美國大選是全世界的事情
In the last century, the US homeland suffered a terrible foreign attack at Pearl Harbor, and again on 9/11.
在過去一個世紀裏，美國本土兩次遭受了可怕的外國攻擊，第一次是在珍珠港，還有一次是9/11恐怖襲擊。
Each time, the American response changed the world order.
每次美國的迴應都改變了世界秩序。
But that’s about it.
但也就這麼多了。
Add on a few smaller terrorist atrocities, and the total death toll from foreign action on US soil these past 100 years is somewhere under 6,000.
再加上寥寥幾次規模較小的恐怖襲擊事件，美國本土過去100年死於外國襲擊活動的人數不足6000人。
The Bosnian town of Srebrenica lost more people in a single Serb massacre in 1995.
1995年波斯尼亞斯雷布雷尼察市(Srebrenica)被塞族人一次屠殺的人就不止這麼多。
The US inhabits a gated mansion in the safest neighbourhood in geopolitics.
從地緣政治角度來說，美國居住在最安全地段的封閉式豪宅。
Even if the Red Army had rolled across western Europe, life in Alabama or Ohio would have been almost undisturbed.
即便俄羅斯軍隊長驅直入西歐，阿拉巴馬州或俄亥俄州的生活也幾乎不會受到影響。
It’s telling that when Donald Trump launched his presidential campaign, he had to invent a foreign bogeyman, the Mexican rapist.
頗能說明問題的是，當唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)發起總統競選活動的時候，他不得不發明一個外國魔鬼——來自墨西哥的強姦犯。
The US is immune to the world in a way that British Brexiters can only fantasise about.
美國與世界隔絕的程度，英國退歐派人士只能幻想。
This means that the American election probably matters more to foreigners than it does to most Americans.
這意味着，美國選舉對外國人的影響很可能比它對大多數美國人的影響更大。
The US president has the power to protect the rest of the world, mess us up or simply ignore us.
美國總統有實力保護全球其他國家，把別國搞得一團糟，或者乾脆忽視我們。
No country can exist in glorious isolation, but the US very nearly can.
任何國家都不能完全與世隔絕，但美國非常接近這種境界。
Long before this election campaign, it was already retreating from a pesky world.
早在此次總統大選之前，美國就已經從麻煩不斷的世界抽身。
Barack Obama has spent eight years trying to ditch the global policeman’s baton – although, as Xenia Wickett of Chatham House notes, he didn’t bother to explain his policy and therefore this was often interpreted simply as weakness.
巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)花了8年時間努力扔掉世界警察的警棍——儘管正如英國皇家國際事務研究所(Chatham House)的克塞尼婭.維克特(Xenia Wickett)所指出的，他沒有花費精力解釋自己的政策，因此往往被解讀爲只是出於軟弱。
Trump offers a grotesque caricature of American isolationism, but even presuming Hillary Clinton wins, the US has lost its urge to meddle in faraway countries of which it knows nothing.
特朗普描繪了一幅美國孤立主義的荒誕漫畫，但即便假設希拉里.克林頓(Hillary Clinton)贏得大選，美國也失去了對自己一無所知的遙遠國家進行干預的衝動。
Scarier for us foreigners than American isolationism is American irresponsibility.
對我們外國人來說，比美國孤立主義更可怕的是美國的不負責任。
This too is a luxury that only an extraordinarily safe country can afford.
這也是隻有極度安全的國家才能負擔得起的奢侈品。
Donald Trump is such an impulse-driven ignoramus that in one poll for the Lincoln Leadership Initiative, his own supporters thought there was a 22 per cent chance that he would start a nuclear war.
唐納德.特朗普極爲衝動且無知，以至於在林肯領導倡議(Lincoln Leadership Initiative)進行的一項民調中，他自己的支持者都認爲，他發動核戰爭的可能性達到22%。
Nonetheless, just six weeks before the election he had a 50:50 shot at becoming president.
然而，就在大選投票的6周前，特朗普還有一半的機率當選總統。
He might still win.
他仍有可能贏得大選。
His astonishing run could probably happen only in a country that feels secure enough to subsume its politics into TV entertainment and culture war.
他的令人錯愕的人氣很可能只會發生在一個自認爲足夠安全、可以將政治融入電視娛樂和文化戰爭的國家裏。
Europe produces xenophobic populists too, but they tend to be better-informed xenophobic populists such as Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders, and anyway, they cannot destroy the world.
歐洲也涌現仇外的民粹主義者，但他們往往是馬琳.勒龐(Marine Le Pen)和海爾特.維爾德斯(Geert Wilders)等更接地氣的仇外民粹主義者，再說無論如何，他們不可能毀掉世界。
Abroad seems tiny to most American voters — and yet it’s the only place where their presidents can have much impact.
在大多數美國選民眼裏，國外是個小地方，然而這是他們的總統唯一可以產生巨大影響的地方。
At home, a president is usually stymied by Congress.
在國內，總統通常受到國會的掣肘。
Obama probably did less than the iPhone to change most Americans’ lives.
要說改變大多數美國人的生活，奧巴馬的影響很可能還沒有iPhone大。
But if a president suddenly feels an itch to transform some foreign country, he can do it.
但如果一位總統突然心癢難耐地想要改變某個國家，他是可以做到的。
Foreigners therefore swing between two fears about the US: either that it will hurt us or, at times like now, that it will forget us.
外國人因此在對美國的兩種擔憂中搖擺：既怕它傷害我們，又怕它像現在這樣忘掉我們。
Europe is a pretty good neighbourhood nowadays but compared with the US it remains uncomfortably close to the action.
如今歐洲是相當宜居的地段，但與美國相比，它依然令人不安地靠近戰亂。
A French foreign minister once used a rare tête-à-tête in the back of a limousine with his president, Jacques Chirac, to ask why he was always so friendly to Russia.
一位法國外長曾經利用在豪車後座與時任總統雅克.希拉剋(Jacques Chirac)密談的難得機會，質問他爲何總是對俄羅斯那麼友好。
Because, said Chirac, when I look at the map of Europe, I see a lot of sweet little countries, and right next to them, this massive great bear.
希拉剋說道：因爲，當我查看歐洲地圖的時候，我看到許多可愛的小國家，而就在它們旁邊是這個龐大的熊。
So I’m nice to the bear.
因此我對這隻熊客客氣氣。
To Europe’s south-east is a violent ghetto with 24-hour shooting, while just south of the stream there are people dying of hunger.
歐洲東南方向是一塊暴力貧民區，24小時隨時可能聽到槍聲，而更靠南的地方則有人因飢餓而死亡。
And as the current French president François Hollande says, The US will ask Europeans to defend themselves.
正如法國現任總統弗朗索瓦.奧朗德(François Hollande)所說的那樣，美國將會要求歐洲人自己保護自己。
That’s a problem, because merely creating our own neighbourhood watch committee will probably always be beyond us.
這是一個問題，因爲僅僅組建歐洲自己的鄰里守望委員會就很可能超出了我們的能力範圍。
The UK is now consumed with Brexit (making it even less useful as an American ally), the French army is busy patrolling French streets and, in military terms, the other European states are what the French disdainfully call vegetarians.
英國正忙着處理退歐事宜（這讓它作爲美國盟友的有用程度進一步減弱），法國軍隊忙着巡邏法國街道，而從軍事上說，其他歐洲國家被法國人輕蔑地稱爲素食主義者。
Most European foreign action is now led by Angela Merkel.
歐洲的大部分海外行動由安格拉.默克爾(Angela Merkel)主導。
Though Americans and even Germans are expending lots of energy trying to work out what kind of power Germany is becoming, it definitely won’t be a hard power.
儘管美國人（甚至德國人）投入大量精力研究德國會成爲哪類強國，但它肯定不會是一個施展硬實力的國家。
Vladimir Putin has just sent nuclear weapons into Kaliningrad, between Poland and Lithuania.
弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)剛剛在位於波蘭和立陶宛之間的加里寧格勒(Kaliningrad)部署了核武器。
All of Europe risks ending up where eastern Europe used to be: inside Russia’s sphere of influence.
整個歐洲最終可能淪落到當年東歐的處境：處於俄羅斯的勢力範圍內。
Still, that might not turn out disastrously.
話雖如此，最終這可能不是災難性的。
Putin is not stupid, says Daniel Keohane of the Centre for Security Studies in Zurich.
蘇黎世安全研究中心(Centre for Security Studies)的丹尼爾.基奧恩(Daniel Keohane)表示：普京並不蠢。
I’m not sure he is keen to have an actual war with a Nato member state.
我確信他不會渴望真的與北約成員國打一仗。
Putin probably prefers just to make a big nuisance of himself, thinks Keohane.
基奧恩認爲，普京很可能只是想製造些大麻煩。
The worst consequences of American isolation would therefore fall on the Middle East: what happens there if the US can no longer maintain the delicate Iranian-Saudi balance?
因此，美國孤立主義的最糟糕後果將落在中東：如果美國不再能夠保持伊朗與沙特之間的微妙平衡，那裏將會發生什麼？
Whatever happens, it probably won’t be felt on American main streets.
無論發生什麼，美國普通人很可能感覺不到。
As this election shows, the world’s most powerful country isn’t very interested in the world.
正如此次選舉表明的那樣，這個世界上最強大的國家對世界沒多大興趣。
