北京的觀點 中美之間的修昔底德陷阱

China’s rising comes as the most pronounced but complicated feature of the twenty-first century.

中國的崛起作爲最重要的宣言是21世紀的複雜特色。

In the past few years people over the world especially in the Asia-Pacific region have witnessed increasing tensions in U.S.-Chinese relations from all levels and in a wide range of areas.

在過去的幾年裏全世界的人們特別是亞太地區的人們見證了在各種層級和廣度上的日漸緊張的中美關係。

Graham Allison a world-famous expert on international security and also the founding dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University was the first person to combine the concept of the “Thucydides Trap” with the analysis of China’s ongoing rise with recent commentaries published in global influential newspapers and websites such as the Financial Times the New York Times and the Atlantic. In those articles he warned that over the past five hundred years of human history twelve of all sixteen cases of global tensions resulted in shooting wars.

世界聞名的國際安全問題專家同時也在哈佛大學任職肯尼迪政府學院的院長的格雷厄姆Allison，是第一個把“修昔底德陷阱”和分析中國的持續崛起組合在一起構成概念，並與最近的評論發表在全球有影響力的報紙和網站如英國《金融時報》《紐約時報》和大西洋報。在這些文章中他警告說在過去的五百年裏人類歷史的16例全球緊張局勢中的12例導致相互敵對的戰爭。

What’s more he argued that a Thucydides trap has arisen between the United States and China in the western Pacific in recent years. Thereafter some world-class masters including Zheng Yongnian Robert Zoellick Zbigniew Brzezinski Patrick Porter and T. J. Pempel followed in using this popular term when talking about U.S.-Chinese relations today or in the years ahead regardless of their personal attitudes toward such a pessimistic term.

更重要的是他認爲近年來美國和中國之間在西太平洋地區已經發生了修昔底德陷阱。在此之後一些世界級的大師包括鄭永年、羅伯特R26;佐利克(Robert Zoellick)、布熱津斯基、帕特里克·波特和t . j . Pempel當談論到今日或未來幾年的中美關係都使用這個流行的詞彙，他們的個人態度是如此的悲觀。