Netflix將花落誰家 阿里巴巴成爲討論對象

After Netflix’s stock dropped significantly last month, billionaire Mark Cuban raised his stakes in the company on the conviction that the online video streaming service is a prime takeover target. Regardless of whether he’s right, the more interesting question is who could be the most logical buyer?

上個月，在線視頻流媒體服務商Netflix股價暴跌。億萬富翁馬克o庫班隨後增持了該公司股份，原因是他相信前者是一個絕佳的收購對象。無論他是對是錯，更有趣的問題在於，誰纔是最符合邏輯的買家。

With 50.1 million subscribers at the end of the third quarter, Netflix is an attractive target for a wide range of companies looking to leverage its large and growing subscriber base. The company has also made meaningful inroads into six European countries this year, expanding its global reach and brand name. Its moves to produce original programming like House of Cards and Orange is the New Black has also paid off handsomely.

截至今年第三季度末，Netflix擁有5010萬用戶。對於很多公司來說，Netflix十分誘人，因爲它們都想利用其不斷增長的龐大用戶羣體。今年，該公司還在六個歐洲國家取得了實質性進展，擴大了全球覆蓋範圍，提升了知名度。同時，Netflix開始製作原創連續劇，比如《紙牌屋》（House of Cards），另一部原創連續劇《女子監獄》（Orange is the New Black）也帶來了不俗的回報。

But with a market capitalization of $23 billion and trading at a multiple north of a 100 times earnings per share, the company may be too expensive for most buyers. That narrows down the field of potential acquirers and demands a solid strategic rationale for a takeover.

然而，Netflix的市值已經達到230億美元，目前股價對應的市盈率超過了100倍。對大多數買家來說，該公司都可能過於昂貴。這縮小了潛在買家的範圍，也要求他們在實施收購時拿出有力的戰略依據。

Two obvious, and often touted, potential suitors are Amazon AMZN 0.58% and Apple AAPL 1.30% , which have the cash and appetite to acquire a company like Netflix. The problem, however, is that both Amazon and Apple have competing streaming video products that are established in their own right. Buying Netflix might save them money in content acquisition because of the overlap, but it could also cannibalize their existing offerings and possibly interfere with the strategic purpose those offerings serve.

顯而易見而且經常掛在人們嘴邊的潛在收購者有兩家，分別是亞馬遜公司（Amazon）和蘋果公司（Apple）。它們既有資金又有收購意願。不過，問題在於這兩家公司都有自己親手打造的流媒體視頻產品，而這些產品和Netflix存在競爭關係。考慮到內容上的重疊，收購Netflix可能會節省兩家公司用於購買內容的資金，但這同樣有可能擠佔它們現有產品的空間，擾亂這些產品的戰略目標。

While Amazon’s 1.6% share of the streaming market is still small, it boasts a large video library and uses Prime Instant Video as a marketing tool to increase its paid membership for Prime. Along the same lines, Amazon is likely to make acquisitions that expand its Prime membership and keep customers hooked to the program for the long-term, or as in the case of its acquisition of online gaming site Twitch, buy companies that truly complement its offerings instead of doubling up on them.

亞馬遜在流媒體市場中的份額爲1.6%，依然很小。但該公司擁有龐大的視頻庫，而且已經把尊享即時視頻（Prime Instant Video）作爲營銷手段來吸引更多的該服務付費用戶。按照同樣的思路，亞馬遜可能借助收購來擴大尊享服務用戶羣，並讓消費者長期使用這項服務；或者，就像收購在線遊戲網站Twitch那樣，拿下一些切實與自身產品有互補性的公司，而不是讓收購造成業務重疊。

Given this, the primary reason to buy Netflix NFLX -0.03% would be to sell Prime to its subscribers. But since the average annual cost of Netflix (about $100) is the same as a yearly Prime membership of $99, and since consumers aren’t likely to pay the fee twice, Amazon would be forced to bundle the two — effectively giving away Prime for free to reach Netflix subscribers. It’s also unclear how many Netflix subscribers already shop at Amazon (or could become shoppers naturally without a merger between the two companies).

考慮到這一點，亞馬遜收購Netflix的最主要原因應該是向後者的用戶推廣尊享即時視頻服務。但Netflix的平均年費（約100美元）和尊享用戶的年費（99美元）相當，而且消費者不太可能重複付費，如果收購Netflix，亞馬遜就可能被迫把這兩項服務捆綁在一起，這實際上相當於把尊享服務白送給Netflix用戶。同時，還不清楚有多少Netflix用戶已經開始在亞馬遜網站上購物（或者有可能在雙方不合並的情況下自然而然地成爲亞馬遜用戶）。

What all this implies is that there is rationale for some type of marketing partnership between Amazon and Netflix, but not necessarily a merger.

所有這些都表明，亞馬遜和Netflix應該在營銷方面進行某種形式的合作，但不一定非得合併。

By contrast, iTunes sells its content via downloads. Netflix’s subscription model would be complementary to its service, but with a hefty 65% of the downloads market, it’s hard to see why Apple would risk this revenue stream by offering subscription-based content that it can sell individually instead. Also, it’s true that iTunes’ revenue growth is slowing, but Apple’s strategy of a self-contained universe of i-products has been so successful that it is unlikely to dilute its powerful branded platform by inviting an outsider into the family.

和Netflix不同，iTunes通過下載來出售內容。Netflix的訂閱模式可以和iTunes形成互補。但iTunes在下載市場的份額高達65%。很難想象，在可以單獨出售各項內容的情況下，蘋果公司會提供內容訂閱服務，從而讓自己的收入面臨風險。同時，儘管iTunes的收入增速確實正在放慢，但鑑於用i字頭產品構建獨立體系的策略一直都非常成功，蘋果不太可能因爲引進非嫡系產品而淡化自己強大的品牌平臺。

In addition, even though Apple has $155 billion in cash and securities on its balance sheet, it tends to use that money for share buybacks and for purchasing small companies primarily for their intellectual property or talent as opposed to sustaining its businesses. The $3 billion Beats acquisition was an exception but that has a lot to do with Apple’s focus on music. This puts Netflix far outside of Apple’s desired scope, at least for now.

此外，儘管持有1550億美元的現金和證券，蘋果公司一般都會把這些資金用於回購股票，或收購小公司，後者的主要目標是其知識產權或人才，而不是延續被收購方的業務。斥資30億美元收購耳機制造商Beats是個例外，此舉在很大程度上都源於蘋果對音樂的關注。因此，Netflix離蘋果關注的目標羣體還很遠，至少目前如此。

Another potential acquirer could be Comcast CMCSA 0.51% , soon to be Comcast-Time Warner. The combination of Comcast and Time Warner, upon government approval, will create the biggest cable provider in the U.S. with 30 million subscribers. However, despite its market power, Comcast is now facing a growing challenge of consumers wanting to cut the cable cord. As services like Netflix, Hulu, and now even HBO and Showtime provide consumers with most of the content they want over the Internet, the traditional cable model is breaking down.

另一個潛在買家是康卡斯特（Comcast），該公司很快就會成爲康卡斯特-時代華納（Comcast-Time Warner）的一部分。如獲得美國政府的批准，這次合併將締造美國最大的有線電視公司，其用戶將達到3000萬。不過，儘管康卡斯特在市場中擁有強大的支配力，但該公司目前也面臨着與日俱增的挑戰，原因是越來越多的用戶不想繼續使用有線電視服務。隨着Netflix、Hulu，甚至是HBO和Showtime爲消費者提供了大多數他們所需的在線內容，傳統的有線電視模式正在節節敗退。

By acquiring Netflix, Comcast could bundle the company’s video streaming portal with its own broadband access service, which might help it to replace customers that it loses on the cable side. A merger would also help Netflix, which was forced to pay a fee to Comcast to avoid being slowed down over the company’s network.

如果收購Netflix，康卡斯特就可能把前者的視頻流媒體門戶網站和自己的寬帶服務捆綁在一起，此舉或許有助於康卡斯特彌補有線電視用戶的流失。二者的合併也將有利於Netflix，因爲它一直被迫向康卡斯特繳費，以免後者的網絡給它帶來播放延遲。

Still, there are two wrinkles here. First, President Obama’s recent call on the FCC to enforce net neutrality could prevent companies like Comcast from selectively slowing down Internet traffic and therefore obviate the need for Netflix to pursue a transaction with the cable operator, making the buyer more eager than the seller (although the head of the FCC has pushed back on the idea). In that situation, Comcast might have to pay a very large premium to obtain Netflix.

不過，康卡斯特牽手Netflix仍存在兩個障礙。首先，美國總統奧巴馬最近要求聯邦通信委員會（FCC）加強網絡的中立性，這有可能造成康卡斯特這樣的公司無法有選擇性地降低網速。這樣，Netflix就不一定要和康卡斯特合併，從而規避賣家不急買家急的局面（儘管FCC負責人已經把奧巴馬的要求頂了回去）。在這種情況下，康卡斯特或許不得不以非常高的溢價收購Netflix。

The other problem would be anti-trust approval. Ironically, the scope of the synergy between these two companies and the combined reach they would have makes this transaction highly improbable, if not impossible. Comcast’s deal with Time Warner has drawn plenty of fire from market watchers with anti-competitive concerns stemming from such a mega-merger, and any further moves by Comcast down this road could be a non-starter for the Department of Justice.

另一個障礙是反壟斷審批。具有諷刺意味的是，鑑於Netflix和康卡斯特的協同效應之大以及兩公司業務共同覆蓋的範圍之廣，二者合併的可能性已經變得非常之低，甚至毫無希望。康卡斯特和時代華納的合併已經遭到了市場觀察人士的猛烈抨擊，原因是他們擔心這項超級併購可能產生反競爭效應。如果康卡斯特在併購方面還想有進一步的動作，就可能會遭到美國司法部的否決。

That brings us to the most appropriate suitor for Netflix – Chinese ecommerce behemoth Alibaba BABA -3.01% , which recently went public.

最後，我們找到了最適合收購Netflix的公司——近期剛剛上市的中國電子商務巨無霸阿里巴巴。

Flushed with cash after going public, Alibaba could potentially have up to $50 billion to spend. The company is also looking to grow through acquisitions in the U.S. More importantly, it wants to create a streaming video presence in China to compete with domestic players like YoukuTodou and , and has partnered with Lions Gate Entertainment LGF 0.41% to launch a new service.

上市後的阿里巴巴財力雄厚，可支配資金最多有望達到500億美元。而且，該公司正打算通過在美國的收購來實現增長。更重要的是，阿里巴巴希望在中國建立自己的流媒體視頻業務，以便和優酷土豆以及搜狐等國內視頻服務商抗衡。同時，它已經和獅門娛樂（Lions Gate Entertainment）聯手，推出一項新業務。

While Lions Gate is a successful movie and television producer and distributor, it has no experience in running an online content portal and is potentially limited in its content relationships unlike a pure-play distributor like Netflix. If Alibaba really wants to crack the streaming video market, it would benefit more from the technological and marketing expertise of the leading player in the space rather than start from scratch with Lions Gate.

雖然獅門娛樂的影視製作發行業務很成功，但是該公司在經營內容門戶網站方面毫無經驗。和Netflix這樣的純發行商不同，獅門娛樂在內容合作方面的作用可能有限。如果阿里巴巴真的想打進流媒體視頻市場，能讓它受益更多的應該是利用行業領軍企業的技術和營銷專長，而不是和獅門娛樂一起從零開始。

It may be that Alibaba’s goal isn’t just to launch a new video service but to make a splash in Hollywood through production. But there too, Netflix could be a solid partner given its aggressive entry into series creation and now into movies as well. Netflix has also said that it will double its spending on original content in 2014, some of which could be channeled into producing exclusive content for China while the rest continues to support the U.S. and other markets. In other words, by acquiring Netflix, Alibaba would gain a powerful brand name, a global streaming footprint (spanning 50 countries), and a plug-and-play operation for the $470 million Chinese online video market.

阿里巴巴的目的也許不僅僅是打造視頻業務，它可能還想通過影視製作在好萊塢闖出一些名堂。但在這方面，Netflix也有可能是個可靠的合作伙伴——它已經在連續劇製作領域大展拳腳，而且開始涉足電影。Netflix還表示，2014年該公司在原創內容領域的投資將翻一番，而且其中一些資金可能用於製作專門針對中國市場的內容，其餘資金將繼續爲美國和其他市場提供支持。換句話說，如果收購Netflix，阿里巴巴就會獲得一個響亮的品牌，對全球流媒體市場的覆蓋（橫跨50個國家），以及一項“即插即用”的視頻業務，用於開拓價值4.7億美元的中國在線視頻市場。

For Netflix’s part, slowing domestic user growth means the company needs to expand actively into new markets, a point that CFO David Wells stressed during an investor event. While the Chinese market is not an easy one to navigate – challenges range from government restrictions and piracy of content to hesitation from consumers to pay for online video – Alibaba, with its size and local clout, could help Netflix succeed in that environment. And with its growing expenditures on original content and rapid push into international markets likely to cost a lot of money, Netflix could benefit from Alibaba’s balance sheet.

對Netflix來說，國內用戶增長放緩意味着它需要積極開拓新市場。該公司的首席財務官戴維o韋爾斯在投資者見面日上已經強調過這一點。雖然在中國發展並非易事——其中存在諸多挑戰，包括政府的限制、盜版以及讓消費者爲網絡視頻付費等等，但阿里巴巴的業務規模和國內影響力可能有助於Netflix在這樣的環境下取得成功。此外，原創內容支出的不斷增長和在國際市場的迅猛發展可能會耗費大量資金，這種情況下Netflix還可能從阿里巴巴的殷實家底中受益。

Finally, with Netflix currently trading 20% down from its 52-week high, and the Lions Gate investment not yet complete, now would be a good time for Alibaba to explore talks. Given his long bet on Netflix, Mark Cuban would be happy.

最後，Netflix目前股價比它一年中的最高點低20%，而且獅門娛樂的投資還沒有完全到位，現在應該是阿里巴巴進行接觸的好機會。考慮到馬克o庫班對Netflix的長遠打算，此舉應該會讓他開心不已。

Sanjay Sanghoee is a business commentator. He has worked at investment banks Lazard Freres and Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, at hedge fund Ramius Capital, and has an MBA from Columbia Business School. He does not own any shares of Netflix, Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Time Warner or Alibaba.

Sanjay Sanghoee是一位商業評論家。他曾在知名投行拉扎德（Lazard Freres）和德利佳華（Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein）就職，還曾爲對衝基金RamiusCapital效力。他擁有哥倫比亞商學院（Columbia Business School）的MBA學位，在Netflix、亞馬遜公司、蘋果公司、康卡斯特、時代華納和阿里巴巴都沒有持股。