠遠不夠，”麻省理工學院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)管理學教授約翰·D·斯特曼(John D. Sterman)說。一家與麻省理工學院有廣泛聯繫的華盛頓機構“氣候互動”(Climate Interactive)獲得了來自基金會的資金，以研發可以幫助政府和公衆瞭解氣候政策的工具。
Making any serious pledge has been a political challenge in many countries, including the United States, where President Obama has encountered vociferous opposition in Congress. Governments are unlikely to want to reopen those fights in the remaining two months before the Paris talks. Thus, many analysts expect that any final deal struck in Paris will probably not be enough to forestall dangerous levels of global warming.
在很多國家，做出嚴肅的承諾一直都是個政治難題。美國也是這樣，奧巴馬總統就在國會遭遇了激烈的反對。距離巴黎會議的舉行還有兩個月，各國政府不會想在這段時間裏重新挑起這類爭執。所以，很多分析師預測，巴黎會議上最後達成的任何協議可能都不足以提前阻止全球變暖達到危險的程度。
“Everyone is now convinced there will be agreement in Paris,” President Fran漀椀猀 Hollande of France said Sunday afternoon at the United Nations. “But the question is, what kind of agreement?”
“所有人現在都確信，巴黎會議會達成一項協議，”法國總統弗朗索瓦·奧朗德(Fran漀椀猀 Hollande)週日下午在聯合國講道。“但問題是，什麼樣的協議呢？”
Despite the uncertainty, optimism is growing among some diplomats and scientists that progress has become possible. Intensive engagement between China and the United States over the past two years helped break the logjam in global climate politics, and for the first time, virtually every country is now offering to pitch in to help limit emissions growth.
儘管有這樣的不確定性，但有可能取得進展的樂觀情緒還是在一些外交官和科學家中日漸增長。過去兩年，中美之間的密集接觸幫助打破了全球氣候政治中的僵局，第一次出現基本上每個國家都願意參與和幫助限制排放增長的局面。
Janos Pasztor, United Nations assistant secretary general for climate change, said the task in Paris would be to put mechanisms into the deal to encourage countries to ramp up their ambitions over time. Requirements for periodic reviews and fresh pledges are under discussion as a potential part of the agreement.
聯合國負責氣候變化問題的助理祕書長的扎諾斯·帕茲爾(Janos Pasztor)表示，巴黎會議的任務是爲將要達成的協議設定機制，以鼓勵各個國家在以後隨着時間推移進一步提高本國的限排目標。定期檢查和更新承諾的要求已經納入討論，有可能成爲一項協議內容。
At a luncheon that the United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, hosted for dozens of world leaders on Sunday, the heads of state and government “agreed that Paris must be the floor, not the ceiling, for collective ambition,” Mr. Ban said afterward.
週日，在聯合國祕書長潘基文(Ban Ki-moon)爲幾十位國家領導人舉行的午宴上，各國元首和政府首腦“一致同意，巴黎會議上的協定一定得是各國都能達成的基礎目標，而不是上限，”潘基文在午宴之後說道。
Gavin A. Schmidt, head of the NASA unit in Manhattan that studies climate change, said that the history of environmental cleanup suggested that once countries got started on the problem, they would discover that solving it was cheaper and easier than expected.
位於曼哈頓、研究氣候變化的美國宇航局(NASA )分支機構的負責人加文·A·施密特(Gavin A. Schmidt)表示，環境淨化的歷史顯示，一旦各個國家開始致力解決這一問題，就會發現，解決它比想象得要容易，成本也沒那麼高。
“By the time people get 10, 15 years of actually trying to do something, that’s going to lead to greater expertise, better technology, more experience,” Dr. Schmidt said. “People will then say, ‘Oh, you know what? We can commit to do more.’ ”
“等到人們真的開始努力做這件事10年、15年之後，會出現更好的專業知識和技術，經驗也更加豐富，”施密特博士說。“那時人們會說，‘嘿，你知道嗎？我們可以作出更大的承諾。’”
The planet has already warmed by about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit above the temperature that prevailed before the Industrial Revolution, representing an enormous addition of heat. Virtually every piece of land ice on Earth is melting, the sea ice in the Arctic is collapsing, droughts and other weather extremes are intensifying, and the global food system has shown signs of instability.
相比於工業革命以前，我們這個星球的整體溫度已經增加了約1.5華氏度（合0.8攝氏度），這代表着額外增加了龐大的熱量。地球上每一塊岸冰基本上都在消融，北極的海冰正在破裂，乾旱和其他極端天氣問題也在加重，全球糧食體系已經顯示出不穩定的跡象。
At a meeting in Cancun, Mexico, in 2010, climate negotiators from nearly 200 countries agreed that they would try to limit the warming to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 2 degrees Celsius, above the preindustrial temperature, a level that would require that emissions from fossil fuels largely cease within a few decades.
2010年，在墨西哥坎昆舉行的一個會議上，來自將近兩百個國家的氣候問題談判代表表示，他們同意盡力將氣候變暖控制在高出工業革命前全球溫度3.6華氏度(合2攝氏度)的程度。而要想實現這一點，將需要在幾十年內大致消除礦物燃料類排放。
Subsequently, recognizing that many governments were reluctant to agree to binding limits, the diplomats essentially asked each country to volunteer its best efforts. That decision, controversial at the time, has unlocked a willingness by many nations to participate, including countries like China that had long resisted climate deals.
隨後，因爲意識到很多國家不願接受有約束力的排放限制，外交官們基本上只是要求每個國家主動提出自己能實現的最高目標。這一決策在當時存在爭議，但卻解決了很多國家不願意參與的問題，其中就包括中國等長期對任何氣候協議抱有抵制情緒的國家。
India is the biggest holdout so far, but that nation’s environment minister, Prakash Javadekar, said in an interview in New York on Sunday that a plan would be submitted to the United Nations on Oct. 1, the eve of the national celebration of Mahatma Gandhi’s birthday — apparently an effort to limit domestic criticism that India is bowing to Western pressure. The plan is not expected to include a target year for India’s emissions to peak, but will be “anchored” by a major commitment to renewable energy, Mr. Javadekar said.
目前，態度最消極的國家是印度，但印度環境部長普拉卡什·雅瓦德卡爾(Prakash Javadekar)在週日接受紐約時報採訪時表示，印度會在十月一日向聯合國提交一份計劃。那時正值印度舉國慶祝聖雄甘地(Mahatma Gandhi)誕辰的前夕，選擇這時間點似乎是爲減少印度民衆批評政府向西方社會壓力低頭的可能性。外界預測，這一計劃不會包含在某一目標年份達到印度最高排放量的內容，但雅瓦德卡爾說，它“肯定會”包含有關使用再生能源的重要承諾。
Last week, China announced plans for a nationwide system that would put a price on emissions of greenhouse gases. Brazil became the latest major country to pledge action, on Sunday, with a plan that makes it the first large developing nation to offer an absolute cut in emissions over the next decade, instead of just restraints on continued growth. Brazil also committed to ending illegal deforestation and to restoring millions of acres of degraded forest.
中國上週宣佈計劃，要建立一個全國性系統，對溫室氣體的排放定價。巴西則在週日成爲最新一個承諾採取行動的主要國家。巴西的計劃讓它成了首個表示要讓未來十年的排放絕對減少，而不只是對持續增長設限的大型發展中國家。巴西還承諾終結森林的非法砍伐，並讓數以百萬畝計的退化森林恢復健康。
Bruising fights are still expected at the Paris conference, especially over money. Poor countries that have had little to do with causing global warming, but are likely to suffer the worst effects, are demanding billions from rich countries to help them manage.
巴黎的會議上預計依然會出現激烈的爭吵，特別是圍繞資金。貧困國家幾乎和全球變暖的成因毫不相干，但受到的影響卻可能是最嚴重的。這些國家要求富裕國家提供數十億資金，以幫助它們應對影響。
Moreover, protests are expected from advocacy groups, island countries threatened with inundation, and many others over the perceived inadequacy of the deal. At a minimum, these groups are likely to demand strong procedures for ratcheting up national commitments over time.
此外，倡導團體、面臨被淹沒威脅的島國和其他很多人預計會爲他們眼中協議的不足之處而進行抗議。至少，這些團體可能會要求採取強有力的步驟，以便隨着時間的推移而加強各國的承諾。
“No one doubts that coming out of Paris, there’s going to be an ambition gap on the table,” said Alden Meyer, who follows climate negotiations for the Union of Concerned Scientists, in Washington. “The question is going to be, what prospect do we have to shrink it, and how quickly?”
“沒人懷疑巴黎會議結束後，談判桌上會出現目標上的差異，”憂思科學家聯盟(Union of Concerned Scientists)關注氣候談判的奧爾登·邁耶(Alden Meyer)在華盛頓說。“問題將是我們的減排前景是什麼，以及速度是多快？”
