禁菸未能掐滅菸草行業

The tobacco industry should be dead by now.

菸草行業到現在應該已經死亡。

Billions of dollars in lawsuits, public health campaigns, heavy restrictions on advertising, none have succeed in killing it.

數十億美元的訴訟、公共衛生宣傳、嚴格的廣告限制，都沒有成功掐滅這個行業。

Forty million Americans still smoke — 15 per cent of women and about 20 per cent of men.

美國仍有4000萬人吸菸，佔女性的15%，佔男性的20%左右。

Chances are they’ll die a decade before non-smokers but they keep lighting up.

他們可能比不吸菸者早死10年，但他們仍在吞雲吐霧。

Around the world, antismoking campaigns have succeeded in stabilising the rise in the number of smokers.

在全球範圍內，禁菸運動成功穩定了吸菸者數量的增加。

In China, sales are falling.

在中國，香菸銷售額在下滑。

In Australia, cigarettes must be sold in drab green packages covered in pictures of tumours, diseased hearts and lungs, and dying smokers.

在澳大利亞，香菸必須以單調的綠色包裝銷售，包裝上有腫瘤、患病心臟和肺以及垂死吸菸者的圖片。

The brand name can only appear in small font on the front.

品牌名稱只能以小字體出現在包裝正面。

The logic is that unbranded cigarettes are less appealing to the young who might otherwise see them as a statement of fashion or rebellion.

其邏輯是，無品牌香菸不那麼吸引年輕人，否則他們可能視其爲一種時尚或反叛的聲明。

Yet, for all this, tobacco companies have proved crafty and resilient.

然而，儘管如此，菸草公司已被證明足智多謀且靈活善變。

This week John Boehner, the Republican former speaker of the House of Representatives, joined the board of Reynolds American, the makers of Camel and Newport.

最近，美國前衆議院議長、共和黨人約翰•博納(John Boehner)加入雷諾美國(Reynolds American)董事會，該公司是駱駝香菸(Camel)和新港(Newport)香菸的生產商。

Mr Boehner is a Camel Ultra-Lights man and his job will be to speak for tobacco in Washington.

博納是駱駝超醇香菸(Camel Ultra-Lights)的愛好者，他的工作將是在華盛頓爲菸草公司辯護。

During the summer, Newport engaged in its first direct-to-consumer marketing campaign in 15 years, promoting its menthol cigarettes at music festivals around the country using the Newport Pleasure Lounge, an air-conditioned trailer for smokers.

今年夏季，新港展開了15年來首次直接面向消費者的營銷活動，利用爲吸菸者準備的一輛配有空調的拖車Newport Pleasure Lounge，在全國各地的音樂節上促銷其薄荷香菸。

Menthols, Newport reckons, have new potential among younger consumers who crave flavour.

新港估計，薄荷香菸在渴求風味的較年輕消費者中具有新的潛力。

They provide all the hit of a traditional cigarette with a cool blast of mint.

它們提供傳統香菸的所有提神效果，同時加上了一種清涼的薄荷濃香。

Anyone willing to drink Budweiser’s Lime-A-Rita beer margarita, goes the theory, will be willing to take up menthols.

按照這種理論，任何一個希望飲用百威(Budweiser)青檸麗塔啤酒(Lime-A-Rita)的人都願意嘗試薄荷香菸。

Whether these are the deranged ravings of product marketing or truth, only the market will tell.

這些是產品營銷的瘋言瘋語還是事實，只有市場能夠作出評判。

Japan Tobacco recently entered the US market with its inexpensive LD cigarettes.

日本菸草公司(Japan Tobacco)最近進入美國市場，推出了價格不高的樂迪(LD)香菸。

In North Carolina, the home of US tobacco, where prices are among the lowest, a pack of LD costs just over half the price of a pack of Marlboro.

在美國菸草的故鄉北卡羅來納州，一包樂迪香菸的售價僅爲萬寶路(Marlboro)的一半多一點，而該州的香菸價格處於全球最低之列。

Japan Tobacco’s logic is that the antismoking movement in the US is waning.

日本菸草公司的邏輯是，美國的禁菸運動正在衰落。

There are fewer lawsuits, prices keep rising and the decline in the number of smokers seems to have slowed.

訴訟數量減少，價格持續上漲，吸菸者數量的下滑趨勢似乎已放緩。

It feels as though, after years of hiding in plain sight, the tobacco industry is once again ready to strut.

感覺好像是，在經過多年在人們眼皮底下藏身後，菸草行業正準備再次昂首闊步。

Yet, for investors, the product has never stopped churning out returns.

然而，對於投資者而言，這種產品從未停止產生利潤。

A recent report from Credit Suisse covering industries with data going back to 1900 showed that tobacco had performed best, with an annualised return of 14.6 per cent compared with an average of 9.6 per cent.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)最近一份報告囊括了各種行業，數據回溯到1900年。

A dollar invested in tobacco companies in 1900 would have grown, with reinvested dividends, to $38,255 by the end of 2014.

報告顯示，菸草行業表現最佳，年化回報率達到14.6%，而平均水平爲9.6%。如果你在1900年投資菸草公司1美元，並將股息用於再投資，到2014年底這筆投資將增值至3.8255萬美元。

If you had invested the same dollar in shipbuilding and shipping, you would have a measly $1,225.

如果你用同樣的錢投資造船和航運業，你只能拿回區區1225美元。

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System sold its tobacco holdings 16 years ago, in the thick of the litigation against tobacco companies, but has said it may reconsider its decision.

16年前，加州公務員養老體系(California Public Employees’ Retirement System)出售了其在菸草公司的持股，當時抵制菸草公司的訴訟非常多，但該機構表示，可能會重新考慮其決定。

So what’s the secret? At one level, it’s simple.

那麼祕訣是什麼？從一個層面來說，很簡單。

Cigarettes are cheap to make and highly addictive, which allows for fat margins.

香菸生產成本廉價，而且很容易讓人上癮，達到豐厚利潤率的空間巨大。

And customers are loyal to their brands.

消費者忠於品牌。

Snag them when they are young and chances are you’ll have them until they give up or die.

如果在消費者年輕時就抓住機會，那麼他們就很有可能會一直吸這種品牌的香菸，直到他們戒菸或死去。

But tobacco companies have also proved remarkably innovative in the face of apparently existential threats.

但事實還證明，面對貌似生死存亡的威脅，菸草公司具有驚人的創新能力。

Chewing tobacco sales have been creeping up.

嚼煙的銷售額一直在緩慢攀升。

The market in ecigarettes, which heat tobacco fluid rather than burning cured leaves, is rapidly growing as companies figure out how deliver more nicotine per puff and send it deep into a smoker’s lungs.

電子香菸市場（加熱菸草液體，而不是燃燒捲菸）正迅速壯大，菸草公司琢磨出如何增加每口吸入的尼古丁含量並令其深入吸菸者的肺。

Sixteen per cent of school pupils aged 17-18 had smoked ecigarettes in the past year, according to US government estimates.

根據美國政府的估計，過去一年，在17至18歲的學生中，有16%吸過電子香菸。

Cigarette companies have even ridden the organic wave.

菸草公司甚至搭上了有機的浪潮。

Reynolds American makes Natural American Spirit cigarettes, which it describes as natural, additive free and made with organic tobacco.

雷諾美國生產了Natural American Spirit香菸，稱其爲天然、無添加劑而且用有機菸草生產。

The packets show a figure of a native American smoking a long pipe.

香菸包裝上是一張美國原住民抽旱菸的圖片。

Antismoking campaigners say, call them what you like, the cigarettes are just as bad for you as any other.

禁菸活動人士（你怎麼稱呼都行）表示，這種香菸和其他香菸一樣對人體有害。

But the marketing message — that somehow in smoking them you are tapping into some ancient, herbal ritual — goes down especially well with hipsters.

但這種營銷信息（吸這種煙會讓你重拾一些古老的、草本的儀式）尤其受到潮人的歡迎。

A packet of Natural American Spirit is acceptable in environments where Marlboro is not.

在萬寶路不被接受的某些環境，一包Natural American Spirit可以讓人接受。

Tobacco companies also benefit from rising incomes in emerging economies.

菸草公司還受益於新興經濟體收入的日益增加。

Even if the number of smokers is stagnant or falling in many places, you can keep pushing up the price of cigarettes as wages rise in emerging markets to compensate.

即便很多地區的吸菸者數量不增或下降，隨着新興市場的薪資上漲，你仍可以推高香菸價格作爲彌補。

If you put aside the health consequences, a pack of 20 remains a cheap thrill.

如果你拋開健康後果，一包20支的香菸仍然是一種廉價的刺激。

For those who have rightly been banging on for years about the iniquity of tobacco companies, it must be maddening.

對於那些多年來正當抨擊菸草公司罪惡的人而言，這肯定令人惱火。

For every blow they land, the industry feints into new areas of profitability.

每當他們展開抨擊時，該行業都會虛晃一槍，進入新的盈利領域。

It seems quite possible that, 100 years from now, it will still be churning out cash at a rate to turn the rest of the Dow Jones green.

100年後，該行業仍將實現高額利潤，而其利潤率將讓道瓊斯指數(Dow Jones)其他股票豔羨。